Sydney, Oct 23 (The Conversation) Sanae Takaichi has made history by becoming Japan's first female prime minister, but her leadership is not necessarily a triumph for feminist or progressive agendas. Despite her groundbreaking role, Takaichi is a staunch right-wing ultraconservative whose policies emerge from traditional perspectives on women's roles, as well as Japanese history and broader society.
Her stance aligns with the anti-immigrant positions of conservatives and right-wing populists worldwide, as she upholds "national identity and traditional values" while focusing on strong economic growth. However, restrictive immigration policies could exacerbate Japan’s economic challenges by causing labor shortages and inflation.
Japan faces a demographic crisis, exemplified by a population decline over the past 16 years, largely due to falling birth rates. Should Takaichi not adopt a more pragmatic stance on immigration, her leadership might witness economic stagnation and decline.
How did Takaichi become prime minister? Takaichi ascended to the prime ministership after being elected as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) earlier this month. Her rise was initially stalled when the Komeito party, a junior coalition partner, left the governing coalition over a political funding scandal involving the LDP.
The LDP holds minority status in Japan's Diet, requiring coalition partners to govern. Following extensive negotiations, the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, agreed to support Takaichi and her LDP-led administration. However, the coalition is still two seats short of a majority in the lower house, posing challenges for Takaichi's government.
Japan's demographic crisis Japan's population peaked at around 128 million in 2008 and has steadily declined to about 124 million today. Last year, the fertility rate reached a record low of 1.15. If current trends persist, projections suggest Japan's population will drop to 87 million by 2070 and 63 million by 2100, with only half of that population being of working age.
This issue extends beyond mere population decline; it's also about an ageing population with rising pension and healthcare costs. Numerous professions, including teaching, healthcare, and caregiving, are currently experiencing severe labor shortages.
Immigration as a political lightning rod While past governments have acknowledged the declining population issue, efforts to address it have been minimal. Various initiatives aimed at bringing foreign residents or workers into Japan have had modest success due to insufficient integration programs.
Japan's foreign-born population hit a record 3.6 million this year, about 3% of the total population, a figure lower than many other developed nations. While the increase in foreigners has somewhat offset the decline in births among Japanese, Japan’s tourism industry has also flourished, with nearly 37 million visitors last year.
This rising foreign presence has fueled the growth of anti-immigrant sentiments and political movements, including the far-right Sanseito party. Consequently, the LDP has shifted rightward to retain voter support against such populist parties. This shift partially explains why Takaichi's nationalist rhetoric resonates with the aging conservative base.
Takaichi supports foreign workers in fields with labor shortages but under stringent criteria like language proficiency and oversight, opposing mass settlement or political rights for immigrants. Her policies, yet to be fully detailed, depict foreigners as a threat to national cohesion needing strict control.
Pro-natalist policies pushed instead Globally, older populations often fall prey to anti-immigrant scare tactics by right-wing conservatives. Japan is no different, where politicians like Takaichi leverage electoral gains from portraying immigration and foreigners as threats to social harmony and cultural heritage.
As a result, countries with aging populations, which most need immigration, tend to resist it. Many conservatives, including those in Japan, promote pro-natalist policies encouraging women of the dominant ethnicity to have more children, aiming to boost populations while maintaining cultural and racial homogeneity.
Viktor Orban's government in Hungary serves as an example, offering significant financial incentives for children, impacting about 5% of GDP. Yet, despite a rise above the European birth average in 2023, Hungary’s birth rate has since declined. Conservatives push Japan to adopt similar pro-natalist approaches instead of relying on immigration.
Under Takaichi's leadership, Japan is unlikely to advance women’s independence or status, significantly increase birth rates, or welcome more immigrants. Consequently, Japan’s demographic crisis is set to persist, and likely worsen, in the foreseeable future.
(Only the headline of this report may have been reworked by Editorji; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
