GDP for Q3 FY24 forecast to be 6.8%: SBI Ecowrap

The latest SBI Ecowrap report stated that the Gross Domestic Product for the for the October to December quarter of financial year 2023-24 is projected to be 6.8%. This is slightly higher than RBI's expectation of 6.5% growth for the third quarter.

GDP Expectation

Factoring in the slight decline in economic activity in the third quarter, the report mentioned that the GDP should grow in the range of 6.7% to 6.9%. Driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban-rural landscape, Corporate Indian continued its robust performance.

As per the report, Corporate results from 4,000 listed entities for Q3 FY24 show robust growth of more than 30% in both EBIDTA and PAW, while top line grew by around 7% compared to the same period previous year.

As per first advance estimates, the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 declined 4.6% to 148.5 MMT. The overall acreage increased slightly as indicated by the sowing season of rabi crops. Meanwhile, the sown area under cereals saw a decline of 6.5% from the previous year.

“While agriculture may see some moderation if the rabi output does not offset the kharif shortfall value added in agriculture will decline. The inland fish production has shown a rapid growth from 2014-15 to 2022-23 and reached 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23,” the report stated

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On global economy, the report mentioned that the likelihood of the economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2023 has brightened in recent months with risks broadly balanced.

As per the report, a significant slowdown in China, attributed to deflationary fears, primarily due to a property bubble and local government debt, which has slowed down bank lending despite recent rate cuts aimed at boosting demand has intensified the global economic complexity. China's struggle pose a challenge to the industrial and commodity demands, especially as the world is gradually recovering from the recent disruptions.

The report however mentioned that India is witnessing a boost in consumer confidence, largely driven by a positive outlook on the overall economic situation and employment conditions in contrast to the global economic gloom.