With the death of Pope Francis, announced by the Vatican on Monday, Roman Catholics worldwide are poised to speculate on which of the red-robed cardinals will succeed him. Given Pope Francis’s distinctive approach to appointing cardinals during his papacy, there is anticipation that the next pope could also be non-European, and perhaps, like Francis, progressive in his stance, often opposing the Church's conservative wing.
The election process that follows a papal death is highly confidential. It will culminate with white smoke emerging from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, signifying the selection of a new pope. Cardinals—key collaborators of the pope, managing crucial Vatican departments and dioceses globally—convene in a secret conclave to elect a new leader for the Roman Catholic Church's nearly 1.4 billion members if they are younger than 80.
This intricate voting process will indicate whether the current cardinals, many appointed by Pope Francis, favor his liberal social values and reformist agenda or if they feel the Church needs a period of consolidation.
The cardinals will set the start date for the conclave upon their arrival in Rome. Appointed exclusively by a pope, cardinals carry his legacy, as they are influential senior clerics and potential pontiff candidates. As of April 21, the Vatican reported 252 cardinals, 135 of whom are eligible electors.
Of these, 108 were appointed by Francis, 22 by Benedict, and five by John Paul II. Cardinals are formally instated in ceremonies called consistories, where they receive their ring, a red biretta, and pledge to the pope, signifying their loyalty through the color red, which represents their willingness to sacrifice for the Church.
Pope Francis convened 10 consistories, each increasing the likelihood of a non-European successor by bolstering the representation of the Church in regions where Catholicism is either a growing minority or where it is expanding more rapidly than in the largely stagnant Western world.
Historically, most cardinals were Italian, except during the 1309-1377 Avignon Papacy when many were French.
The internationalization of the College of Cardinals was initiated by Paul VI (1963-1978) and greatly expanded by John Paul II (1978-2005), the first non-Italian pope in 455 years.
While Europe still holds the largest share of cardinal electors at about 39%, this has decreased from 52% in 2013 when Francis, the first Latin American pope, was elected. The second largest bloc of electors now hails from Asia and Oceania, comprising about 20%.
A SHIFT FROM EURO-CENTRICITY
Francis appointed more than 20 cardinals from countries that had never had representation, focusing on developing nations like Rwanda, Cape Verde, Tonga, Myanmar, Mongolia, and South Sudan, as well as places with few Catholics like Sweden.
He strategically bypassed certain European vacancies, such as in major cities, to emphasize that the Church should not be overly Euro-centric. In the United States, he overlooked dioceses like Los Angeles and San Francisco, seemingly due to their conservative leadership.
Robert McElroy, the Archbishop of Washington as of March, is known as a progressive and vocal supporter of Francis's priorities, including environmental protection and a more inclusive approach to LGBTQ Catholics.
A PAPACY'S INFLUENCE
A pope’s appointments can increase the chances of a successor with similar church and societal perspectives. However, the cardinals might choose someone with differing theological views if they believe that person is better suited to the Church's internal dynamics or the historical context of the election.
Pope Benedict succeeded John Paul II partly due to his long association with him and the desire for continuity. However, after the "Vatileaks" scandal revealed administrative issues under Italian oversight, many cardinals felt an "outsider" was needed and chose Argentina’s Jorge Mario Bergoglio—the first non-European pope in nearly 1,300 years.
Older cardinals, despite being ineligible for the conclave, can influence the decision. They attend General Congregations before the conclave, where the qualities needed in the new pope are discussed.
