Jerusalem, Aug 7 (AP) — Israel has effectively subdued its regional adversaries, yet the challenge of repatriating all hostages from the Gaza Strip remains unsolved. Although Hamas has suffered substantial military losses, insurgent attacks persist. Gaza lies in destruction, edging towards famine, and long-standing ceasefire negotiations appear stalled.
Both Israel and Hamas hold distinct visions for resolving the conflict, but mediators from two US administrations, along with Egypt and Qatar, struggle to reconcile these differences. There remain scenarios where the conflict threatens to drag on indefinitely, bringing unimaginable suffering to Gaza's 2 million inhabitants, as well as the Israeli hostages and their families.
Full reoccupation of Gaza: Media reports in Israel suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may soon order a comprehensive reoccupation of Gaza, a first since Israel withdrew its forces two decades ago. Such a move would send ground troops into areas that still offer refuge to much of the region's population, including displacement camps like Muwasi. This could lead to significant Palestinian casualties and displacement, endangering about 20 remaining hostages. For Israel, reoccupation would necessitate compliance with international law, obliging it to ensure the safety and basic needs of the populace.
This potential move faces strong criticism globally and could further alienate Israel and the US. Even within Israel, there's dissent among those worried about hostages and former security officials wary of potential quagmires. Nonetheless, reoccupation has garnered strong support from Netanyahu's far-right coalition, which advocates for reclaiming Gaza, relocating much of its population, and reinstating Jewish settlements.
A ceasefire mirroring international demands: Hamas proposes releasing all hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a durable ceasefire. These terms align with demands set by the Biden administration and the UN Security Council. Such demands were also foundational in a ceasefire with the Trump administration, which resulted in the release of some hostages and a subsequent surge of humanitarian aid.
The parties were intended to use this truce to negotiate a longer ceasefire, but Israel ended it in March, calling for another temporary pause and further releases. Israel's apprehension is that withdrawal could allow Hamas to militarily recover, potentially leading to further conflict.
Negotiating such terms risks destabilizing Netanyahu's political coalition, potentially ending his long tenure and exposing him to legal issues related to past allegations and security failures in 2023.
Ceasefire under Israeli terms: Netanyahu states the war will end when all hostages return and Hamas is disarmed or exiled. Even then, Israel plans to encourage "voluntary emigration" of much of Gaza's population, a stance criticized as forced expulsion by the Palestinians and the wider international community.
Netanyahu is open to a temporary truce involving partial hostage releases and Israeli withdrawal in exchange for greater humanitarian aid and prisoner exchanges, ultimately requiring Hamas’ disarmament. Although Hamas expresses willingness to pass power to other Palestinians, it insists on retaining arms while Israel occupies land desired for a future Palestinian state.
Further military escalation could bring additional concessions. Hamas has already lost considerable ground due to the weakening of key allies like Iran and Hezbollah.
A perpetual conflict: The possibility exists that the conflict remains in a constant state. Israel might sustain its tactical strikes in Gaza, which, although officially targeting militants, often result in civilian deaths. Concurrently, Hamas could maintain low-level assaults. Steps to increase food supplies could potentially alleviate the impending famine. Hostages may endure long-term captivity.
Upcoming Israeli elections, possibly in or before October 2026, may yield a new leadership dynamic, even if Netanyahu sustains his ruling coalition.
The eventual scenario heavily leans on US President Donald Trump, who has been a pivotal supporter of Israel. Despite expressing a desire to end hostilities and secure the remaining hostages' release, he has not applied substantial public pressure on Israel to date. When queried regarding the reoccupation of Gaza, Trump stated, “It's going to be pretty much up to Israel.” (AP)
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