A 'cannibal' coronal mass ejection (CME), the result of several solar storms and an unexpected 'dark eruption', is currently moving towards Earth.
Upon impact, expected on Tuesday, July 18, it could instigate a considerable geomagnetic storm on our planet.
Understanding Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Flares
CMEs are immense, rapid clouds of magnetized plasma and solar radiation occasionally flung into space during solar flares.
These powerful sun-surface explosions occur when plasma loops near sunspots snap, akin to an overstretched rubber band breaking.
When these CMEs collide with Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms - disruptions in our planet's magnetic field - leading to temporary radio blackouts and vibrant auroras, visible further away from Earth's magnetic poles than usual.
The Birth of a Cannibal CME
A cannibal CME takes shape when a secondary, quicker CME follows an initial one. As the second CME overtakes the first, it swallows it, forming a singular, gigantic plasma wave.
On July 14, our sun expelled a CME alongside a dark eruption - a solar flare containing unusually cool plasma that looks like a dark wave on the sun's otherwise blazing surface - from sunspot AR3370, according to reports from Spaceweather.com.
A larger sunspot, AR3363, released a second, faster CME on July 15.
A Cannibal CME Heading Towards Earth
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center's simulation indicates that the second storm will intersect the first CME, creating a cannibalistic cloud, with a high likelihood of it reaching Earth on July 18.
Both originating from C-class solar flares, these CMEs individually would be too feeble to trigger significant geomagnetic storms.
However, their collective size and velocity could potentially provoke a G1 or G2 level disturbance, the two highest categories for a geomagnetic storm.
Rarity and Impact of Cannibal CMEs
Cannibal CMEs are infrequent as they require successive CMEs to align perfectly and travel at certain speeds. Despite this, there have been multiple occurrences in recent years.
In November 2021, Earth experienced one of the first major geomagnetic storms of the current solar cycle due to a cannibal CME. Two more CMEs struck our planet in 2022, in March and August, but both only triggered minor G3-class storms.
Cannibal CMEs are more likely to occur during the solar maximum, a tumultuous peak in the sun's approximately 11-year solar cycle, where sunspot and solar flare numbers dramatically increase due to an unstable sun's magnetic field.
Scientists initially estimated the next solar maximum to occur in 2025, with less intensity than previous cycles. However, recent reports suggest that the sun's explosive peak could arrive earlier and with more force than expected.
The emergence of unusual solar phenomena like cannibal CMEs signals that the solar maximum is on the horizon.
Geomagnetic Storms and Their Effects
So far this year, Earth has already been hit by five G1 or G2 geomagnetic storms, including the most powerful storm in over six years.
These storms have caused the thermosphere - Earth's second-highest atmospheric layer - to reach its highest temperature in over 20 years. The number of sunspots is also rising as we near the solar maximum, hitting its highest total in nearly 21 years this June.
These solar developments underscore the dynamic nature of our solar system and the potential impact of solar phenomena, like the cannibal CME, on Earth.
Scientists from NASA, NOAA, and other organizations continue to monitor and study these events to better understand and predict their effects.
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