India's GDP expected to register over 8 pc growth in Sep-Dec: Report

The Indian economy is expected to record a growth rate closer to 8.1 per cent in the September-December quarter under the revised series with the new base year of 2022-23, a report said on Tuesday.

The country witnessed a growth rate of 8 per cent in the first half of the ongoing financial year ending in March 2026.

According to the first advance estimate of the National Statistics Office (NSO) last month, real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.4 per cent in FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 6.5 per cent in the previous financial year.

The second advance estimates of GDP for FY26, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27.

So, all the previous quarterly numbers of the first quarter and the second quarter are expected to change with the change in base year to 2022-23.

"High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in 3QFY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season," a report from State Bank of India's Economic Research Department said.

"Overall, we expect Q3FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 8.1 per cent. Given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision," it said.

It further said Scheduled Commercial Banks’ (SCBs) deposit growth remains muted compared to credit growth.

As per the latest RBI data, aggregate deposits grew by 12.5 per cent, while credit grew by 14.6 per cent.

With the rise in CD ratio, the gap between deposits and credit growth has increased, but such gaps are nothing new to the banking system, it said.