Highlights

  • Retail inflation in India surges to 8-year high of 7.79% in April
  • Rural inflation rose to 8.38% in April as compared to 7.66% in March

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India GDP: The slowdown starts to seep in firmly

With inflation sticking above the 6% mark for consumers for the next few months, economists are worried about a stagflation period.

India is set to report GDP numbers on Tuesday and data will present news on all three fronts 'Good, Bad and even a little Ugly'. Here is what the growth dynamics are looking like-:

The Good Part
India is likely grow over 8.6% for the year that ended March 31, this is a sharp rebound and also makes us the fastest growing economy globally. India's growth numbers have overtaken China's decisively over the past year.

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The Bad Part
The internals however will reflect a sharp slowdown and deep dive in the digits indicate a statistical jump vs a great demand revival. Q4 will mark the third straight quarter of decleration with the GDP likely to clock in at 3.4% for the January-March quarter.

Could This Get Ugly?
With inflation sticking above the 6% mark for consumers for the next few months, economists are worried about a stagflation period. Where due to 'cost-up' inflation pressure will continue to rise on RBI which will raise rates which in turn will leave prices unscathed but damage a dwindling demand.

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