GDP growth for Q4FY24 might moderate; weakest growth in the fiscal year: Report

India's economy likely grew at its slowest pace in FY24 in the Jan-March quarter, showed a Reuters poll of economists. As per the report, this slowdown was due to weak demand and economists who participated in the polls said that the possibility of growth significantly surpassing their forecasts was low.

Meanwhile, as per PTI, the GDP for the quarter is anticipated to have grown between 6.1% and 6.7%, a decline from the over 8% growth rate observed in the previous three quarters. Similarly, Reuters poll has also predicted that India's economy likely slowed to an annual 6.7% in January-March. The National Statistical Office estimates the GDP growth to be 5.9% in the January-March quarter.

For the overall fiscal year, economists predict the growth to be in the range of 7.6% to 7.8%. However, government's chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said earlier this month that there is a high possibility of India’s economic growth touching 8% in FY24

GDP Estimate

As per Reuters, growth likely slowed due to moderation in both the manufacturing and services sectors. They also cited a muted contribution from agriculture. PTI quoted Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank and said that the trade and hotel industries performed well in the fourth quarter.

“Manufacturing activities have been strong, and construction-related and investment segments should be doing better, but the agriculture sector might lag and even see contraction during the quarter. We are expecting a 6.1% GDP growth for the fourth quarter, which should result in an annual GDP growth close to 7.6%,” Bhardwaj stated.

About the Gross Value Added, Reuters poll anticipates a slow down to 6.2% while Upasna Bhardwaj told PTI that it might go down to 5.7%.

The Indian economy reported growth rates of 8.2% in the June quarter, 8.1% in the September quarter, and 8.4% in the December quarter of 2023-24. The government is set to release the GDP figures for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year on May 31.

Also Watch: ICRA forecasts India’s GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in Q4 FY2024