Monsoon Forecast: India to witness normal monsoon despite El Nino threat

The Indian Meterological Department has retained its forecast of normal monsoon this year, even as El Nino threat looms over India. However, the IMD expects a below normal rainfall in June.

The IMD has predicted that the South-West monsoon is likely to be 96% of the long-term average. This comes with an error margin of +/-4%. Below normal rainfall is expected in north-west and west-central India, northern parts of the peninsular India and Himalayan foothills. While, most of areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east central India and many areas of northeast and extreme north India would have normal to above-normal rainfall.

"If rainfall distribution is equal that is an ideal scenario, but monsoon rainfall does not happen like that. If we get an equal distribution then agriculture will not be impacted much in India this year," IMD scientist D S Pai said.

While, the IMD said that it is highly possible for the El Nino to develop, there is no one-to-one relation between El Nino and monsoon. The monsoon is expected to make its onset over Kerala on 4th June.

El Nino occurs when the surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms in an unusual manner.