Explained: why Pakistan PM Imran Khan is likely to lose no-confidence vote

Pakistan’s opposition is seeking to throw Prime Minister Imran Khan out after rallying thousands of people on a campaign that he has mismanaged the economy, governance and foreign policy.

The joint opposition consists of major parties such as the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) – of former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto – and has a strength of nearly 163 in the lower house of the Parliament. The Opposition needs a simple majority of 172 to prevail in the no-confidence vote.

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One of Imran Khan’s key allies has said the Pakistani leader is in danger of losing his coalition partners in the no-confidence vote. While referring to the four parties, which have a total of 20 seats in the lower house of parliament, the ally said all coalition partners have a tilt towards the Opposition.

Without them, Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party, which has 155 seats in the lower house, would fall short of the 172 needed to retain power.

The opposition and political analysts say Khan has fallen out with Pakistan’s powerful military whose support they see as critical for any political party to attain power in the way the former cricket star’s upstart party did four years ago.

Khan and the military deny the claim.

Amid the numbers game, both sides have called for sit-in protest rallies outside parliament in the capital Islamabad ahead of the voting, which analysts say has strengthened the prospect of clashes and violence.