According to the last census in 2011, Dalits account for nearly 21% of the total population in Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh, unlike other states in the country, doesn’t reserve the caste matrix for social and cultural spheres
Caste in UP exists loudly in the electoral arena
It’s a debate for another day then why then the lack of a case census is a shortcoming for any or all electoral analysis
But, let’s do with the numbers we have
From the estimated 21% strong bloc of Scheduled Castes and a minuscule Scheduled Tribe - Jatavs dominate the SC vote with almost 55% stake. Then come the non-Jatavs - the Pasis, Dhobis, Koris, Khatiks, Dhanuks and other non-Jatav communtities
The grand old party enjoyed the support of this bloc for decades after independence. Then came the game changer in 1990s - Kanshi Ram’s Bahujan Samaj Party aka the Dalit party
Historically, BSP has always had the allegiance of the Dalit bloc since its inception, barring the peak of the Ram Janmbhoomi movement when the bloc aligned with BJP
Let’s focus on post Y2K allegiance -
In 2002, BSP garnered 23.06% of the total vote share, winning 98 seats in the Assembly
Then came Mayawati’s master stroke in 2007 - the Brahmin-Dalit alliance strategy that led the party to absolute majority in the state. From 23% to over 30% vote share. A jump from 98 seats to 206 seats.
In 2012, wooed by the Hindutva pitch, Brahmins chose saffron and dumped BSP. The party’s vote share dropped to 25.91% and it gained only 80 seats.
Angry with Behenji for alleged preference to Jatavs - her own caste - the non-Jatav Dalits who constitute 43% of the bloc came under the saffron umbrella
BJP exploited this Jatav vs Non-Jatav fault line for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls
Performance further dwindled in 2017 - BSP won 19 seats - just 5% of the total Assembly. But the party’s share in the total votes casted was 22.3%, ahead of Samajwadi Party’s 21.82%
There is chatter of BSP losing its grip over the Dalit bloc. Other parties have taken cognisance of this development
In its very first list of 107 candidates, BJP fielded 19 Dalits of which 12 were Jatavs
Accusing BSP of deviation from the ideals of B R Ambedkar, Akhilesh Yadav has called for Samajwadi & Ambedkarite unity
AIMIM is canvassing with Bhagidari Parivartan Morcha. Owaisi has said that if they win, they’d appoint two CMs - one Dalit and one OBC.
Too much caste-based politics? Yes, it is. But, it translates into votes.
There are 17 districts where the SC population is more than 25 to up to 41%. Dalits steer the wheel on 67 seats due to their sheer number.
Then there are also the crucial 86 reserved seats in Uttar Pradesh - 84 for SCs and 2 for STs.
Post-poll analysis dictates, whoever wins over 65% of these seats, forms the government.
Okay, it’s time. Let’s talk about the elephant not in the room!
Amid the spectacle and cacophony of election campaign, Mayawati is silent. The Dalit czarina doesn't seem to be fighting this election at all.
All through the high-octane UP campaign, there has been a curious silence in the BSP camp. Apart from her customary press conferences where she reads out of the written text and leaves, and some tweets, Mayawati has been missing from the hurly burly of the poll activity.
Curious indeed for a 4-time chief minister of the state, who seems to have withdrawn from the election. She addressed her first election rally in Agra on February 9, just a day before the state started voting.
In that rally Mayawati reserved her sharpest attacks on Congress and the SP, while appearing to be soft on the BJP. The BSP appeared again for a second rally on Feb 16 in Lucknow.
In recent times, Mayawati’s preoccupation has been to hand over her legacy and her party to Akash Anand, her young London-returned nephew who was anointed as the “heir”, and her brother, Anand Kumar, who was re-appointed as the BSP’s national vice-president.
The question is, can the elephant still shake itself out of the slumber or is too late?
