Is global warming changing weather patterns during Indian monsoons? This is what research suggests

Amid the ongoing monsoon season in India, many states are reeling under harsh rains and flash floods. On the 8th of July India's financial capital, Mumbai received more than 300 mm (11.8 inches) of rain in six hours, crippling life of 12 million people.

Similarly, the northeastern Assam state was hit by floods induced by heavy rains, killing at least 66 people and affecting 3 million people in four districts.

India relies heavily on monsoons for agricultural purposes, bringing a sight of relief for the farmers. But in the last few decades, the same weather pattern has become a worry as it brings widespread destruction and displacement.

A study by American Geophysical Union, published in 2020, showed that the most devastating floods in the past two decades like the Kerala floods in August 2018, the Chennai floods in 2015, the Uttarakhand floods in June 2013, Leh floods in June 2010 and Mumbai floods in June 2005 had a same weather phenomenon in common.

The floods were caused when multiple low-pressure systems occurred together spatially and temporally to create a deep convention system and led to large-scale heavy rainfall.

Apart from climate change, many poorly planned developmental projects have caused catastrophic climatic events in India in the recent past.

In 2023, the flash floods in Himachal Pradesh killed about 150 people and caused the destruction of property worth 10, 000 crores. Many experts opined that the rampant hydropower projects and uncontrolled tourist influx contributed to the extreme weather events and made the landscape unstable.

Similarly, improper dam management in the eastern Vidarbha region in Maharashtra caused flooding in the area in 2020, damaging nearly 90 hectares of farmland and submerging 4 districts.

Over the years, the monsoon-related deaths and floods have only increased. In 2023, the then Minister of State for Jal Shakti ministry Bishweswar Tadu said that 17,422 people have died due to floods from 2012 to 2021. The highest number of deaths stood at 2754 in 2019. It also caused massive destruction to crops, houses and public utilities, with the government incurring losses amounting to Rs 2.76 lakh crore.

Water bodies encroached

One of the reasons being attributed to flash floods is the encroachment of water bodies, heavy rainfalls, insufficient drainage and siltation in rivers.

A report by the Jal Shakti Ministry revealed that more than 2,400 water bodies have been encroached. Surprisingly, 97.1% of encroachment has taken place in rural areas. Water bodies act as natural reservoirs as they soak in excess rainwater and prevent flooding in adjoining areas. However. rampant construction has caused these natural wetlands to go extinct.

How is Indian govt preparing

The Central government in its XII Plan, approved the continuation of “Flood Management Programme” with an outlay of Rs.10,000 crore. Under this, the government has been developing and rejuvenating water bodies across the country, carrying out intensive afforestation, and creating awareness.

With global warming and harsh weather events becoming more frequent than ever before, it begs the question of whether India, with a 1.43 billion population, is taking concrete steps to tackle the new reality of hash monsoons and flash floods.