London, Jul 4 (The Conversation) — U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, an idea that surfaces once more since previous attempts failed. This proposal aims to halt violence for two months, following a short-lived truce that ended in March. While a similar plan was considered in May, Hamas perceived it as a temporary pause that could allow Israel to resume warfare instead of securing lasting peace.
As Gaza's situation deteriorates daily, hopes are pinned on whether this attempt will succeed. Qatari mediators suggest that over these 60 days, Hamas would release ten living hostages and the bodies of 18 deceased hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. If a long-term settlement is achieved, another 22 hostages will be freed. Crucially, this period could see negotiations to end hostilities permanently and establish a governance roadmap for post-war Gaza.
This plan mirrors a three-phase ceasefire from earlier in the year, which dissolved after initial hostage exchanges failed to move forward. Since then, peace talks have repeatedly stalled.
For Hamas, a long-term truce implies ending the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Conversely, Israel seeks to dismantle Hamas' military presence and oust senior leaders. Yet, there are indications that this ceasefire attempt might succeed where others failed. A significant factor is the aftermath of the "12-day war" between Israel and Iran, a conflict which Israel claims degraded Iran's nuclear program, thereby offering Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu some political leeway to support a ceasefire despite pressure from hardliners in his coalition.
During this conflict, the U.S. controversially assisted Israel in military strikes on Iran’s nuclear targets, rekindling Trump's interest in the Middle East. Previously, Trump had shown little motivation to push for negotiations beyond phase one of the January ceasefire deal. However, after assisting Israel against Iran, Trump now wields considerable influence which he may choose to use as Netanyahu visits Washington next week.
Both leaders view Iran's apparent weakness as a chance to extend the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Netanyahu desires a U.S.-backed deal with Saudi Arabia, and there are whispers of another agreement with Syria. However, these visions cannot materialize while Gaza remains at war.
Nonetheless, traditional obstacles remain, and the proposal's terms may lack guarantees preventing Israel from reigniting hostilities post-ceasefire. New challenges have arisen, notably Hamas’ demand to revert to traditional humanitarian aid methods or replace the widely criticized Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
Since its inception on May 26, the GHF, with four distribution centers in militarized zones, has seen over 400 deaths due to conflict-related aid access issues, prompting calls from over 170 NGOs to shut it down. Furthermore, Israel's military reach in Gaza has expanded, with recent evacuation orders covering over 80% of the region and affecting northern areas and Gaza City.
Israeli officials frame these measures as pressure on Hamas to accept a truce, though Netanyahu has openly discussed potentially occupying Gaza long-term, maintaining "full security control" even post-war. Any temporary ceasefire thus faces a tortuous path to becoming permanent or resulting in an agreeable "day-after" plan.
Despite the formidable challenges, there's a unique opportunity for progress. Trump has a newfound resolve toward achieving a ceasefire, and Netanyahu eyes a rare political chance to enter an agreement, aiming to secure hostages. Meanwhile, Hamas, weakened by Israel’s relentless military actions and growing discontent among Gazans, who hunger for peace, may find it beneficial to seek a resolution.
The imperative to conclude the Gaza conflict is overwhelming; the decisive factor remains whether both Israel and Hamas possess the resolve to seize it.
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