UP Election 2022 | Battle for Bundelkhand: What do crowds at Akhilesh rallies suggest?

Bundelkhand, which is mostly in news for distressing drought, dacoits and caste conflicts, is in news for huge rallies of the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.

The challenger to Yogi Adityanath took out a yatra from December 1 to December 3, drawing massive crowds in the area that has not been a SP stronghold ever, prompting many to ask: Is Bundelkhand going to give SP a chance this time around.

But before we go into the politics in the region, let's take a look at the region itself first:

Bundelkhand is spread over about 69,000 sq. km. of land in seven districts of Uttar Pradesh and six districts of Madhya Pradesh.

The UP part of it comprises Chitrakut, Banda, Jhansi, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Mahoba and Lalitpur.

The MP arm of Bundelkhand is made of Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Damoh, Sagar, Datia and Panna.

Out of the total population of about 14.5 million, about 7.8 million live in roughly 29,000 sq. km. area of Uttar Pradesh while about 6.7 million people live in the roughly 40,000 sq. km. area of Madhya Pradesh.

Let's focus on the UP part of Bundelkhand as it will vote in the 2022 Assembly polls.

The seven districts have 19 Assembly seats and 4 Lok Sabha constituencies.

The region has traditionally been a BSP stronghold but turned saffron as BJP swept the state since 2014

A look at how Bundelkhand has voted in the past:

In 2012, BSP won 7, SP got 5, Congress 4 and
BJP 3 of the 19 seats.

But it all changed in 2014, when BJP swept all 4 Lok Sabha seats

In the 2017 Assembly polls. BJP won all 19 seats

In 2019 again, BJP swept all 4 Lok Sabha seats

BJP worked hard to turn Bundelkhand on to its side.

Before the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the BJP’s ‘Mission Bundelkhand’ from Mahoba with a ‘parivartan rally’ in October 2016.

This was the first time a prime minister was visiting Mahoba, an extremely backward district in the region. The strategy worked and in 2017 the BJP swept all 19 seats in Bundelkhand.

Recognising how crucial the region was, CM Yogi Adityanath formed the Bundelkhand Development Board in February 2019.

So, can the BJP retain its hard-fought stronghold or do the crowds at Akhilesh's rallies signal a change?

Samajwadi Party is trying hard to convert the region red this time after it turned totally saffron from Blue in the last election.

Akhilesh's Mission Bundelkhand is powered by some high-profile picking from Mayawati's BSP.

Several BSP leaders have joined SP:

Tilak Chand Ahirwar, who was very close to Maya, is now with SP

Kushwaha leader Madhusudan Kushwaha has also moved to the SP from BSP

Brother of former BSP leader Naseemuddin Siddiqui, who was an all-powerful minister in the Maya govt, has also joined SP

A few from Congress have also jumped to the SP side.

But crowds at rallies cannot be a sure shot parametre for votes. Tejashwi Yadav also drew huge crowds in BIhar 2020 polls and so did PM Modi and Amit Shah in Bengal 2021. But we know the results.

Another important factor in crowds surging at a leaders' rally is the ticket seekers. SP has not declared candidates yet. So all the aspirants gather crowds to pitch their claim.