Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Chances Analyzed Amid Continuing Speculation

Stavanger (Norway), Oct 9 (AP) - The anticipation around US President Donald Trump's quest for the Nobel Peace Prize has intensified the annual speculation about the potential laureate.

Nobel experts suggest that Trump's chances are slim, even with notable nominations and the foreign policy initiatives for which he has claimed personal credit.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee tends to focus on lasting peace, the fostering of international goodwill, and the subtle efforts of institutions that nurture these ideals.

Observers note that Trump's record might actually hinder his chances, pointing to his apparent aversion to multilateral organizations and his dismissal of global climate change issues.

Despite this, Trump has sought the Nobel spotlight throughout his tenure, recently telling UN delegates that "everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize." However, self-nomination is not possible.

Public campaigns and private deliberations - While Trump is a prominent figure on bookmakers' lists, it's uncertain if he is discussed by the five-member Nobel committee, appointed by Norway's parliament, during their closed sessions.

Trump has received several nominations from within the US and international politicians since 2018. US Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) nominated him for the 2025 award due to his role in the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations in 2020.

This year, nominations from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Pakistan's government came after the February 1 deadline.

Trump has frequently stated he "deserves" the prize, claiming to have "ended seven wars." Last week, he suggested he could end an eighth war with a peace plan for Gaza if Israel and Hamas agree.

“Nobody's ever done that,” he remarked to military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia. “Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They'll give it to someone who didn't accomplish much.”

Since then, Israel and Hamas have agreed to the initial phase of the Gaza peace plan, leading to a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

In Tel Aviv's hostages square, families and supporters chanted "Nobel prize to Trump."

Sustained efforts over short-term fixes - Nobel experts emphasize the committee values prolonged, cooperative efforts over quick diplomatic successes. Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow, noted that Trump's actions haven't demonstrated long-term viability.

“There’s a difference between halting fighting temporarily and addressing underlying conflict causes,” Zenou stated.

He also mentioned Trump's climate change skepticism as a significant disconnect with the Nobel committee's view of it as a pressing global peace issue.

“Awarding him the prestigious prize seems unlikely given his views,” Zenou added. “Previous recipients embodied cooperation and reconciliation, which aren’t typically associated with Trump.”

Avoiding undue political influence - The committee faced backlash in 2009 for awarding then-President Obama the Nobel Prize early in his first term, with critics arguing he hadn't achieved enough at that point.

Trump's public declarations about winning might also deter the committee, which seeks to avoid perceptions of yielding to political pressure, according to Nina Græger, director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

Græger describes Trump's prospects as “a long shot.” “His rhetoric doesn’t align with peaceful values,” she noted.

The Nobel announcements began with the prize in medicine on Monday, followed by physics on Tuesday, and chemistry on Wednesday. The literature prize is set for Thursday, and the economics prize will be announced on Monday. (AP)

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