Pakistan: 3 possible scenarios on no-confidence vote explained. Imran Khan stays, new PM, or early polls?

Pakistan is struggling with political turmoil, once again. Prime Minister Imran Khan has apparently lost majority in the National Assembly, with his allies deserting him.

Most observers feel he will lose the no-confidence motion, which will be taken up for voting on April 3. In the 342-member House, the magic number is 172.

While Imran Khan needs at least 172 votes to stay in power, his opponents need 172 votes to remove him. In case the Opposition fails to secure 172 votes, Imran Khan would stay PM even if he fails to reach the majority mark too, as per the Lansing Institute. Abstentions etc might result in this.

Another possibility is that a new government comes to power. A new candidate would need at least 172 votes in the National Assembly to be crowned PM, as per the Lansing Institute. The Opposition has reportedly announced that PML-N's Shehbaz Sharif would be the PM, and PPP's Bilawal Bhutto Zardari would have a key role.

In case the Opposition's Prime Ministerial candidate fails to secure majority, i.e. 172 votes, then the National Assembly would be dissolved, according to the Lansing Institute. This would lead to early elections. The new PM could also call early polls to legitimise their mandate.

Imran Khan could also call early elections ahead of the vote. The current Assembly's tenure reportedly ends in August 2023, and the next elections are supposed to be held within 60 days, as per the Lansing Institute.