Exit poll predicts big BJP win in Bengal, Assam; return of DMK in TN, dead heat in Kerala

A new exit poll on Thursday predicted that the BJP would win big in West Bengal and Assam, while the DMK would return to power in Tamil Nadu.

The Today's Chanakya poll also predicted a tight race in Kerala, forecasting 69 seats for the Congress-led UDF and 64 seats for the ruling LDF with a margin of error of nine seats.

Another exit poll by News18 for West Bengal, predicted a close fight with the BJP getting 143-163 seats and the TMC 127-147 seats.

Today's Chanakya forecast 192 seats for the BJP and 100 for the TMC in West Bengal with a margin of error of 11 seats. West Bengal has a total of 294 seats with the majority mark being 148.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, however, asserted that her party would win more than 226 seats and alleged that the exit poll projections were aired at the "instruction of the BJP" to demoralise TMC workers.

In Assam, Today's Chanakya forecast that the BJP would get 102 seats and the Congress 23 with a margin of error of nine seats. The Assam assembly has 126 seats with the magic mark being 64.

Today's Chanakya predicted that the DMK would return to power in Tamil Nadu but actor-turned-politician Vijay's TVK would have a stunning poll debut, beating AIADMK, to the second spot.

It predicted that the DMK plus would get 125 seats, TVK 63 seats and AIADMK plus 45 seats with a margin of error of 11 seats. The Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats with the magic mark being 118.

In Kerala, Today's Chanakya predicted a close contest, forecasting 69 seats (plus/minus nine seats) for the UDF, 64 seats (plus/minus nine seats) for the LDF and 7 seats (plus/minus four) for the BJP. Kerala assembly has 140 seats with the magic mark being 71.

Several exit polls on Wednesday predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in Assam and a clear edge for the party over the ruling TMC in West Bengal, while projecting a return of the DMK government in Tamil Nadu and a comeback by the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years.

However, some pollsters predicted a big win for the TMC in West Bengal and a hung House in Tamil Nadu with actor-turned politician Vijay's TVK emerging as a spoiler for the DMK.

Almost all forecast a return to power for the AINRC-led NDA government in Puducherry.

Most exit polls have had a chequered history and have been off the mark on several occasions in the past. Most exit polls do not spell out the methodology they have followed in arriving at their respective conclusions.

Axis My India on Thursday decided not to release its exit poll for West Bengal, saying it did not have enough data with many people not divulging their voting preferences.

The counting of votes for five assemblies -- West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam -- will be taken up on May 4.

Polls were conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. West Bengal saw two-phase polling on April 23 and 29.

On April 9, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to polls. Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 23.

While the BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it is in an alliance government with All India N R Congress, the Congress is looking to wrest power from its rival in both these places.

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is looking to retain power by thwarting the challenge from AIADMK-BJP and the debutant party -- Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.

The TMC is looking to retain West Bengal and thwart the challenge from the BJP.