Washington, Oct 16 (AP) The planet is forecasted to see an increase in nearly two months of dangerously hot days annually by the close of the century, with smaller, economically challenged nations facing harsher impacts than the world's principal carbon emitters, according to a study released Thursday. However, the efforts initiated a decade ago through the Paris climate agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions have made a notable difference. Without these efforts, the Earth was on a trajectory to experience an additional 114 superhot days annually, the same study revealed.
The team of climate scientists from World Weather Attribution and the US-based Climate Central used computer simulations to demonstrate the influence of the landmark accord, particularly in how it affects heat waves—one of the most significant climate impacts on human populations.
The report—currently unreviewed by peers but utilizing accepted climate attribution methods—estimated the number of exceedingly hot days in 2015, compared this with present-day figures, and projected future scenarios for over 200 countries.
One scenario assumes countries honor their pledges to reduce emissions, resulting in global warming of 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, which would add 57 superhot days annually. The other scenario projected a rise of 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 F), which was the path before the Paris agreement, doubling the number of additional hot days.
Pain and Suffering from Climate Change
“There will be pain and suffering because of climate change,” remarked Kristina Dahl, Climate Central Vice President for Science and co-author of the report. “But the distinction between 4 degrees C of warming and 2.6 degrees C of warming represents the last decade’s efforts and people's ambitions. For me, that is encouraging.” The study defined superhot days as those warmer than 90% of corresponding dates from 1991 to 2020. Since 2015, the world has already seen an average of 11 additional superhot days annually, the report indicated.
“Such heat drives people to the emergency room, and it is deadly,” Dahl stated. The report did not specify the number of individuals affected by the increased dangerously hot days, but co-author Friederike Otto from Imperial College London said, "it will definitely be tens of thousands or even millions." Thousands already perish annually in heat waves, she noted.
Imagining Worse Heat Waves
Thursday's study found that the severe southern Europe heat wave in 2023 is now 70% more likely and 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 F) warmer than it would have been a decade ago. If climate counteractions do not intensify, a similar end-century heat wave could be 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 F) hotter, projected the report.
A heat wave similar to last year's in the Southwestern US and Mexico might rise by 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.1 F) by the century's end under the existing carbon pollution trajectory, according to the findings.
Other researchers also report hundreds of thousands of deaths from recent heat waves attributed predominantly to human-induced climate change, said Kristie Ebi, a public health and climate scientist at the University of Washington, though not involved in Thursday's publication.
Heat Inequality Across Nations
The study highlighted the inequitable burden of climate change effects, even under less severe scenarios, showing stark disparities by country by the century's end.
The ten nations expected to encounter the greatest rise in hazardous heat days are mostly small, ocean-dependent states like the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Panama, and Indonesia. Panama, for instance, anticipates 149 additional superhot days.
Collectively, these top ten countries have contributed just 1% of current atmospheric greenhouse gases but are set to face nearly 13% of the extra superhot days. Conversely, the leading carbon emitters, the United States, China, and India, are slated for 23 to 30 more superhot days, despite being responsible for 42% of global carbon dioxide, receiving less than 1% of the added heat days.
“This report effectively and tangibly illustrates what has been argued for decades. Global warming impacts will disproportionately affect developing nations with historically minimal greenhouse gas emissions,” commented Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria, who was not part of the research team.
He warned that “global warming continues to create further division between wealthy and impoverished nations, potentially leading to geopolitical instability.” In the US, Hawaii and Florida are predicted to see the most significant rise in superhot days by century's end, whereas Idaho will experience the least increase, according to the report.
Despite the promising reduction from a pre-Paris 4-degree warming trajectory, Potsdam Climate Institute Director Johan Rockstrom, unaffiliated with the study, cautioned that the prevailing path "still forecasts a disastrous future for billions globally.” (AP) SCY SCY
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