UP Elections 2022: Will UP 2022 be a bipolar contest between BJP and SP?

UP Elections 2022: It's the beginning of winter in North India but poll heat is well and truly on in Uttar Pradesh.

BJP, SP, BSP and Congress are jostling in the political mahakumbh. On the face of it appears to be a 4-corner fight. But is the 2022 UP election going to be a bipolar contest between the BJP and the SP? Will Mayawati's BSP and Priyanka-driven Congress just be also-rans after the votes are cast?

A recent survey by C-voter has predicted a return for the Yogi sarkaar, but with a reduced number- the saffron party which won a landslide with 312 seats in 2017, is predicted to win 213 to 221 seats -a net loss of about a 100 seats. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party, which won just 48 seats in 2017, is likely to get between 152 and 160 seats, a big jump but still about 60 seats behind the BJP.

The survey has bad news for the BSP and the Congress as both the parties are likely to repeat the dismal 2017 show.

A look at the vote share in 2017 and the likely change also tells a story.

In 2017, BJP got 40% votes; the party is predicted to retain it and get about 41% votes this time around, according to the C-voter survey. Whereas the SP, which got 22% votes last time, is likely to increase its vote share to about 31% in 2022. The BSP is predicted to come down from 22% in 2017 to 15%. The BSP's loss is likely to be the SP's gain.

So with the BJP holding on to its vote share and SP making gains with the ant-BJP vote, it's likely that the poll battle will be majorly between the Lotus and the Cycle.

According to the C-voter survey, 48% of respondents ranked Yogi's 5 years as good governance, while 45% said that Akhilesh did a better job as CM between 2012 and 2017. This number also pitches Akhilesh and Yogi in a direct contest for the hot seat.

It's also interesting to see how SP's graph has moved up in the November survey by C-voter from the one done in October. In October the survey showed 241 to 249 seats for the BJP and 130 to 138 seats for the SP. In a month, Akhilesh has climbed about 30 seats. It's also clear from the BJP's campaign strategy till now that it sees Akhilesh as the main challenger. Thus, direct attacks on the SP from the BJP camp, PM Modi downwards.

Enter polarisation

The rising SP stock has seen BJP's attempt to keep the campaign in its comfort zone of 'Hindu-Muslim' narrative. The state's 20% Muslim vote plays a role here. In a likely bipolar contest, the Muslim vote will majorly go to the SP. Thus the BJP attempt at painting SP as a pro-Muslim party. With the tried and tested rhetoric around Kabristan, Jinnah and the alleged exodus of Hindus, the BJP has pulled out its polarisation arsenal in full force.

Recently Yogi visited the families in Western UP's Kairana who had allegedly fled out of fear and have now returned. It's seen as an attempt to keep the Jat-Muslim divide that was created in 2013, which now seems to be bridging in the wake of the farmers agitation and Modi govt's handling of the protests.

Looks like the UP 2022 is set in the polarisation template. Stay ready to hear more of Jinnah, Taliban, Kabristan. Vikas, you can wait.

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