India not yet a $4 trillion economy; but we are close, say economists

India is, without a doubt, one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, it is not yet a $4 trillion economy, as claimed by a recent screenshot that went viral.

Social media has been abuzz with a screenshot claiming that India's GDP had reached $4 trillion, sparking discussions of India surpassing the UK as the third-largest economy. However, this is not the case.

Economists have pointed out that while India has not reached the milestone, it is close. Projected budget numbers say that India's GDP is around $3.63 trillion. Economists like Madan Sabnavis from Bank of Baroda dismissed the likelihood of India hitting the $4 trillion mark, citing current projections.

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The Union Budget projected a nominal GDP of around $3.63 trillion for the current fiscal year, making a $4 trillion economy seem improbable.

"India on a rolling basis won’t hit $4 trillion till late 2024-early 2025," Barclays India chief economist Rahul Bajoria, said in a post on X.

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Meanwhile, Deepak Shenoy of Capitalmind points out that at best we are possibly at $3.45 trillion now.

“A $4 trillion economy does not seem likely in the current situation. It would translate into nominal GDP of about Rs 330 lakh crore, which may be possible with a 10% growth in 2024-25,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

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While, there was no official confirmation or denial of this, the post with the screengrab went viral and was shared by many including BJP leaders.

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India’s official GDP estimates are released by the National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation per a scheduled calendar.

Official data on GDP estimates for the second quarter of the financial year will be released at the end of this month.

RBI's estimate on India's GDP

According to recent RBI estimates, the Indian economy is expected to grow 6.5 per cent this financial year, lower than 7.2 per cent recorded in 2022-23. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 6.3 per cent every year till 2028.