Donetsk Region, Ukraine, Aug 15 (AP) - In the lead-up to an anticipated summit between the leaders of Russia and the United States in Alaska, Russian forces have breached Ukrainian frontlines in Donetsk, Ukraine's industrial stronghold.
Analysts suggest that while Russia's advances this week represent only a limited success, they could signal a precarious situation for Ukraine. Russia still needs to consolidate these gains for any significant breakthrough. The current developments pose a potentially dangerous moment for Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to use this military progress to influence US President Donald Trump. Mykola Bieleskov, a senior analyst at the CBA Initiatives Centre, mentioned that Putin might persuade Trump by arguing that the ongoing 3 1/2-year conflict is deteriorating for Kyiv.
“The key risk for Ukraine is that the Kremlin will aim to transform local battlefield gains into strategic advantages during negotiations,” said Bieleskov.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Tuesday that Putin desires Ukraine to retreat from the remaining 30% of Donetsk under Kyiv's control as part of a ceasefire agreement, a notion rejected by Zelenskyy.
Despite years of conflict, Russia has yet to fully control the Donetsk region, which it unlawfully annexed in 2022 along with the Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Russian Forces Infiltration
Russian forces have been focusing on the city of Pokrovsk, a pivotal highway and rail junction currently with partial encirclement. However, they are probing for weaknesses north of the city, reports the battlefield analysis site DeepState. A gap was discovered east of the coal-mining town of Dobropillia, resulting in a 10 km advance.
Zelenskyy highlighted that this situation plays a significant role ahead of Putin's summit with Trump, particularly in portraying an image of Russia advancing and Ukraine retreating in the American media.
Despite Ukrainian forces repelling these attempts, the situation around Dobropillia remains unstable, with analysts describing it as a localized crisis. If the breach isn't neutralized, there could be further escalation.
Challenges in Defense
The breach has been anticipated for months, according to a drone pilot in the area who spoke anonymously. The pilot cited Ukraine's lack of infantry as a contributing factor, influenced not only by stagnated mobilization but also by poor management.
“We are sacrificing territories and lives to amend mistakes, and we can only afford to fix errors as long as we have land remaining,” the pilot stated.
To counter these gaps, Ukrainian forces are leveraging first-person-view drones armed with explosives to target foes. However, the small size of Russian forces makes this tactic challenging.
Despite technological parity on both sides, Russia's superior manpower provides an edge, according to analyst Bieleskov. He suggests that Moscow's forces frequently involve individuals on one-way missions without regard for life.
Addressing the infiltrations and ensuing armored assaults requires varied defenses and leadership structures, which have yet to materialize on Ukraine's side. Ukraine has deployed additional seasoned troops to affected areas, such as the Azov brigade. Nevertheless, DeepState maps indicate no favorable changes for Ukraine.
Implications for Supply Routes, and Summit
Military analyst Michael Kofman advises caution in determining whether the front lines are collapsing. Russia's aim is to extend the breach into a corridor to bolster ground forces, said Bieleskov. By doing so, they can avoid direct assaults on fortified urban centers, opting to navigate open terrain where troop shortages and large populations render defense tough for Ukraine.
This strategy could sidestep the need for Russia to invade Kostiantynivka, a heavily damaged city on the brink of capture. Its fall would complicate the defense of larger cities such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, confronting the Ukrainian military with significant challenges.
Commander Serhii Filimonov of the “Da Vinci Wolves” battalion noted the dire situation if roads are severed. Maintaining supply logistics for numerous Ukrainian troops would prove “extremely difficult,” he warned.
Critiquing the summit, Filimonov denounced the ongoing Russian violence and questioned the global community's approach. “And then the civilized world comes to them and says, 'Fine, let's make a deal.' That's not how it should work,” he stated. (AP) SCY SCY
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