US Fertility Rates Drop to Historic Lows in 2024

New York, Jul 24 (AP) - In 2024, the United States experienced a historic drop in fertility rates, reaching an unprecedented low of fewer than 1.6 children per woman, according to new federal data released on Thursday. This represents a stark contrast to previous decades when the U.S. was one of the few developed countries maintaining a replacement level fertility rate — around 2.1 children per woman. However, for nearly twenty years, this rate has been steadily declining as many women choose to delay having children or opt not to have them at all.

The latest figures align the U.S. with fertility trends seen in Western European countries, as reported by World Bank data. Concerned by this downward trend, the Trump administration undertook measures to counteract falling birth rates. Examples include issuing an executive order to broaden access and reduce costs for in vitro fertilization and promoting "baby bonuses" to incentivize childbirth.

However, Leslie Root, a fertility and population policy researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder, advises that there's no cause for alarm. “It’s part of a broader trend of delayed fertility. Despite this, the U.S. population continues to grow, with births outnumbering deaths,” she noted.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention unveiled these fertility rate statistics alongside updated birth data for 2024. In the early 1960s, the fertility rate hovered around 3.5, sharply decreasing to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom era. It climbed back to 2.1 in 2007 but subsequently declined, excluding a slight increase in 2014. According to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, the rate was 1.621 in 2023 and marginally declined to 1.599 in 2024.

Birth rates are generally weakening across most age groups, which is unlikely to shift in the near term, according to Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina. Factors such as delayed marriages and concerns over financial stability, health insurance, and resources impact decisions about raising children. “Uncertainty isn't conducive to having kids,” she emphasized, explaining why birth rates remain low.

Addressing birth-promoting initiatives by the Trump administration, Guzzo pointed out that they fail to address broader issues like parental leave and affordable childcare. “The measures they're enacting are largely symbolic and unlikely to make a meaningful impact for most Americans,” she asserted.

Recent data from the CDC showed a 1% rise in the number of births last year compared to the previous year — approximately 33,000 more births — bringing the annual total to just over 3.6 million. However, earlier provisional data had reflected an increase in birth rates for women in their late 20s and 30s while the new report showed declines for women in their 20s and early 30s, and no change for women in their late 30s.

CDC officials explained this discrepancy as a result of recalculations due to changes in U.S. Census population estimates, which affected the birth rate calculations. Leslie Root found this plausible, noting that increased immigration expanded the proportion of women of childbearing age, offsetting minor increases in births within these age groups.

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