London, Sep 26 (AP) Russia is reportedly selling military equipment and technology to China that might assist Beijing in preparing for a potential airborne invasion of Taiwan. This claim is based on an analysis conducted by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, which examined leaked Russian documents. These documents were obtained from the Black Moon hacktivist group and include approximately 800 pages of contracts and equipment lists that Moscow plans to supply to Beijing.
The Black Moon group, known for its opposition to aggressive foreign policy, previously published some of these documents online. While the authenticity of the documents cannot be independently verified by the Associated Press, the RUSI analysis suggests they appear genuine. The documents detail meetings between Chinese and Russian officials, including visits to Moscow, and specify timelines for payment and delivery of items such as high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles.
Although there's no concrete evidence that China has paid for or received the equipment, the analysts argue these weapons could significantly bolster China's capability to invade Taiwan. Under President Xi Jinping, China has undertaken a comprehensive modernization program for its armed forces, aiming to become a "world-class" military by 2050. High-ranking U.S. officials suggest Xi has ordered the Chinese military to be ready for a possible invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027.
The documents don't explicitly mention Taiwan; however, the RUSI analysis infers that the technology transfer could advance China's parachuting capabilities, potentially accelerating an invasion timeline. While a decision to invade Taiwan has not been confirmed, enhanced access to Russian equipment coupled with localized training could better prepare China for such an eventuality.
According to Oleksandr Danylyuk, Moscow’s assistance might quicken China's progress in airborne capabilities by about 10 to 15 years, helping to develop their airborne command, control training, and other procedures. Despite the potential for military collaboration, neither Russia's Kremlin nor the Chinese and Taiwanese defense ministries have responded with comments.
Strategically, Russia aims to enhance its role as a military supplier to China while funding its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the collaboration might tempt Beijing into a confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, potentially diverting U.S. attention away from Ukraine. Despite China's overall superior military capabilities, its airborne brigade may benefit from Russia’s extended experience and historical expertise.
Song Zhongping, a military analyst based in Beijing, acknowledged that while Chinese equipment might be superior, Russia's combat experience is unmatched. This alignment of strengths and weaknesses could be advantageous for both nations. A document from September 2024 indicates that Russia and China have completed early phases of their agreement, which includes technical specification analyses, software modifications, and equipment manufacturing.
Part of the agreement involves Russia providing training in China for an entire airborne battalion and supplying 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious self-propelled anti-tank guns, and 11 airborne armored personnel carriers. The total valuation of this transfer exceeds $210 million, and China requires all vehicles to be adapted for its communication and ammunition systems.
Moreover, Russia has agreed to provide high-altitude parachute systems capable of gliding from 8,000 meters, enabling Chinese special forces to penetrate foreign territories virtually unnoticed. The Dalnolyot system's capability was slated for performance evaluation under colder temperatures at a Moscow meeting in March 2024.
The lessons Russia garnered from its failed airborne operations in Ukraine could guide China's strategies in Taiwan. For example, during Russia's unsuccessful 2022 attempt to secure Ukrainian airfields, Russian forces failed to establish a tactical advantage. In contrast, China might attempt to deploy armored forces on Taiwanese golf courses near key infrastructure to begin operations and establish control quickly.
The lessons learned from Russia’s setbacks underscore China’s operational challenges if it decides to invade Taiwan, emphasizing the need for pre-emptively neutralizing air defenses and rapidly establishing control before opposition forces can mobilize.
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