U.S Presidential Elections 2024: Trump or Harris? Who’s Better for the Economy?

As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, a new UBS Investor Watch survey reveals that wealthy investors and business owners are deeply divided on which candidate is better for the economy. According to the survey, 57% of investors plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, while 43% favor former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, 53% of business owners back Trump, compared to 47% supporting Harris.

Both groups are overwhelmingly concerned about the economy, with 84% of investors and 83% of business owners identifying it as their top issue. The survey shows that Trump is considered better suited to handle taxes and immigration, while Harris is viewed more favorably on healthcare and green energy policies. However, both groups are split on who is best to address Social Security.

Despite the division, investor optimism is on the rise. Seventy-four percent of investors are highly optimistic about portfolio returns over the next six months, a significant increase from 57% in 2020. Business owners are also feeling positive, with 74% expressing optimism for the next twelve months compared to 68% four years ago.

The survey indicates that financial planning will play a critical role in navigating the economic uncertainty of the election year. Seventy-seven percent of investors are considering portfolio changes ahead of the election, with a focus on adjusting sector allocations, increasing cash holdings, and adding portfolio protections. Sector preferences also vary depending on the candidate: healthcare and sustainable investing are seen as more favorable if Harris wins, while defense, energy, and industrials are expected to thrive under Trump.

Ultimately, this election’s outcome will significantly shape the future of the U.S. economy, and investors and business owners are preparing accordingly.