Birmingham, Sep 25 (The Conversation) Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Moscow is ramping up pressure on Kyiv’s western allies. There have been Russian drone incursions into Poland on September 10 and Romania shortly after. On September 19, three Russian fighter jets breached Estonian airspace.
Speculation suggests that drones responsible for the temporary closure of airports in Copenhagen and Oslo may also be linked to the Kremlin. While these actions could suggest a deliberate escalation strategy by Russian President Vladimir Putin, they likely serve to mask the crumbling narrative of inevitable Russian victory.
The summer offensive has been disastrously costly in terms of human lives, with Russian combat deaths nearing 220,000, yet bringing minimal territorial gains. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Russia has illegally occupied about 70,000 sq km, nearly tripling its control. However, the most recent offensive only yielded less than 2,000 sq km.
As of September 1, 2022, Russia held just over 20% of Ukrainian territory, which decreased to 19% three years later (up from 18.5% at the beginning of 2025). The failure to secure any solid gains after a successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbas around Pokrovsk in August highlights the hollowness of Russia’s claims to inevitable victory.
Despite this, Ukraine finds little comfort in Russia's struggles. Moscow retains the capacity for relentless attacks, exposing weak points in Ukraine’s air defense and endangering critical infrastructure. However, the response from western allies has been sluggish, with unclear red lines from NATO and the EU.
While NATO quickly initiated Eastern Sentry in response to the drone incursion into Poland, its deterrent effect seems limited. Russia continued incursions into Estonia and conducted undeclared flights in neutral airspace close to Poland and Germany. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk threatened to "shoot down flying objects when they violate our territory and fly over Poland," but also warned against actions that could provoke a heightened conflict phase.
Across the Atlantic, US President Donald Trump has been reticent regarding escalations on NATO’s eastern flank. Commenting on the drone incursion into Poland, he speculated it could have been a mistake but eventually pledged to defend NATO allies if Russia attacked. Though an improvement from previous threats to NATO solidarity, it remains a weak buffer against full Russian escalation.
No decisive US actions to end the Ukrainian war appear in sight. Trump’s deadline for Putin to commence direct peace talks with Ukraine has passed without event. Europe now scrambles to fill the void left by US support retrenchment.
Preparedness in Europe lags, with defense budgets of the EU’s top five military spenders—France, Germany, Poland, Italy, and the Netherlands—combined, lacking compared to US annual military expenditure. Europe also faces complications in its defense-industrial base, delaying initiatives like the Security Action for Europe program. National differences, including between France and Germany, threaten efforts such as the Future Combat Air System.
To date, muddling through has sufficed for Ukraine's allies, partly because Kyiv continues to withstand the Russian offensive by harnessing western resources and evolving its own defense capabilities. Meanwhile, Trump's ambiguous commitment keeps NATO as a collective defense alliance viable enough to deter Putin's ambitions.
As Putin tests boundaries without challenge, he might venture further into uncertain territories, foreboding unpredictable consequences. The west's interim solutions are adequate for now, but robust responses are needed as Putin's challenges grow in frequency and severity. The European coalition must concentrate on the present and strengthen its readiness levels.
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