Name: Budget 2024: Market Expert Ambareesh Baliga On Why Stock Market Slipped | Avni Raja
Uploaded: 2024-07-25T11:04:22.000+05:30
Duration: T14M05S
Channel: Editorji News Desk
Description: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget of 2024 -25 today. Market expert Ambareesh Baliga explains why stock market slipped in conversation with Avni Raja.

The Reserve Bank of India has paused its rate-cut cycle and retained the repo rate at 5.25% in its latest policy review, citing geopolitical risks, low inflation, and currency pressures.

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, maintains neutral stance amid global policy divergence

The Reserve Bank of India has paused its rate-cut cycle and retained the repo rate at 5.25% in its latest policy review, citing geopolitical risks, low inflation, and currency pressures.

After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.&nbsp;
This is the first monetary policy review after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the Budget for financial year 2026-27.
Announcing the sixth and final bi-monthly monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to retain short-term lending rate or repo rate at 5.25 per cent with a neutral stance.
The rate cut pause comes on the back of the CPI-based headline retail inflation ruling below the 2 per cent lower band mandated by the government for the last four months. The central bank has been tasked by the government to ensure that consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 125 basis points. In its previous policy review in December, it had trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent.
Based on the recommendation of the MPC, the RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps each in February, 2025 and April, and 50 basis points in June amidst easing retail inflation. However, the central bank halted its rate cut in August.
In the last MPC meeting, the RBI again went for reduction in repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent. India's retail inflation dropped to a historic low of 0.25 per cent in October 2025, marking the lowest level since the CPI series was introduced.
Besides, the Indian economy has clocked better-than-expected GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter. As per the government estimate, India's economy is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent during the ongoing financial year.
However, the rupee declined to historic low and crossed 92 against a dollar last week making imports costlier, raising fears of rise in inflation. Rupee has depreciated by about 6 per cent in calendar year 2025.

The Indian rupee surged 122 paise to 90.27 against the US dollar after the India-US trade deal boosted market sentiment, supported by strong equities and expectations of foreign inflows.

Rupee jumps 122 paise to close at 90.27 against US dollar on India-US trade deal

The Indian rupee surged 122 paise to 90.27 against the US dollar after the India-US trade deal boosted market sentiment, supported by strong equities and expectations of foreign inflows.

The Indian rupee emerged as the best-performing Asian currency on Tuesday, registering a gain of 122 paise or 1.33 per cent in a single trading session to settle at 90.27 (provisional) against the US dollar, after India and the US agreed to a trade deal.
Forex traders said the Indian rupee rose to the highest levels in two and a half weeks and rallied by around 1.5 pc on the trade deal between India and the US.
Domestic indices also surged by around 2.75 per cent, boosting domestic market sentiments. Further, weakness in crude oil prices and expected foreign inflows also favoured investor sentiment.
India and the US agreed on a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent, lower than that for countries like China, Bangladesh and Vietnam.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 90.30 against the US dollar, then gained some ground to touch an intraday high of 90.05 and a low of 90.52 against the greenback.
At the end of the trading session on Tuesday, the rupee was quoted at 90.27 (provisional) against the greenback, registering a gain of 122 paise from its previous close.
The rupee gained 44 paise to close at 91.49 against the US dollar on Monday, a day after the Union Budget 2026-27 was presented.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said the India-US trade deal is a "big decision" that will benefit everyone in the country, and asserted that his government always works in favour of the nation.
Forex traders said the India-US trade deal will reopen the door for FII participation, and if capital flows recover in CY26, it would ease some pressure on the rupee.
"With the 'reciprocal' tariffs on India's exports to the US now lowered, we estimate the current account deficit to narrow by around 0.25 per cent of GDP in CY26 to 0.8 per cent of GDP. In addition, if capital flows recover in CY26 on the conclusion of the India-US trade deal, which would ease some pressure on the INR, and result in downside risk to our current USD/INR 12-month forecast of 94," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
However, things may not be completely smooth sailing for the INR, some experts believe.
"There could be hiccups along the way with this trade agreement &ndash; for example, it may not be easy for India to divert its Russian oil purchases quickly.
"The RBI's FX policy could also complicate things. The RBI has been intervening in a rather unpredictable way over the past few months to prevent one-sided speculative positioning &ndash; both short and long &ndash; in the INR," HSBC said in a research note, adding, "Our end-2026 forecast for USD-INR is 90".
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent lower at 97.57.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.14 per cent at USD 66.18 per barrel in futures trade.
On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex jumped 2,072.67 points to settle at 83,739.13, while the Nifty surged 639.15 points to 25,727.55.
Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,832.46 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.

Indian stock markets soared after the India-US trade deal reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, boosting export-oriented sectors and investor sentiment.

Stock markets cheer India-US trade deal: Sensex, Nifty surge 2.5 pc

Indian stock markets soared after the India-US trade deal reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, boosting export-oriented sectors and investor sentiment.

Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended 2.5 per cent higher on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent.
After starting the trade on a buoyant note, the 30-share BSE Sensex further jumped 4,205.27 points or 5.14 per cent to hit the day's high of 85,871.73. It later ended at 83,739.13, up 2,072.67 points or 2.54 per cent.
The 50-share NSE Nifty zoomed 639.15 points or 2.55 per cent to settle at 25,727.55. During the day, it surged 1,252.8 points or 4.99 per cent to 26,341.20.
India and the US have agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent from the current 25 per cent, US President Donald Trump said on Monday after a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Adani Ports surged 9.12 per cent. The other prominent winners were Bajaj Finance, InterGlobe Aviation, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finserv, and Reliance Industries. Tech Mahindra and Bharat Electronics were the only laggards.
The trade deal also propelled a sharp rally in textile, leather, gems and jewellery, seafood exports, and specialty chemicals stocks.
"Indian equities experienced a significant rally today, driven by the long-anticipated India&ndash;US trade deal and a strengthening rupee, which boosted expectations of renewed FII inflows. The reduction of US tariffs on Indian goods from 50 per cent to 18 per cent enhances India's competitive position among emerging markets and bolsters the outlook for export-oriented sectors with high US exposure, such as textiles, aquaculture, gems, and pharmaceuticals, which were supported in the 2026 Union Budget," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said.
In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi rebounded sharply and jumped nearly 7 per cent. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index also ended higher. European markets were trading in positive territory. US markets ended higher on Monday.
Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,832.46 crore on Monday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth Rs 2,446.33 crore, according to exchange data.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 0.65 per cent to USD 65.87 per barrel.
On Monday, the Sensex jumped 943.52 points or 1.17 per cent to settle at 81,666.46. The Nifty climbed 262.95 points or 1.06 per cent to end at 25,088.40.

The government informed Rajya Sabha that UPI transactions touched a record Rs 230 lakh crore till December 2025-26 and the system is now operational in eight countries, highlighting India’s leadership in global retail digital payments.

UPI transactions hit record high of Rs 230 lakh crore in 2025-26 till Dec: Govt

The government informed Rajya Sabha that UPI transactions touched a record Rs 230 lakh crore till December 2025-26 and the system is now operational in eight countries, highlighting India&rsquo;s leadership in global retail digital payments.

The government on Tuesday informed the Rajya Sabha that transactions through the popular Unified Payments Interface (UPI) touched a record value of Rs 230 lakh crore in the current financial year till December.
Replying to supplementaries during question hour, the Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said the value of transactions through UPI was expanding at a fast pace.&nbsp;
"As far as domestic transactions are concerned, transactions worth a total value of Rs 230 lakh crore have been made till December in the year 2025-26. This is against total transaction value of Rs 139 lakh crore in the year 2022-23," the minister informed the House.
The minister also informed the House that the UPI was now expanding outside India and is being used in eight countries after currency conversion while following their domestic laws.
In a written reply to the question in Parliament, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "Unified Payment Interface (UPI) is currently working in eight countries i.e. Bhutan, France, Mauritius, Nepal, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and UAE."
"The government, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and NPCI International Payments Ltd (NIPL) have been taking up various steps for international expansion of Unified Payment Interface (UPI). These inter-alia, include operationalisation of UPI linkages with comparable fast payment systems of partner countries to facilitate cross-border person-to-person (P2P) remittance flows, as well as the establishment of travel-based corridors to enable cross-border person-to-merchant (P2M) payments," the finance minister said in her written reply.
She said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on 'Growing Retail Digital Payments (The Value of Interoperability)' dated June 2025 has recognised UPI as the world's largest retail fast-payment system by transaction volume.
"Further, as per ACI Worldwide report 2024, UPI accounts for around 49 per cent of transaction volume of the global real-time retail payments," the minister said.

US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18%, boosting exports and benefiting labour-intensive sectors.

Explained: India-US trade deal, tariffs and trade benefits

US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18%, boosting exports and benefiting labour-intensive sectors.

US President Donald Trump has said that India and the US have agreed on a trade deal under which Washington will bring down reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent from the current 25 per cent.
The announcement is important as the US has imposed a steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods entering American markets from August 27, 2025.
Here is a list of key pointers to explain the announcement. 
<h3>Tariff definition:</h3>
These are customs or import duties which a country imposes on goods bought from other nations. An importer has to pay this duty to the government. Normally, companies pass on these taxes to end users or consumers. Import duty makes goods expensive in the importing country.
Besides, a few other factors also play a role in this. For example, duty on India's competitor nations such as Bangladesh (20 pc), Vietnam (20 pc) and Thailand (19 pc); and quality and standards of items.
<h3> USA's tariffs on India:</h3>
In August 2025, the US announced to impose a 25 per cent tariff plus another 25 per cent punitive duty for buying Russia's crude oil and military equipment. These duties are imposed over and above the existing tariffs that the Indian goods are facing in the US.
The US has reduced the duty to 18 per cent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that he was delighted that "made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18 per cent".
<h3> Why US is imposing tariffs:</h3>
The US has alleged that it faces a significant trade deficit with India, blaming New Delhi for imposing high tariffs on American goods, which it says restricts US exports to the Indian market. 
<h3>Trump's announcement:</h3>
"It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India...We spoke about many things, including Trade...He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.
This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week!
Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%."
"They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.
The Prime Minister also committed to "BUY AMERICAN," at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of US Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products," Trump has said in a social media post.
<h3> Details of the deal:</h3>
No details are available so far. An executive order from the US may provide clarity on the tariff issues, the trade deal document is expected to outline the sectors covered under the agreement. Both are awaited.
<h3> Gains for India:</h3>
Labour-intensive sectors such as garments, leather and non-leather footwear, gems and jewellery, carpets and handicrafts may get a boost as high tariffs were hurting exports of these goods to the US.
<h3> Bilateral trade:</h3>
During 2021-25, the US was India's largest trading partner in goods. The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India's total exports, 6.22 per cent in imports, and 10.73 per cent in bilateral trade.
In 2024-25, the bilateral trade touched USD 186 billion (USD 86.5 billion exports and USD 45.3 billion imports).
With America, India had a trade surplus (the difference between imports and exports) of USD 41 billion in 2024-25. It was USD 35.32 billion in 2023-24 and USD 27.7 billion in 2022-23.
In services, India exported an estimated USD 28.7 billion and imported USD 25.5 billion, adding a USD 3.2 billion surplus. Altogether, India ran a total trade surplus of about USD 44.4 billion with the US.
<h3> Major products traded between the two:</h3>
In 2024, India's main exports to the US included drug formulations and biologicals (USD 8.1 billion), telecom instruments (USD 6.5 billion), precious and semi-precious stones (USD 5.3 billion), petroleum products (USD 4.1 billion), vehicle and auto components (USD 2.8 billion), gold and other precious metal jewellery (USD 3.2 billion), ready-made garments of cotton, including accessories (USD 2.8 billion), and products of iron and steel (USD 2.7 billion).
Imports included crude oil (USD 4.5 billion), petroleum products (USD 3.6 billion), coal, coke (USD 3.4 billion), cut and polished diamonds (USD 2.6 billion), electric machinery (USD 1.4 billion), aircraft, spacecraft and parts (USD 1.3 billion), and gold (USD 1.3 billion).
<h3> Services trade:</h3>
As per estimates, USA's services imports from India amounted to USD 40.6 billion in calendar year 2024, with computer/information services imports at USD 16.7 billion and business management/consulting at USD 7.5 billion.
<h3> High tariffs in US:</h3>
As per reports, the US imposes high duties on items like dairy products (188 per cent), Fruits and vegetables (132 per cent), Coffee, tea, cocoa and spices (53 per cent), Cereals and food preparations (193 per cent), Oilseeds, fats and oils (164 per cent), beverages and tobacco (150 per cent), Minerals and metals (187 per cent), and Chemicals (56 per cent).
<h3> Comments of experts on India-US trade deal:</h3>
EPC (Apparel Export Promotion Council) Chairman A Sakthivel: This development is expected to give a boost to apparel exports, attract fresh investments across the value chain, and reinforce India&rsquo;s position as a reliable global sourcing hub.
Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President SC Ralhan: It is expected to lead to an immediate and substantial release of orders that were earlier put on hold, particularly in labour-intensive sectors such as apparel, textiles, leather and footwear.

Industry leaders hail the India-US trade deal, which cuts reciprocal tariffs to 18%, as a key boost for exports, investment, and India’s ambition to become a global manufacturing and innovation hub.

Trade deal with US adds momentum to India's growth ambition: Industry leaders

Industry leaders hail the India-US trade deal, which cuts reciprocal tariffs to 18%, as a key boost for exports, investment, and India&rsquo;s ambition to become a global manufacturing and innovation hub.

The India-US trade deal adds meaningful momentum to India's growth ambitions and supports the country's ambition to be a globally competitive manufacturing and innovation hub, industry leaders said on Tuesday.
Reacting to the trade agreement between the two countries, Mahindra Group CEO &amp; Managing Director Anish Shah welcomed the development, terming it as "a significant step forward in strengthening bilateral trade and investment ties."
"With the Indian economy on a strong growth trajectory, this deal adds meaningful momentum to India's growth ambitions," he noted. Shah further said, "The immediate reduction in reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports to 18 per cent, along with the commitment to progressively lower tariff and non-tariff barriers, will boost growth momentum and improve the predictability businesses need to invest with confidence."
Expressing similar views, Aditya Birla Group Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla said the reduced tariffs will help strengthen the strategic and economic ties between the two great countries and provide additional opportunities for investment and collaboration.
Stating that the Aditya Birla Group is the largest Indian investor in the US, he said, "We see this agreement help shape more resilient supply chains, unlock manufacturing opportunities and drive long-term economic competitiveness in both the US and India."
Birla said the group is committed to expanding its presence and investments in the US, "where we see substantial opportunities for innovation, growth and enduring partnerships."
TVS Motor Company Chairman Sudarshan Venu also said the reduction in the US reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent is a positive step that improves export competitiveness and reinforces confidence in long-term bilateral economic ties, furthering Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of Viksit Bharat 2047.
"In a challenging global environment, predictability and openness in trade help the Indian industry scale, innovate and create jobs. We look forward to a stronger India-US partnership that accelerates growth, expands market access, and supports India's ambition to be a globally competitive manufacturing and innovation hub," he added.
Reacting to the tariff reductions, Mahindra Group Chairman Anand Mahindra, in a crisp post on X, wrote, "More evidence of the benefits of 'Making haste slowly.' When the noise subsides, two natural partners will come together."
Similarly, RPG Enterprises Chairman Harsh Goenka in a post on X said, "First the Mother of all deals with EU, now the Father of all deals with US - great achievement by PM Modi government! Patience pays.#TradeDeal."
SpiceJet Chairman and Managing Director, Ajay Singh, said, "Coming on the back of recent trade agreements with the EU and the UK, this deal reinforces India's growing confidence and credibility on the global stage and lays the foundation for sustained growth and stronger international partnerships."
"The finalisation of the India-US trade deal is a watershed moment for our nation and a major boost for the &lsquo;Made in India' brand," he added.

The rupee strengthened by 119 paise to 90.30 against the US dollar in early trade after the US reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50 per cent to 18 per cent.

Rupee jumps 119 paise to 90.30 against the US dollar on India-US trade deal

The rupee strengthened by 119 paise to 90.30 against the US dollar in early trade after the US reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50 per cent to 18 per cent.

The rupee appreciated 119 paise to 90.30 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, after US tariffs on India were cut from 50 per cent to 18 per cent.
Forex traders said the 18 per cent tariff changes the story, improving India&rsquo;s relative position and reopening the door for FII participation.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 90.30 against the US dollar, registering a gain of 119 paise over its previous close of 91.49.
"The good news overnight was the US-India trade deal which was announced after a delay of almost 9 months by President Donald Trump and endorsed by PM Narendra Modi in which the trade tariffs were reduced to 18 per cent, a tad lower than what it is for Bangladesh and Pakistan our neighbours giving our exporters a relative advantage," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
Bhansali further noted that FIIs may finally buy Indian equities after being sellers for such a long time.
"We need to wait and see the RBI stance today and in the coming days as it needs to buy the short dollar position," he added.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.20 per cent lower at 97.43.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.41 per cent at USD 66.03 per barrel in futures trade.
On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex was trading 2,138.08 points or 2.62 per cent higher at 83,804.54, while the Nifty was up 607 points or 2.42 per cent at 25,695.40.
Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,832.46 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.

India and the United States agreed on a trade deal reducing reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, a development welcomed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

President Trump announces US-India trade deal, lowers tariffs from 25 pc to 18 pc

India and the United States agreed on a trade deal reducing reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, a development welcomed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent from current 25 per cent, US President Donald Trump said on Monday after a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The prime minister said he was delighted that "Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18 per cent".
"Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18 per cent. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement," Modi said.
The prime minister said when two large economies and the world's largest democracies work together, it benefits the people and "unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation".
"President Trump's leadership is vital for global peace, stability, and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace," he said on 'X'.
Modi noted that he looked forward to working closely with Trump to take the bilateral partnership to unprecedented heights, without mentioning many of the other issues that figured in Trump's post on social media.
Trump said India will move forward to reduce "tariffs and non tariff barriers" against the US to zero, adding New Delhi would buy American goods, including energy, worth more than USD 500 billion.
"Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a trade deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent," the US president said on social media.
India will "likewise move forward to reduce their tariffs and non tariff barriers against the United States, to zero", he said.
Trump said Modi also committed to buy American goods at much higher level, in addition to over USD 500 billion dollars of US energy, technology, agricultural, coal, and many other products.
"Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that get things done something that cannot be said for most," he said.
In his remarks, Modi said, "When two large economies and the world's largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation."
"I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented heights," he added.
Trump said Modi and he also discussed ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.
"He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela," the US president said.
"This will help end the war in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week," Trump said.
Trump and Modi last spoke on phone in October 2025.
The two leaders had agreed at a meeting in February last year to finalise the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement by the autumn.
Though the two sides held several rounds of negotiations, forward movement on the trade deal stalled after Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, including the 25 per cent punitive tariffs for India's procurement of Russian crude oil.
The Modi-Trump phone talks came on a day External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar travelled to Washington DC.
India has now lower tariff compared to competing export economies, officials said.
They cited 19 per cent American tariffs on Indonesia, 20 per cent on Vietnam, 20 per cent on Bangladesh and 34 per cent on China.
Official sources last week said India and the US have made "very significant" progress in the negotiations for the trade deal.

Sensex and Nifty jumped sharply in early trade after India and the US agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent, boosting market sentiment.

Stock markets cheer India-US trade deal: Sensex jumps over 5 pc; Nifty nears all-time high

Sensex and Nifty jumped sharply in early trade after India and the US agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent, boosting market sentiment.

Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged in early trading session on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent from current 25 per cent.
The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 3,656.74 points to 85,323.20 in opening trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty surged 1,219.65 points to 26,308.05.
Later, both the benchmark indices further extended their winning momentum. The BSE benchmark zoomed 4,205.27 points or 5.14 per cent to 85,871.73. The Nifty jumped 1,252.8 points or 4.99 per cent to 26,341.20.
India and the US have agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent from current 25 per cent, US President Donald Trump said on Monday after a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Bajaj Finserv, InterGlobe Aviation and Reliance Industries were trading sharply higher in the range of 7.2-3.7 per cent. ITC emerged as the only laggard from the blue-chip pack.
"The dramatic announcement of the long-awaited US-India trade deal and the US decision to cut tariffs on India from 50 per cent to 18 per cent is a game changer for the Indian economy and stock markets.
"The combination of the US-India trade deal, the EU-India trade deal and the growth-oriented Budget will boost the market sentiments and the animal spirits in the economy. The stock market, anticipating and discounting these developments will boom," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said.
In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi rebounded and jumped 5 per cent. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index were also trading higher.
US markets ended higher on Monday.
Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,832.46 crore on Monday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth Rs 2,446.33 crore, according to exchange data.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dipped 0.51 per cent to USD 65.96 per barrel.
On Monday, the Sensex jumped 943.52 points or 1.17 per cent to settle at 81,666.46. The Nifty climbed 262.95 points or 1.06 per cent to end at 25,088.40.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said sustaining 7–8% economic growth is the government’s top priority to boost jobs, productivity, women’s participation, and long-term development.

Sustaining 7–8% growth top priority to create jobs: FM Nirmala Sitharaman

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said sustaining 7&ndash;8% economic growth is the government&rsquo;s top priority to boost jobs, productivity, women&rsquo;s participation, and long-term development.

Sustaining a 7-8 per cent economic growth is the government's top priority, as it will benefit all citizens and create more jobs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said.
In an interaction with college students from different regions of the country on Sunday, after the presentation of the Union Budget 2026-27, Sitharaman said if economic growth is good, its fruits will reach all citizens.
"And that is why growth is the primary priority. Sustain it at that level, the world's-fastest growing economy, we need to be at that level of 7 per cent, 8 per cent growth. So everything that I do will have to be for sustaining that growth," the minister said.
She said economic growth create jobs, bring more people into workforce and more productivity.
Sitharaman further said employers are increasingly recognising the value women bring to the workforce due to their efficiency and precision. This is reflected in the rising number of women in semi-skilled roles.
However, there remains concern about the limited representation of women in boardrooms, she said, adding that more women need to rise to leadership positions to influence decision-making and serve as role models for others. While progress has been made, more needs to be done, she said.
The minister informed the students that since the last budget, the government has consistently ensured policies, funding and support for the Orange Economy (Animation, Visual Effects, Gaming, Comics sector).
"Today, even television media depends on such creative inputs. It is a bright sector with many avenues. Creativity is challenged every day, and if you have the aptitude, this is definitely an area worth pursuing," she said.
The minister also informed the students about the steps involved in budget preparations.
She said the budget preparation begins in late October or November with consultations involving industry groups, businesses, economists, trade unions, and interest groups, alongside public inputs via social media.
The suggestions are shortlisted, discussed with concerned ministries and states, and refined for feasibility and implementation.
After multiple reviews and drafting rounds, the budget speech is finalised, Sitharaman said.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget of 2024 -25 today. Market expert Ambareesh Baliga explains why stock market slipped in conversation with Avni Raja.

Budget 2024: Market Expert Ambareesh Baliga On Why Stock Market Slipped | Avni Raja

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget of 2024 -25 today. Market expert Ambareesh Baliga explains why stock market slipped in conversation with Avni Raja.

India’s economy is projected to expand करीब 8.1 per cent in the September–December quarter under the revised GDP series with 2022-23 as the new base year, according to a State Bank of India report.

India's GDP expected to register over 8 pc growth in Sep-Dec: Report

India&rsquo;s economy is projected to expand करीब 8.1 per cent in the September&ndash;December quarter under the revised GDP series with 2022-23 as the new base year, according to a State Bank of India report.

The Indian economy is expected to record a growth rate closer to 8.1 per cent in the September-December quarter under the revised series with the new base year of 2022-23, a report said on Tuesday.
The country witnessed a growth rate of 8 per cent in the first half of the ongoing financial year ending in March 2026.
According to the first advance estimate of the National Statistics Office (NSO) last month, real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.4 per cent in FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 6.5 per cent in the previous financial year.
The second advance estimates of GDP for FY26, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27.
So, all the previous quarterly numbers of the first quarter and the second quarter are expected to change with the change in base year to 2022-23.
"High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in 3QFY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season," a report from State Bank of India's Economic Research Department said.
"Overall, we expect Q3FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 8.1 per cent. Given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision," it said.
It further said Scheduled Commercial Banks&rsquo; (SCBs) deposit growth remains muted compared to credit growth.
As per the latest RBI data, aggregate deposits grew by 12.5 per cent, while credit grew by 14.6 per cent.
With the rise in CD ratio, the gap between deposits and credit growth has increased, but such gaps are nothing new to the banking system, it said.

The government announced seven new measures, including credit support for e-commerce exporters and logistics assistance, under a ₹25,060 crore export promotion mission aimed at boosting outbound shipments and supporting MSMEs.

Govt announces seven measures to help boost exports

The government announced seven new measures, including credit support for e-commerce exporters and logistics assistance, under a ₹25,060 crore export promotion mission aimed at boosting outbound shipments and supporting MSMEs.

The government on Friday announced seven measures, including credit assistance for e-commerce exporters and support for alternative trade instruments, with an aim to promote the country's outbound shipments.&nbsp;
These measures are part of the Rs 25,060 crore export promotion mission. Out of 10 components of the mission, three have already been rolled out in January.
To support exporters using digital channels, the commerce ministry announced credit facilities with interest subvention and partial credit guarantees. The Direct E-Commerce Credit Facility will provide support up to Rs 50 lakh with 90 per cent guarantee coverage.&nbsp;
The Overseas Inventory Credit Facility will extend support up to Rs 5 crore with 75 per cent guarantee coverage, and an interest subvention of 2.75 per cent will be available, subject to an annual ceiling of Rs 15 lakh per applicant, the commerce ministry said.
To promote export factoring as an affordable working capital solution for MSMEs, an interest subvention of 2.75 per cent will be provided on the factoring cost for eligible transactions undertaken through RBI/IFSCA-recognised entities. Assistance is capped at Rs 50 lakh per MSME annually and will be processed through a digital claim mechanism to ensure transparency and timely disbursal.
To support emerging export opportunities, the ministry said this intervention enables exporters to access new or high-risk markets through shared-risk and credit enhancement instruments such as Letters of Credit confirmation and negotiation.
For Trade Regulations, Accreditation and Compliance Enablement (TRACE), support will be extended to exporters in meeting international testing, inspections, certifications and other conformity requirements. Under this, partial reimbursement of 60 per cent under the Positive List and 75 per cent under the Priority Positive List will be provided for eligible testing, inspection and certification expenses, subject to an annual ceiling of Rs 25 lakh per IEC (import export code).
Facilitating Logistics, Overseas Warehousing and Fulfilment (FLOW) will enable exporters to access overseas warehousing and fulfillment infrastructure, including E-Commerce Export Hubs integrated with global distribution networks, it said. Under this, an assistance of up to 30 per cent of the approved project cost will be provided for a maximum of three years, subject to prescribed ceilings and MSME participation norms.
For exporters from northeastern and hilly regions, Logistics Interventions for Freight and Transport (LIFT) was announced. LIFT mitigates geographical disadvantages faced by exporters in remote, hilly, northeastern and landlocked districts. Under this, there will be partial reimbursement of up to 30 per cent of the eligible freight expenditure, subject to a ceiling of Rs 20 lakh per IEC per financial year.
Financial assistance will also be extended for an integrated Support for Trade Intelligence and Facilitation (INSIGHT). It is generally limited to 50 per cent of project cost, with up to 100 per cent support for proposals from central and state Government institutions and Indian Missions abroad, subject to notified ceilings.
Through these coordinated financial and ecosystem interventions, the government aims to reduce the cost of capital, diversify trade finance instruments, enhance compliance readiness, address logistics constraints and strengthen overseas market integration for MSMEs.
Launching these measures, Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal said they are aimed at empowering Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) for global markets. He said India's expanding network of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) has significantly enhanced market access for Indian exporters.
He noted that nearly 70 per cent of global GDP and two-thirds of global trade are now accessible to India through nine concluded FTAs, including the first tranche of the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the United States. These agreements provide preferential access across sectors in 38 developed and emerging economies.
Emphasising that the benefits of global trade must reach every MSME, startup and entrepreneur, Goyal said the mission is aimed at promoting new products, services and exporters, while enabling Indian businesses to access new markets. He said India has recorded double-digit growth in merchandise exports in the first half of February.
The mission seeks to simplify processes for MSMEs, strengthen access to credit, enhance quality standards, support compliance with international regulations and expand logistics and warehousing infrastructure globally.
Speaking at the occasion, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said these interventions will help access new markets, and promote exports of new products. He asked the export promotion councils to prepare a communication package to take advantage of the free trade pacts finalised by India.
During April-January 2025-26 fiscal, the country's exports rose by 2.22 per cent to USD 366.63 billion. Imports grew 7.21 per cent to USD 649.86 billion, leaving a trade deficit of USD 283.23 billion during the nine-month period of 2025-26.

RBI has held the repo rate steady at 5.25% citing benign inflation, stable growth, and easing external pressures after trade deals.

RBI keeps interest rates on hold after US trade deal boosts outlook

RBI has held the repo rate steady at 5.25% citing benign inflation, stable growth, and easing external pressures after trade deals.

The Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday, as expected, as inflation remained at manageable levels and growth concerns eased following increased government spending in the Budget and reduced tariff pressures after a trade deal with the United States.
The central bank's six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep the repurchase or repo rate at 5.25 per cent.
RBI retained its neutral policy stance, signalling that it is likely to remain on hold for now.
US President Donald Trump earlier this week announced a cut in tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, easing a key pressure point on India's economy and markets.
Announcing the decisions of the MPC, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said external headwinds have intensified, but the successful completion of the trade deal with the United States bodes well for the economy.
The RBI has cut rates by a total of 125 basis points since February 2025, marking its most aggressive easing cycle since 2019.
It reduced rates by 25 basis points at its previous meeting in December.
While inflation remains benign, economic activity remains resilient.
"Amidst heightened geo-political tensions and elevated uncertainty, the Indian economy is in a good spot with strong growth and low inflation. Inflation remains below the tolerance band and its outlook continues to be benign," he said.
"With the signing of a landmark trade deal with the European Union and the US trade agreement in sight, growth momentum is likely to be sustained for a longer period."
Inflation is expected to average close to 2 per cent in the current financial year, below the central bank's target of 4 per cent.
GDP growth for the current fiscal year ending March 31 is forecast at 7.4 per cent.
The RBI raised real GDP growth projections for the first two quarters of the next fiscal to 6.9 per cent (April-June) and 7 per cent (July-September) but deferred full-year projection to April as the new GDP series will be released later this month.
Announcing additional measures, Malhotra said RBI will issue three draft guidelines relating to mis-selling, recovery of loans and engagement of recovery agents, and on limiting liability of customers in un-authorised electronic banking transactions.
"It is also proposed to introduce a framework to compensate customers up to an amount of Rs 25,000 for loss incurred in small-value fraudulent transactions," he said.
It will also publish a discussion paper on possible measures to enhance the safety of digital payments.
Such measures may include lagged credits and additional authentication for specific classes of users like senior citizens.
He also proposed doubling the limit for collateral-free loans to MSMEs Rs 20 lakh and allowing banks to lend to REITs to promote financing to the real estate sector.
Also, NBFCs having no public funds and customer interface, with asset size not exceeding Rs 1,000 crore, are proposed to be exempted from the requirement of registration.
The requirement for certain NBFCs to obtain prior approval to open more than 1,000 branches is also to be dispensed with.
For financial markets, Malhotra said RBI proposes to remove the limit of Rs 2.5 lakh crore for investments under the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR).
Investment through the VRR in each category of securities will be subject to the investment ceiling for the respective category under the General Route.
"The Indian economy continues to register high growth despite a challenging external environment clouded by geo-political uncertainties. Benign inflation provides the leeway to remain growth-supportive while preserving financial stability. We remain committed to meet the productive requirements of the economy and sustain the growth momentum," he added.
Commenting on the MPC decisions, Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank said, "The MPC delivered completely in line with expectations across rates and stance. The inflation outlook in H1,FY27 has been revised up marginally."
Inflation projection for H1,FY27 has been revised slightly higher to 4.1 per cent from 3.95 per cent but inflation outlook has remained benign.
"While uncertainty remains on the growth-inflation figures as we await the new series, the uptick in commodity prices and weaker currency may pose upside risks to inflation. We therefore see limited room for additional easing on the repo rate front, with RBIs focus expected to be on ensuring stability on the liquidity front in the year ahead," Bhardwaj said.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced a new framework to compensate customers for small-value digital fraud, along with draft rules on mis-selling and loan recovery.

RBI to issue draft guidelines for protecting customers from mis-selling, among others

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced a new framework to compensate customers for small-value digital fraud, along with draft rules on mis-selling and loan recovery.

Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday announced a new framework to compensate customers up to an amount of Rs 25,000 for loss incurred in small-value fraudulent transactions.
Announcing the last bi-monthly policy for the current financial year, Malhotra said, "we will also publish a discussion paper on possible measures to enhance the safety of digital payments. Such measures may include lagged credits and additional authentication for specific class of users like senior citizens."
For customer protection, he said, RBI will issue three draft guidelines: one, relating to mis-selling; two, regarding recovery of loans and engagement of recovery agents; and three, on limiting liability of customers in un-authorised electronic banking transactions.
"It is also proposed to introduce a framework to compensate customers up to an amount of Rs 25000 for loss incurred in small-value fraudulent transactions," he said.
The extant instructions on limiting the liability of customers in unauthorised electronic banking transactions were issued in 2017, which deal with scenarios and timelines for zero/limited liability of a customer.
In view of the rapid adoption of technology in the banking sector and payments systems, since issuance of these instructions, the existing instructions have been reviewed, he said.
Accordingly, he said, the draft revised instructions, including a framework for compensation in case of small value fraudulent transactions, would be issued shortly for public consultation.
Observing that misselling financial products and services by any regulated entities has significant consequences for both customers as well as on such entities, Malhotra said, there is a felt need to ensure that third party products and services that are being sold at the bank counters are suitable to customer needs and are commensurate with the risk appetite of individual clients.
"It has therefore been decided to issue comprehensive instructions to REs on advertising, marketing and sales of financial products and services. Draft instructions in this regard would be issued shortly for public consultation," he said.
He further said different sets of instructions are applicable to different categories of REs with respect to the engagement of recovery agents and conduct related aspects of loan recovery presently.
It has now been decided to review and harmonise all the extant conduct related instructions on engagement of recovery agents and other aspects related to recovery of loans, he said.
Accordingly, the RBI Governor said, the draft instructions in this regard would be issued shortly for public consultation.
Announcing Mission Mission Saksham, the RBI Governor said it is focussed on capacity building for Urban Cooperative Banks.
Stressing that the Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks (UCBs) are vital institutions for promoting financial inclusion and serving the unbanked, he said, securing their next phase of growth would depend on developing stronger skills and competencies, along with technical capabilities and operational resilience in them.
To serve this objective, he said, the Reserve Bank will soon launch Mission SAKSHAM (Sahakari Bank Kshamta Nirman) -- a sector-wide capacity-building and certification framework.
The capacity building of the sector will be implemented through a large number of physical training programmes as well as a scalable learning platform, to cover about 1.40 lakh participants, across functions, he said.
The Reserve Bank would endeavour to conduct these training programmes at locations close to participating UCBs, with content delivery in regional languages to the extent feasible, he said.
The mission will be pursued in partnership with the umbrella organisation of UCBs and national/state federations.

RBI has raised GDP growth projections for FY27’s first two quarters, citing trade agreements, GST reforms and robust agricultural performance.

RBI revises FY27 Q1, Q2 GDP growth projections upward, defers full-year outlook to April policy after new GDP series

RBI has raised GDP growth projections for FY27&rsquo;s first two quarters, citing trade agreements, GST reforms and robust agricultural performance.

The Reserve Bank on Friday revised upwards GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of the next fiscal year to 6.9 per cent and 7 per cent for the subsequent three months on the back of trade deals, GST rationalisation, and robust farm output.
In December, the RBI had projected real GDP growth for the June quarter of 2026-27 at 6.7 per cent and 6.8 per cent for the July-September period.
Projections for the full year 2026-27 will be announced in the next monetary policy statement in April after taking into account the new GDP and CPI series with updated base year (2024=100).
"The Indian economy continues on a steadily improving trajectory, with real GDP poised to register significantly higher growth of 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, as compared to the previous year. Amidst global headwinds, private consumption and fixed investment supported growth," RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said while unveiling the monetary policy.
Going forward, he said economic activity is expected to hold up well in 2026-27.
Agricultural activity will be supported by healthy reservoir levels, robust rabi sowing, and improvement in crop vegetation conditions.
Further, improving corporate sector performance and sustained momentum in the informal sector should boost manufacturing activity, he said.
Also, construction sector growth is expected to remain firm and services sector should continue to be resilient, with strengthening domestic demand.
On the demand side, the momentum in private consumption is expected to sustain in 2026-27 while rural demand continues to be steady, the governor said.
The governor said recovery in urban consumption should further strengthen with continued support from GST rationalisation and monetary easing.
"High capacity utilisation, accelerating bank credit, conducive financial conditions, and the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure should give an impetus to investment activity," Malhotra said.
He further said the recently concluded India-EU free trade agreement (FTA) and the prospective India-US trade deal, along with several other trade agreements, will support exports over the medium-term.
Moreover, several measures announced in the Union Budget should also be conducive for growth.

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