How strong is BJP in Punjab, really? Decoding farmer, Akali, Amarinder, Modi factors | Elections 2022

The recent controversy over an alleged lapse in PM Modi's security in Punjab has highlighted the BJP's vigorous campaign for the state. The BJP is trying to capture headlines, and subsequently power, in a province where it has been a junior partner for decades.

The party's prospects seem to have been on a roller coaster with the downs including the protest against the farm laws, and the related break-up with the Shiromani Akali Dal, and the ups including infighting in the Congress, which led to one of its tallest leaders, Captain Amarinder Singh, donning saffron.

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ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC

The BJP currently 3 MLAs in the Punjab Assembly, which has a total strength of 117. It contested the 2017 elections with its then-ally Akali Dal, which won 15. The BJP had contested from 23 seats, and lost 20. The Akali Dal had fought on the remaining 94. The Congress had stormed to power with 77, while the Aam Aadmi Party gained a significant foothold with 20 seats.

The BJP's performance in the state elections has also been steadily declining. In the 2007 elections, the saffron party secured 19 seats with a vote share of 8.28%. Five years later, the seat share fell to 12 and the vote share to 7.18%. In the last elections, BJP won 3 seats with a 5.39% vote share. Traditionally, the BJP is said to have banked on upper caste Hindu and Dalit votes in the state, while the 'panthik' party Akali Dal focused on the Sikh. While Hindus reportedly form around 12% of the vote share, Dalits constitute around 32%. But the latter may swing towards the Congress as Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi belongs to the community. The Akali Dal has also allied with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party to gain an advantage here.

BJP-AKALI SEPARATION

So how significant was BJP's break-up with the Akali Dal, its partner for over 2 decades? The first polls that the two parties fought after separating were civic body elections in early 2021. The BJP was almost washed out, reportedly winning only 49 of 2,165 wards. It even lost in some of its strongholds.

THE NEW N.D.A.

The party is now in an alliance with former Congress veteran Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress. Also part of the grouping is Akali Dal (Sanyukt) - a breakaway faction of the Shiromani Akali Dal led by the Badals.

The BJP might be hoping to use Captain Amarinder's military background to attract voters in the border state. The party has been focusing on the national security issue heavily. Before the furore over PM Modi's security, there was the incident of a blast at the Ludhiana court complex, believed to be the handiwork of pro-Khalistani elements. However, anti-incumbency sentiment against Amarinder over issues like inaction in sacrilege cases, and the war on drugs is an unknown factor.

By allying with rebels like Amarinder and Akali Dal Sanyukt's, the BJP may also be hoping to attract leaders of other parties who may feel disenchanted after ticket distribution.

To woo Sikhs, the BJP has reportedly been campaigning on issues like the opening of the Kartarpur corridor, and fresh action in cases on the 1984 riots.

But the recently-repealed farm laws may still prove to be one of the biggest vote-swingers in the state. Whether the revocation has cooled down the anger of a year-long protest will soon be known.

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