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India’s economy is projected to expand करीब 8.1 per cent in the September–December quarter under the revised GDP series with 2022-23 as the new base year, according to a State Bank of India report.

India's GDP expected to register over 8 pc growth in Sep-Dec: Report

India&rsquo;s economy is projected to expand करीब 8.1 per cent in the September&ndash;December quarter under the revised GDP series with 2022-23 as the new base year, according to a State Bank of India report.

The Indian economy is expected to record a growth rate closer to 8.1 per cent in the September-December quarter under the revised series with the new base year of 2022-23, a report said on Tuesday.
The country witnessed a growth rate of 8 per cent in the first half of the ongoing financial year ending in March 2026.
According to the first advance estimate of the National Statistics Office (NSO) last month, real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.4 per cent in FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 6.5 per cent in the previous financial year.
The second advance estimates of GDP for FY26, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27.
So, all the previous quarterly numbers of the first quarter and the second quarter are expected to change with the change in base year to 2022-23.
"High-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in 3QFY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season," a report from State Bank of India's Economic Research Department said.
"Overall, we expect Q3FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 8.1 per cent. Given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision," it said.
It further said Scheduled Commercial Banks&rsquo; (SCBs) deposit growth remains muted compared to credit growth.
As per the latest RBI data, aggregate deposits grew by 12.5 per cent, while credit grew by 14.6 per cent.
With the rise in CD ratio, the gap between deposits and credit growth has increased, but such gaps are nothing new to the banking system, it said.

The IMF has upgraded India’s GDP growth projection to 7.3% for fiscal 2025-26, citing robust Q3 performance and strong momentum, with 6.4% forecast for 2026-27.

IMF raises India's GDP growth projection to 7.3 pc for FY26

The IMF has upgraded India&rsquo;s GDP growth projection to 7.3% for fiscal 2025-26, citing robust Q3 performance and strong momentum, with 6.4% forecast for 2026-27.

The IMF on Monday raised India's growth projection to 7.3 per cent for fiscal 2025-26, up 0.7 percentage point from its October forecast, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the economy.
The Washington-headquartered multilateral lending agency has also revised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.4 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27 beginning April 1, 2026, from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
"In India, growth is revised upward by 0.7 percentage point to 7.3 per cent for 2025 (fiscal FY26), reflecting the better-than-expected outturn in the third quarter of the year and strong momentum in the fourth quarter," it said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update.
Growth is projected to moderate to 6.4 per cent in 2026-27 and 2027-28 as cyclical and temporary factors wane, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
According to India's statistics ministry, GDP during April-September of 2025-26 registered a growth rate of 8 per cent, on the back of a robust 8.2 per cent growth in July-September period. The Indian economy is likely to expand by 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal, according to the First Advance Estimates released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The growth during 2024-25 fiscal was 6.5 per cent.
On inflation, IMF said it is expected to go back to near target levels after a marked decline in 2025 driven by subdued food prices. The Reserve Bank has a target to maintain consumer price index (CPI) based headline inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
The IMF update further said that the global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and at 3.2 per cent in 2027. The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 WEO.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to continue to hover just above 4 per cent in 2026 and 2027. Relative to the projection in October, growth in 2025 for China is revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 5 per cent, the IMF said.
Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027, it said.

Moody’s Ratings projects India’s GDP will expand 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, making it the fastest-growing economy among emerging markets and across the Asia-Pacific region.

India to lead emerging market growth with 7pc GDP rise in 2025: Moody’s

Moody&rsquo;s Ratings projects India&rsquo;s GDP will expand 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, making it the fastest-growing economy among emerging markets and across the Asia-Pacific region.

Moody's Ratings on Friday said with a 7 per cent GDP expansion in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in the next year, India will lead growth among emerging markets and across the Asia Pacific region.
Moody's also said that India's domestic growth drivers underpin its economic resilience amid global uncertainty.
Although the Indian rupee has continued to weaken against the dollar, most rated companies have active currency risk management or strong financial buffers, while investment-grade entities have demonstrated access to international capital markets.
"India will lead growth among emerging markets and across the region, with GDP growing 7 per cent in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in 2026," Moody's Ratings said.
Its projected average GDP growth in APAC (Asia-Pacific) will remain steady at 3.4 per cent in 2026 compared with 3.3 per cent in 2024 and expected growth of 3.6 per cent in 2025.
On a weighted average basis, emerging markets will drive GDP growth in the region, with average growth of 5.6 per cent, compared to average growth of 1.3 per cent in advanced markets, Moody's said.

The World Bank projects India’s GDP growth at 6.5% for FY26, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy, but flags US 50% tariffs as a risk.

World Bank raises India's growth projection to 6.5 pc for 2025-26

The World Bank projects India&rsquo;s GDP growth at 6.5% for FY26, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy, but flags US 50% tariffs as a risk.

The World Bank on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent from 6.3 per cent estimated earlier, and said the country is expected to remain fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by continued strength in consumption growth.
The World Bank also cautioned that 50 per cent tariffs on Indian shipments imposed by the US will have implications on the country in the coming year.
It lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2026-27 from 6.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent. For fiscal 2027-28, the World Bank has projected a growth of 6.3 per cent.
"India is expected to remain the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by continued strength in consumption growth," said World Bank's South Asia Development Update (October 2025).
Domestic conditions, particularly agricultural output and rural wage growth, have been better than expected. The government&rsquo;s reforms to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) &mdash; reducing the number of tax brackets and simplifying compliance &mdash; are expected to support activity.
"The forecast for FY26/27 has been downgraded...as a result of the imposition of a 50 per cent tariff on about three-quarters of India&rsquo;s goods exports to the United States," it said.
The report further said growth in South Asia is expected to slow sharply from 6.6 per cent in 2025 to 5.8 per cent in 2026.
Despite this deceleration, growth will remain stronger than in other emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) regions.
Inflation is expected to continue within or trend toward the central bank targets, it said.

Fitch Ratings upgrades India’s GDP growth estimate for FY26 to 6.9%, citing strong Q1 growth and domestic demand, while projecting slower growth in H2.

Fitch raises India's FY26 GDP forecast to 6.9 pc, domestic demand to drive growth

Fitch Ratings upgrades India&rsquo;s GDP growth estimate for FY26 to 6.9%, citing strong Q1 growth and domestic demand, while projecting slower growth in H2.

Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
Fitch is the first global rating agency to have upped India's GDP growth estimates for current fiscal year after the string of downward revisions by various agencies earlier this year due to trade and tariff uncertainties.
In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO)-September, Fitch said the pace of economic activity accelerated sharply between the March and June quarters of current fiscal year. The real GDP growth in April-June rose to 7.8 per cent year-on-year, from 7.4 per cent in January-March.
In its June GEO report, Fitch had forecast a 6.7 per cent growth for the April-June quarter.
"On the back of the 2Q25 (April-June) outturn, Fitch has revised up its forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26) to 6.9 per cent from 6.5 per cent in the June GEO," it said.
Fitch said the trade tensions with the US have increased in recent months, with the US imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on imports from India. Effective August 27, Indian goods in US attract a 50 per cent duty.
"We expect this will eventually be negotiated lower, but the uncertainty around trade relations will dampen business sentiment and potentially investment. The government has adopted reforms to the Goods and Services Tax to be effective from September 22, which should modestly boost consumer spending over the remainder of this and the next fiscal years," Fitch said.
Domestic demand will be the key driver of growth, as strong real income dynamics support consumer spending and looser financial conditions should feed through to investment, Fitch added.
However, Fitch expects growth to slow in the second half (October-March) of the financial year.
For the next fiscal year (2026-27), Fitch projected growth at 6.3 per cent, which would edge down to 6.2 per cent in FY28.
Fitch's FY26 GDP growth estimate for India is highest among other comparable agencies. Finance Ministry's Economic Survey had projected India's growth to be between 6.3-6.8 per cent in current fiscal year.
The Reserve Bank of India, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and S&amp;P Global Ratings projected India's GDP to expand 6.5 per cent in FY26.
Moody's Ratings estimates GDP to grow 6.3 per cent in 2025 calendar year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank estimates GDP growth at 6.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively.
Fitch said it expects food price pressures to remain weak, in the context of above-average monsoon rainfall and high food stockpiles, so that inflation will only pick up to 3.2 per cent by end-2025 and 4.1 per cent by end-2026.
"We still expect the RBI to cut rates by 25bps towards the end of the year, as it assesses the impact of the policy loosening already implemented, and that rates will stay there until end-2026. We expect the RBI to start raising rates in 2027," Fitch added.

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor downplays Donald Trump's “dead economy” remark, says India must focus on national interests amid global instability.

Shashi Tharoor Responds to Trump's 'Dead Economy' Remark on India

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor downplays Donald Trump's &ldquo;dead economy&rdquo; remark, says India must focus on national interests amid global instability.

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has said US President Donald Trump's remark terming India a &ldquo;dead economy&rdquo; was meant to be an "insult" and must not be taken "literally".
Tharoor on Sunday said that when wars are being conducted with the active involvement of some of the biggest powers, and people who are supposed to be upholding world order are contributing to promoting disorder, India needs to be very clear about its national interests.
The senior Congress leader, who was in conversation with Crossword CEO Aakash Gupta in Pune, spoke on a wide range of issues, including his latest book, "The Living Constitution".
US President Trump last week called India a &ldquo;dead economy&rdquo; just hours after he announced a 25 per cent tariff on the import of Indian goods along with an unspecified &ldquo;penalty&rdquo; for buying &ldquo;vast majority&rdquo; of Russian military equipment and crude oil.
Tharoor said that it is a turbulent and unpredictable world, especially with Trump in the White House.
"On Trump, let me say, you can't take him literally, but you do need to take him seriously. He is the President of the US, and the decisions he makes can affect policies, and policies can affect us. So take him seriously, but don't take him literally, not every word. When he says your economy is dead, it's like a schoolboy in the playground saying your mother is ugly. You are not supposed to take that seriously. It is meant to be an insult, not meant to be taken literally," he said.
The entire impact of Trump's tariff policies over the last six months or so has taken the whole world back, and India too had a bit of a jolt just two to three days ago, Tharoor said.
"We are going to have to recover because the American relationship, and I don't just mean the trade relationship, the strategic partnership, is important enough for us to want to make the real effort to make this work. So I think there is a lot that needs to be done," he said.
He added that the credibility of the United Nations Charter and the Security Council is cast into question.
"...the wars are being conducted with the active involvement of some of the biggest powers in the world. And that, again, means that the people who are supposed to be upholding world order are contributing to promoting disorder. In the midst of all this, what does India do to navigate its position? Well, first of all, of course, we have to be very clear in our minds what our national interests are," Tharoor said.
India's first and most important national interest is the well-being of its people, of the Indian people, he said.
"And that means focusing on our development, on our prosperity, on our harmony, on our coexistence with each other, and on the safety and security of our borders as well, which have recently been threatened both from the Chinese side and the Pakistani side. And we have to be prepared to be robustly able to defend ourselves without jeopardising the larger story of our development and our growth," he said.
On the international front, India has to play a constructive role, he said.
"We have to be amongst the rule makers and not just the rule takers. We have to be a significant player so that we are not in a position where others can dictate to us or push us around. Our credibility matters. We are already the most populous country in the world. We are already amongst the largest economies in the world and will soon be the third largest. In all these circumstances, we do matter. We have to be counted. But at the same time, we have to be sure what we want to be counted for," he asserted.
Tharoor said that with India already clear about its interests and how it needs to stand up for its people, the country will navigate all this unpredictability and uncertainty with ability and skill, and said that is what he is counting on the country's diplomats to be able to do.
Asked about the delegation led by him to the US to brief on Operation Sindoor, his meeting with US Vice President J D Vance, the Congress MP said, "We had extremely good and effective meetings as not only was our message well received, but it was almost repeated back to us with sympathy, understanding, and respect." "I had a very limited mandate. We were just there to explain Operation Sindoor, why we did what we did, what the thing was all about and what it was not all about, and the fact that we had to convey to the outside world that if terrorists strike us again, we will have to strike back again, so they better be prepared for that. And those messages were very clearly respected, understood, and applauded," he added.

Congress accuses Modi government of devastating Indian economy through demonetisation, flawed GST, Chinese imports, and stagnant wages. Rahul Gandhi echoes Trump's "dead economy" remark.

Congress Accuses Modi Govt of Damaging Indian Economy

Congress accuses Modi government of devastating Indian economy through demonetisation, flawed GST, Chinese imports, and stagnant wages. Rahul Gandhi echoes Trump's "dead economy" remark.

The Congress on Friday claimed that the Indian economy has been well and truly devastated by a series of "five Modi-inflicted shocks", and said the government as well as its cheerleaders are being economical with the truth of the real state of the economy.
Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh said the Modi government, its drumbeaters and cheerleaders are living in a make-believe world.
The opposition party's assertions came a day after former Congress president and Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi said everybody except Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman know that the country's economy is "dead".
In a post on X, Ramesh said, "Over the past decade, the Indian economy has been well and truly devastated by a series of five Modi-inflicted shocks. Nobody else can be held responsible." He said demonetisation completely disrupted our growth momentum and destroyed the livelihoods of crores of Indians.
"A fundamentally flawed GST--that is a Tax that is neither Good nor Simple--has wreaked havoc on thousands of business enterprises across the country, except the large companies who can afford to pay the cost associated with GST compliance," Ramesh said.
He further claimed that the record imports from China have led to the closure of lakhs of MSMEs across the country--in Gujarat alone, around a third of the MSMEs in the stainless steel industry have shut down their operations.
Exports in key areas are dependent on imports of raw materials, components, and intermediates from China, he said.
Ramesh pointed out that private investment has lost the buoyancy it demonstrated during 2004-14.
"Indian industrialists are acquiring citizenship of other countries in an ever increasing measure. The politically motivated and extortionist Raid Raj, coupled with the proliferation of Modani's tentacles, has led to a loss of confidence in the Indian economy," Ramesh alleged.
He argued that wages for the majority of Indians have stagnated in the last decade, across sectors and across classes.
"This is particularly so in rural India. Household savings have fallen sharply just as household debt has ballooned. Private mass consumption, one of the key drivers of growth, is sputtering just as luxury consumption has not ebbed, clearly pointing to sharpening economic inequalities," the Congress leader said.
"The Modi government, its drumbeaters and cheerleaders are living in a make-believe world. They are being economical with the truth of the real state of the economy," Ramesh said.
On Thursday, Gandhi had alleged that the BJP-led government has destroyed the country's economic, defence and foreign policies, and is "running the country to the ground".
Speaking with reporters in the Parliament House complex, Gandhi had also claimed that a trade deal with the US will happen and US President Donald Trump will define it.
Asked about Trump calling the Indian economy "dead", the Congress leader had said, "He is right, everybody knows this except the prime minister and the finance minister. Everybody knows that the Indian economy is a dead economy. I am glad that President Trump has stated a fact." He had alleged that the BJP has destroyed the Indian economy.

India must create 8 million jobs annually for the next decade and boost manufacturing to meet its goal of becoming a developed nation by 2047, says Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran.

India to generate 8 mln jobs per year for next 10-12 years: Chief Economic Advisor Nageswaran

India must create 8 million jobs annually for the next decade and boost manufacturing to meet its goal of becoming a developed nation by 2047, says Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran.

India has to generate 8 million jobs per year at least for the next 10-12 years and raise the share of manufacturing in GDP as it strives to achieve the vision of becoming a developed country by 2047, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India V Anantha Nageswaran said.
"We have a vision to achieve a developed India by 2047. The biggest challenge, apart from India's size, is that the external environment is not going to be so benign for the next 10-20 years as one might have had in the last 30 years, starting from 1990 or so,&rdquo; Nageswaran said here Saturday.
&ldquo;But within this context - that's a given, you can't choose your external environment beyond a point - we have to generate 8 million jobs per year at least for the next 10 to 12 years...And raise the manufacturing share of GDP, in the context of China having achieved such a tremendous manufacturing dominance, especially post-COVID,&rdquo; he said.
Nageswaran was addressing the Columbia India Summit 2025 hosted by the Deepak and Neera Raj Centre on Indian Economic Policies at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.
He outlined that artificial intelligence, technology, and robotics are challenges that some of the developed countries of today do not have to face in their developmental journey.
"But India, with its size, has to navigate this huge, complex challenge, and there are no easy answers. If you look at the number of jobs we need to create, it&rsquo;s about 8 million jobs a year. And Artificial Intelligence may have a big role in taking away entry-level jobs, or low IT-enabled services jobs may come under threat,&rdquo; he said.
He added that it is one thing to prepare the population for a world dominated by AI, but it is another thing to ensure that &ldquo;we find the right balance between labour-centric policies and technology, because technology at the end of the day is not just a choice to be made by technologists. It has to be made by public policymakers.&rdquo; As India moves towards achieving the vision of &lsquo;Viksit Bharat&rsquo; by 2047, the centennial year of its independence, it has to plug Indian businesses into global value chains as well as create a viable small and medium enterprise sector because manufacturing and MSME both go together. &ldquo;Countries that became manufacturing powerhouses did not do so without having a viable small and medium enterprise sector,&rdquo; he said.
Nageswaran further said that either investment rates have to rise from where they are or &ldquo;we have to make sure that we extract maximum possible juice out of existing investments because global capital flows are also going to be affected by ongoing conflicts between nations." He said that, therefore, it is not that external trade is not going to matter.
"It will matter and we need to focus on that because external competitiveness is also a way to boost domestic innovation, domestic potential growth." "But at the same time, we cannot expect that to contribute the way it did in the first decade, when India averaged 8 to 9 per cent GDP growth between 2003 and 2008. Every year, exports contributed 40% to GDP growth in the first decade, especially pre-crisis. In the second decade, that contribution came down to 20%, and in the third decade it might be even lower,&rdquo; he said.
Nageswaran noted that it is not that India&rsquo;s export competitiveness does not matter.
"It has to be the driving force. One has to get up one's game on quality, R&amp;D and internally on logistics and last-mile connectivity. But from a policy perspective, it will make sense to assume that it will not be so easily possible to extract growth out of exports as we used to do before,&rdquo; he said.
He noted that in the last three years post-COVID, India&rsquo;s growth has averaged more than 8%.
"Obviously, in the current environment, sustaining an 8% growth rate is going to be a very tall order. But if we can maintain growth rates of even 6.5 per cent on a sustainable basis over the next decade or two and look to opportunistically increase it to over 7 per cent by focusing on domestic deregulation, that will be the way to go.&rdquo; Last week, the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) had said India is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025 on the back of continued robust public spending and ongoing monetary easing, even as the world economy is on a recessionary trajectory, driven by escalating trade tensions and persistent uncertainty.
The day-long event at Columbia was attended by faculty, students, policy experts and economists and the discussion focused on the future of India's economy, innovation and trade.
"The task ahead for India is quite immense in a difficult and challenging global environment, but I think the policy determination and identification of priorities, as we have done with emphasis on deregulation, can enable us to maintain the growth advantage even in this difficult environment,&rdquo; Nageswaran said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised the GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 to 6.7%, citing strong rabi crop output and an industrial recovery. Inflation is projected to moderate to 4.2%, with risks evenly balanced.

RBI raises GDP growth forecast to 6.7% for 2025-26, inflation expected to ease

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised the GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 to 6.7%, citing strong rabi crop output and an industrial recovery. Inflation is projected to moderate to 4.2%, with risks evenly balanced.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday revised its real GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 to 6.7%, citing strong rabi crop output and a revival in industrial activity as key factors driving economic expansion.
Additionally, the central bank expects CPI inflation to moderate to 4.4% in the final quarter of the current fiscal year and decline further to 4.2% in 2025-26.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated, "Looking ahead, healthy rabi prospects and an expected recovery in industrial activity should support economic growth in 2025-26."
&nbsp;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WATCH?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WATCH</a> | Making a statement on Monetary Policy, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra says, "RBI has estimated that real GDP growth for the next year to be at about 6.7%...." (Source - RBI) <a href="https://t.co/SsY1DknMM4">pic.twitter.com/SsY1DknMM4</a>
&mdash; ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1887726890431209790?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
He also emphasized the role of domestic demand in sustaining growth. "Among the key drivers on the demand side, household consumption is expected to remain robust, aided by the tax relief in the Union Budget 2025-26," Malhotra noted.
Regarding investments, he highlighted improving conditions in key sectors. &ldquo;Fixed investment is expected to recover, supported by higher capacity utilization levels, healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates, and the Government&rsquo;s continued emphasis on capital expenditure,&rdquo; Malhotra said during his post-Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) address.
However, he cautioned that global uncertainties and climate risks remain potential threats to economic growth.
<h3>GDP Growth Projection for 2025-26:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Q1: 6.7%</li>
<li>Q2: 7.0%</li>
<li>Q3 &amp; Q4: 6.5% each</li>
<li>Overall Growth: 6.7% (with balanced risks)</li>
</ul>
In December, the RBI had revised its GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 7.2%, reflecting ongoing global economic challenges.
Malhotra acknowledged that the global economy remains under pressure, even as trade activity shows resilience. He pointed to slower disinflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and policy unpredictability as major hurdles.
Additionally, he highlighted the impact of the strong US dollar on emerging market currencies, including the depreciation of the Indian rupee, stating that the RBI is actively monitoring and stabilizing the currency.
On the domestic front, Malhotra referred to First Advance Estimates, which peg India's real GDP growth at 6.4% for 2024-25, driven by private consumption, a strong services sector, and an agricultural recovery. However, weak industrial growth remains a challenge.
<h3>Inflation Outlook:</h3>
<ul>
<li>2024-25 CPI Inflation Projection: 4.8% (Q4: 4.4%)</li>
<li>2025-26 CPI Inflation Projection: 4.2%</li>
<li>Q1: 4.5%</li>
<li>Q2: 4.0%</li>
<li>Q3: 3.8%</li>
<li>Q4: 4.2%</li>
</ul>
Malhotra noted that headline inflation softened in November-December 2024, following its 6.2% peak in October, mainly due to a decline in food inflation, particularly vegetable prices.
Going forward, food inflation is expected to ease further, supported by a good kharif harvest, lower winter vegetable prices, and favorable rabi crop conditions. Core inflation is anticipated to rise slightly but remain moderate.
However, global financial instability, volatile energy prices, and extreme weather events continue to pose risks to the inflation trajectory.
Meanwhile, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 6.5 per cent to 6.25 per cent, marking the first rate cut since May 2020.
ALSO READ: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/rbi-cuts-policy-rate-by-25-bps-to-6-25-pc-first-reduction-in-five-years-1738911995651" target="_blank">RBI cuts policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25 pc, first reduction in five years</a>
The central bank also projected the retail inflation at 4.2 per cent for next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 per cent.
ALSO READ: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/rbi-projects-fy26-inflation-at-4-2-pc-down-from-4-8-pc-estimate-in-2024-25-1738912742906" target="_blank">RBI projects FY26 inflation at 4.2 pc, down from 4.8 pc estimate in 2024-25</a>

India's economy is expected to grow at 6.5% in FY26, driven by lower inflation and potential RBI rate cuts. Crisil’s report highlights fiscal consolidation, private sector investments, and export challenges impacting growth.

Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in FY26: Crisil

India's economy is expected to grow at 6.5% in FY26, driven by lower inflation and potential RBI rate cuts. Crisil&rsquo;s report highlights fiscal consolidation, private sector investments, and export challenges impacting growth.

India&rsquo;s economy is projected to expand by 6.5% in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), a slight increase from the estimated 6.4% growth in FY25, according to a report by Crisil.&nbsp;
The report attributes this expected growth to lower inflation and potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), provided global conditions remain stable and the country experiences a normal monsoon. It states, "Lower inflation and the RBI's rate cuts are expected to lift growth next fiscal, assuming a normal monsoon and lower crude oil prices."
The report underscores that while government spending will continue to support economic activity, the impact of fiscal stimulus will gradually diminish due to ongoing fiscal consolidation.&nbsp;
A crucial factor for sustained growth will be private sector investments, which need to gain momentum. However, external challenges, including tariff hikes by the United States, could pose risks to India's export performance.
Inflation is projected to moderate further, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation expected to decline from 4.7% in FY25 to 4.4% in FY26. This reduction will be driven by an anticipated normal monsoon, a high base effect in food inflation, and softer global commodity prices.&nbsp;
However, non-food inflation may witness a marginal uptick due to an adverse base effect. If inflation approaches the RBI&rsquo;s target of 4%, it could pave the way for additional rate cuts, further stimulating economic growth.
Crisil also forecasts a gradual reduction in India&rsquo;s fiscal deficit, which stood at 5.6% of GDP in FY24. It is expected to decline to 4.8% in FY25 and further to 4.4% in FY26, supported by disciplined revenue expenditure and a continued emphasis on capital investment.
On the external front, the current account deficit (CAD) is likely to widen from 1.0% of GDP in FY25 to 1.3% in FY26, primarily due to trade headwinds from U.S. policies affecting exports. However, a strong services trade balance, steady remittance inflows, and lower crude oil prices will help contain any sharp increase in the deficit.
The Indian rupee is projected to depreciate gradually, averaging ₹86 per dollar in FY25 and ₹87 per dollar in FY26. While the CAD remains within manageable levels, global geopolitical uncertainties may contribute to fluctuations in currency markets.
Crisil&rsquo;s outlook indicates that India&rsquo;s economy is on track for steady growth, supported by easing inflation and potential monetary policy adjustments by the RBI. However, challenges such as subdued exports and the need for stronger private investment could impact the overall growth trajectory.

India's Economic Survey 2024-25 emphasizes the country's potential to benefit from AI, stressing the need for investments in education and workforce skilling. The survey also highlights challenges related to AI adoption.

India's Economic Survey 2024-25 highlights AI potential, workforce challenges

India's Economic Survey 2024-25 emphasizes the country's potential to benefit from AI, stressing the need for investments in education and workforce skilling. The survey also highlights challenges related to AI adoption.

India's diverse economy and demographic advantage offer a unique position to benefit from the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), according to the Economic Survey for 2024-25 tabled in Parliament on Friday.&nbsp;
However, realizing these advantages requires significant investments in education and workforce development, along with the creation of institutions that can provide necessary support for adapting to technological changes.&nbsp;
The Economic Survey, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, stated, "These mechanisms can help workers adapt to changing demands while providing essential safety nets."
Despite AI's significant potential, the technology is still in a developmental phase and faces several challenges. While its growth is undeniable, AI has not yet reached the level of widespread adoption seen with technologies like personal computers and the internet.&nbsp;
The Economic Survey, prepared under Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran&rsquo;s leadership, stressed the importance of policymakers considering the evolving nature of AI and its effects on labor markets.&nbsp;
"Historical parallels with earlier technological revolutions reveal the critical role of inclusive institutions in managing disruption and ensuring equitable outcomes," the report said.
The survey also highlighted several barriers to AI's large-scale implementation, such as concerns over reliability, infrastructure deficits, and inefficiencies. As AI&rsquo;s capabilities grow, so do concerns about its impact on labor markets, particularly in light of recent developments.&nbsp;
The Economic Survey quoted OpenAI&rsquo;s founder, who predicted the arrival of "AI workers" by the end of 2025. As AI systems become increasingly advanced, they are expected to outperform humans in decision-making roles across sectors like healthcare, criminal justice, business, and finance, which presents both opportunities and challenges.
The Economic Survey emphasized the need for a responsible and balanced approach to AI adoption, particularly in India, where the scale of employment means the impacts will be more pronounced. The chapter on AI also noted a significant shift in public perceptions of the technology, calling for its development to align with societal goals.&nbsp;
The report noted the rise of leading AI companies, including Google (Gemini), Microsoft (Co-Pilot), Meta (MetaAI with Llama), and others, and pointed to the growing global interest in AI. Between 2021 and 2022, AI patents granted worldwide rose by 62.7%, totaling over 62,000 patents, and private investment in generative AI surged from USD 3 billion in 2022 to USD 25.2 billion in 2023.
Corporate investments in AI between 2021 and 2023 reached USD 761 billion globally, with more companies referencing AI in their earnings calls, and CEOs anticipating that AI adoption will reduce labor requirements in various industries.&nbsp;
The Economic Survey's assessment underscores the need for India to strategically navigate the opportunities and challenges presented by AI, ensuring its benefits while mitigating potential disruptions to the workforce. ALSO READ: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/india-s-economic-growth-projected-at-6-3-6-8-in-fy26-economic-survey-2024-25-1738313681624" target="_blank">India&rsquo;s economic growth projected at 6.3%-6.8% in FY26: Economic Survey 2024-25</a>

The UN projects India’s economy to grow by 6.6% in 2025, supported by strong private consumption, infrastructure investment, and export performance. 

India’s Economy to Expand 6.6% in 2025: UN

The UN projects India&rsquo;s economy to grow by 6.6% in 2025, supported by strong private consumption, infrastructure investment, and export performance. Inflation is forecast to decline to 4.3%, staying within the RBI&rsquo;s target range.

The Indian economy is projected to expand by 6.6 per cent in 2025, primarily supported by robust private consumption and investment, according to a United Nations report.
The report titled <a href="https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2025" target="_blank">'the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025'</a> was released on Wednesday.
It also said that the near-term outlook for South Asia is expected to remain robust, with growth projected at 5.7 per cent in 2025 and 6.0 per cent in 2026, &ldquo;driven by strong performance in India as well as economic recovery in a few other economies&rdquo;, including Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
The Indian economy grew by 6.8 per cent in 2024 and is forecast to expand by 6.6 per cent in 2025. The Indian economy is projected to return to the 6.8 per cent growth in 2026.
&ldquo;The economy of India, the largest in the (South Asia) region, is forecast to expand by 6.6 per cent in 2025, primarily supported by robust private consumption and investment. Additionally, capital expenditure on infrastructure development is expected to have strong multiplier effects on growth in the coming years,&rdquo; the report said.
It added that strong export growth in services and certain goods categories, particularly pharmaceuticals and electronics, will bolster economic activity for India. On the supply side, expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors will keep driving the economy throughout the forecast period.
Meanwhile, favourable monsoon rains in 2024 have improved the summer-sowing areas for all major crops, boosting agricultural output expectations for 2025.
Investment growth has remained particularly strong in East Asia and South Asia, partly driven by domestic and foreign investments in new supply chains, particularly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, the report said.
In India, the public sector continues to play a pivotal role in funding large-scale infrastructure projects, physical and digital connectivity, and social infrastructure, including improvements in sanitation and water supply. Strong investment growth is expected to continue through 2025.
Consumer price inflation in India is forecast to decelerate from an estimated 4.8 per cent in 2024 to 4.3 per cent in 2025, staying within the 2&ndash;6 per cent medium-term target range set by the central bank. While decreasing energy prices have contributed to the ongoing decline, adverse weather conditions have kept prices of vegetables, cereals, and other staples elevated in 2024, resulting in spikes in the country&rsquo;s headline inflation in June and September.
It said that several developing economies, including China, India, and Mexico, have maintained robust investment growth, while African nations have faced limited public investment due to high debt servicing burdens, and Western Asia has experienced low investment growth amid subdued oil revenues.
Global economic growth is forecast at 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 2.9 per cent in 2026, largely unchanged from the rate of 2.8 per cent recorded in 2023 and estimated for 2024.
The positive but moderately slower growth projected for the two largest economies&mdash; China and the United States of America&mdash;will likely be complemented by mild recovery in the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom and strong performance in several large developing economies, notably India and Indonesia, it said.
China is facing the prospect of gradual economic moderation, with growth estimated at 4.9 per cent in 2024 and projected at 4.8 per cent in 2025. Public sector investments and strong export performance are partly offset by subdued consumption growth and lingering weakness in the property sector.
The Chinese authorities have stepped up policy support to lift property markets, address local government debt challenges, and boost domestic demand; the impacts of relevant initiatives are expected to be manifested over time, it said.
The shrinking population and rising trade and technology tensions, if unaddressed, could threaten the country&rsquo;s medium-term growth prospects, it said.
Among developing countries, robust momentum in India and modest growth acceleration in Africa, Western Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean will offset a slight moderation of growth in China.
The report noted that weaker external demand, persistent debt challenges, and social unrest and political turmoil in some economies may undermine the outlook for the South Asian region.
&ldquo;However, risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside owing to the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions, deceleration in external demand, ongoing debt challenges, and social unrest. In addition, as the region is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate hazards, extreme weather events pose a significant risk,&rdquo; it said.
It said that the labour market situation in developing countries remains challenging, with significant variations in the outlook driven by differing economic conditions and policy responses. Some economies have exhibited resilience, it said adding that employment indicators in India have remained robust.
In India, employment indicators have remained strong throughout 2024, with labour force participation near record highs, the report said, citing the Reserve Bank of India data.
Urban unemployment stood at 6.6 per cent during this period&mdash;virtually unchanged from the rate of 6.7 per cent recorded in 2023. Although there has been progress in female labour market participation in the country, substantial gender gaps remain.
Climate-related shocks have battered South Asia in 2024. During the first half of the year, several of the region&rsquo;s countries&mdash;including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka&mdash;experienced heatwaves, droughts, and irregular rainfall patterns, which led to reduced crop yields and elevated food prices.
Additionally, extreme weather events have disproportionately affected poor rural households, leading to reductions in income and widening income inequality, the report said.

India's GDP growth rate for 2024-25 is estimated at 6.4%, marking a four-year low primarily due to a slowdown in the manufacturing and services sectors. 

India’s GDP growth forecast at 6.4% for 2024-25

India's GDP growth rate for 2024-25 is estimated at 6.4%, marking a four-year low primarily due to a slowdown in the manufacturing and services sectors.&nbsp;

India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, mainly on account of poor showing by the manufacturing and services sector, according to government data released on Tuesday.
The gross domestic product (GDP) rate of 6.4 per cent will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8 per cent. It was 9.7 per cent in 2021-22; 7 per cent in 2022-23; and 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal ended March 2024.
The first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) is lower than the 6.6 per cent projected by the Reserve Bank in December 2024. It is also a tad lower than the finance ministry's initial projection of 6.5-7 per cent.
The advance estimates will be used in preparation for the Union Budget to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha on February 1.
The manufacturing sector output is expected to decelerate to 5.3 per cent from a high of 9.9 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal, NSO said in the first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25.
The services sector, comprising trade, hotels, transport and communications, is estimated to expand at 5.8 per cent against 6.4 per cent in 2023-24.
On the other hand, the farm sector is estimated to record a growth of 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 1.4 per cent in 2023-24.
"Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2 per cent in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24," NSO said.
Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7 per cent in 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2023-24.
According to the data, nominal GDP (GDP at current prices) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 324.11 lakh crore in the year 2024-25 against Rs 295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7 per cent.
The size of the economy, as per the current estimates, is USD 3.8 trillion (@ Rs 85.7/USD) during 2024-25.
Further, the nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 292.64 lakh crore in 2024-25 against Rs 267.62 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.3 per cent.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3 per cent during 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4 per cent in the previous financial year.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1 per cent compared to the growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the previous fiscal.

Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, supply chain disruptions, and the escalating impact of climate change could weigh heavily on growth and long-term economic stability.

Indian economy to grow at 6.5-6.8 pc in FY'25 on higher domestic consumption: Deloitte

Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, supply chain disruptions, and the escalating impact of climate change could weigh heavily on growth and long-term economic stability.

Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.5-6.8 per cent this fiscal and slightly higher between 6.7-7.3 per cent in FY2026, boosted by domestic consumption, Deloitte said on Sunday.
Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar said the growth in the first half of the fiscal year 2025 turned out to be slower than estimated as election uncertainties followed by disruptions in activity due to heavy rainfall and geopolitical events weighed on domestic demand and exports.
However, India continues to show resilience in certain pockets that are worth noting -- be it in consumption trends, services growth, the rising share of high-value manufacturing in exports, or the capital market.
The government's continued focus on infrastructure development, digitisation, and attracting FDI will be the additional growth booster, enhancing overall efficiency.
"We remain cautiously optimistic and expect the growth rate to remain between 6.5 and 6.8 per cent this fiscal year and slightly higher between 6.7 and 7.3 per cent in FY2026," Majumdar told PTI.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent projected in June.
Deloitte said manufacturing exports in high-value segments like electronics, semiconductors, and chemicals reflect India's strengthening position in global value chains.
Meanwhile, capital markets have shown stability despite significant FII outflows over the past two and a half months, thanks to rising participation from retail and domestic institutional investors.
"We anticipate several of these trends to persist through 2025. We believe domestic consumption will remain the cornerstone of India's economic growth, with both rural and urban demand playing key roles.
"A myriad of factors, such as improved agricultural incomes, targeted subsidies, social welfare programmes, government employment initiatives, advancements in digitisation, and stronger services sector growth will help broad-base consumption spending," Majumdar said.
India will have to ride out the rough patch, as several global headwinds pose challenges. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, supply chain disruptions, and the escalating impact of climate change could weigh heavily on growth and long-term economic stability, she added.
Anticipated policy changes and trade restrictions in the US could impact export demand and capital flows into the country. Besides, central banks in the West may not go for as many rate cuts next year if inflation starts moving north. Tighter global liquidity will likely limit the RBI's ability to manoeuvre monetary policy.
Majumdar said over the next few years, India's growth will hinge on its ability to economically decouple from global uncertainties.
"The Indian economy has the opportunity to turn the lime into lemonade by focusing on three factors. The first would be to build on its own strengths. Harnessing the demographic dividend and growing middle-class wealth through investments in workforce development and employability will drive consumption, reduce skill gaps, boost the labour market, and strengthen capital markets," she said.
The second would be the emphasis on building a self-reliant manufacturing sector that will not only meet India's rising domestic demand but also integrate with the global value chain. Also, by advancing digitally delivered services and targeting high-value segments of global value chains, India can capitalise on opportunities, even amid nearshoring and deglobalisation trends.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Editorji News Desk and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Union minister Nitin Gadkari on Thursday said the Indian electric vehicle market potential is likely to touch Rs 20 lakh crore and will create around 5 crore jobs across the entire EV ecosystem by 2030.

India's EV market to hit Rs 20 lakh crore by 2030: Gadkari

According to Gadkari, the government is concentrating on green energy as 44 per cent of India's power basket is solar power.

Union minister Nitin Gadkari on Thursday said the Indian electric vehicle market potential is likely to touch Rs 20 lakh crore and will create around 5 crore jobs across the entire EV ecosystem by 2030.
Addressing the '8th Catalyst Conference on Sustainability of E-Vehicle Industry - Evexpo 2024', Gadkari said estimated electric vehicles finance market size will be around Rs 4 lakh crore by 2030.
"The Indian electric vehicles market potential is of Rs 20 lakh crore by 2030, creating five crore jobs across the entire EV ecosystem," he said.
The road transport and highways minister said 40 per cent of air pollution in India is because of the transport sector.
"We import fossil fuels worth Rs 22 lakh crore, that is a big economic challenge. And this import of fossil fuels is creating a lot of problems in our country," Gadkari said.
According to Gadkari, the government is concentrating on green energy as 44 per cent of India's power basket is solar power.
"We are giving highest priority for development of our hydro power, then solar power, green power, particularly from biomass. And now solar power is one of the important sources for all of us," he said.
The minister pointed out that India is facing shortages of electric buses.
"Our country requires one lakh electric buses but our capacity is 50,000 buses. I request all of you that this is the appropriate time that you can expand your factory," he said.
Gadkari asked electric vehicle manufacturers not to compromise with the quality.
He said the size of India's automobile industry was Rs 7 lakh crore when he took charge as transport minister in 2014. "Today it (the size of the automobile sector) is Rs 22 lakh crore. Our number is third in the world. We just surpassed Japan," he said.
The size of the USA's automobile industry is Rs 78 lakh crore, followed by China (Rs 47 lakh crore) and India (Rs 22 lakh crore).

The credit growth momentum is already moderating, the brokerage said, pointing out that the number has come down to 15.4 per cent in March as compared to 16 per cent in February and 16.7 per cent in January

Credit growth likely to moderate to 10 pc in FY24: Report

The credit growth momentum is already moderating, the brokerage said, pointing out that the number has come down to 15.4 per cent in March as compared to 16 per cent in February and 16.7 per cent in January

The credit growth momentum is waning in the country and the crucial non-food loans growth is expected to slip to 10 per cent in FY24 from more than 15 per cent in FY23, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday.
Ebbing inflationary pressures, especially on the wholesale side which tends to lower working capital needs, and a likely moderation in GDP growth to 5.3 per cent in FY24 were cited as the primary reasons for the lower bank credit growth expectation by Nomura.
"&hellip; we expect credit growth to moderate to 10 per cent in FY24 from 15 per cent in FY23," analysts at the brokerage said in a report, adding that the base effect will also be partly responsible for driving the number down.
They also said the rate hikes of more than 2.50 per cent by RBI in the current tightening cycle will impact credit growth through a lagged impact on borrowings, and already, there are some signs of a dent on the home loan front.
The credit growth momentum is already moderating, the brokerage said, pointing out that the number has come down to 15.4 per cent in March as compared to 16 per cent in February and 16.7 per cent in January.
"A further moderation is likely. Underlying credit momentum, as measured by the 3-month saar (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) has declined even more sharply to 9.3 per cent in March from over 20 per cent at end-2022," it said.
It can be noted that all lenders have been having a great run with high credit growth and lowest stress on the books in over a decade at present.

India's manufacturing PMI increased to 56.4 in March up from 55.3 in February, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity for the 21st consecutive month. 

India's manufacturing activity expansion continues in March 

India's manufacturing PMI increased to 56.4 in March up from 55.3 in February, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity for the 21st consecutive month.&nbsp;

India's manufacturing PMI expanded from 55.3 in Feb to 56.4 in March. This comes as the 21st month of manufacturing PMI remaining above 50.&nbsp; A PMI reading of more than 50 reflects an expansion in manufacturing activity and a number that's less than 50 shows a contraction.&nbsp;
"India's manufacturing sector posted a remarkable performance at the end of the final fiscal quarter, as growth of factory orders and production quickened to the strongest in three months," S&amp;P Global said in a statement.
This also comes on the back of strong GST collections of Rs 1.6 lakh crore in March, which is among the highest GST collections seen since its introduction.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

RBI: Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023, India will have a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year

Unlike global economy, India would not slow down: RBI article

RBI: Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023, India will have a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year

Unlike the global economy, India would not slow down and maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23, an RBI report said on Tuesday.
"We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," said the article on the state of the economy published in the March edition of the Reserve Bank bulletin.
The NSO&rsquo;s end-February data release indicates that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on domestic drivers, it said.
Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year, it said.
"Year-on-year growth rates do not reflect this pick-up of pace because by construction they are saddled with statistical base effects, and instead suggest a sequential slowing down through successive quarters of 2022-23 to an unsuspecting reader," said the article.
The article has been authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
The authors further said India&rsquo;s real GDP can go up from Rs 159.7 lakh crore in 2022-23 to Rs 170.9 lakh crore against the current projection of Rs 169.7 lakh crore in 2023-24.
"This is simple arithmetic; hardly a hurray at half-time. Also, unlike the global economy, India would not slow down &ndash; it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," the article said.
Currently available forecasts of India&rsquo;s real GDP growth for 2023-24, including those of the RBI, settle between 6 and 6.5 per cent.
The central bank said that views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years

 India's services sector activity hits 12-year high in Feb: PMI 

The seasonally adjusted S&amp;P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years

The Indian services sector expanded at the strongest rate in 12 years in February supported by favourable demand conditions and new business gains, a monthly survey said on Friday.
The seasonally adjusted S&amp;P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years.
For the 19th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
"The service sector more than regained the growth momentum lost in January, posting the sharpest expansion in output for 12 years as demand resilience and competitive pricing policies underpinned the joint-best upturn in sales over the same period," said Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.
On the prices front, there was substantial moderation in cost pressures as input prices increased at the slowest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years and output charge inflation softened to a 12-month low.
New orders placed with service providers rose further in February, with several firms suggesting that competitive pricing boosted sales, the survey said. Still, capacity pressures remained mild and jobs rose only marginally, it added.
"Despite the strong upturn in new business intakes, service providers noted only mild pressure on their capacities and, as a result, a large proportion of firms left payroll numbers unchanged," Lima said, adding that hiring growth was also dampened by a lack of confidence in the business environment.
The degree of optimism recorded in February was the lowest for seven months and below the historical trend as some companies doubted demand would remain this resilient. Others displayed concerns surrounding fierce competition for new work.
Meanwhile, the S&amp;P Global India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures combined services and manufacturing output -- rose from 57.5 in January to 59 in February, highlighting a sharp and stronger rate of expansion.

Moody's said economic momentum in a number of large emerging market countries, including India, has proved more resilient to last year's tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated

Moody's increases India's 2023 growth forecast to 5.5% from 4.8%

Moody's ups India's growth projection for 2023 to 5.5%

Moody's said economic momentum in a number of large emerging market countries, including India, has proved more resilient to last year's tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated

Moody's Investors Service has raised India's GDP growth forecast from 4.8 per cent in Novemember last year to 5.5%. This, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum.
It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year.
In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022. Moody's said economic momentum in a number of large emerging market countries, including India, has proved more resilient to last year's tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated.

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