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India's Q4 FY24 GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.1%-6.7%, down from 8% in previous quarters. Overall FY24 growth is estimated between 7.6%-7.8%

GDP growth for Q4FY24 might moderate; weakest growth in the fiscal year: Report

<h2>India's Q4 FY24 GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.1%-6.7%, down from 8% in previous quarters. Overall FY24 growth is estimated between 7.6%-7.8%</h2>

India's economy likely grew at its slowest pace in FY24 in the Jan-March quarter, showed a Reuters poll of economists. As per the report, this slowdown was due to weak demand and economists who participated in the polls said that the possibility of growth significantly surpassing their forecasts was low.
Meanwhile, as per PTI, the GDP for the quarter is anticipated to have grown between 6.1% and 6.7%, a decline from the over 8% growth rate observed in the previous three quarters. Similarly, Reuters poll has also predicted that India's economy likely slowed to an annual 6.7% in January-March. The National Statistical Office estimates the GDP growth to be 5.9% in the January-March quarter.
For the overall fiscal year, economists predict the growth to be in the range of 7.6% to 7.8%. However, government's chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said earlier this month that there is a high possibility of India&rsquo;s economic growth touching 8% in FY24
<h3>GDP Estimate</h3>
As per Reuters, growth likely slowed due to moderation in both the manufacturing and services sectors. They also cited a muted contribution from agriculture. PTI quoted Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank and said that the trade and hotel industries performed well in the fourth quarter.
&ldquo;Manufacturing activities have been strong, and construction-related and investment segments should be doing better, but the agriculture sector might lag and even see contraction during the quarter. We are expecting a 6.1% GDP growth for the fourth quarter, which should result in an annual GDP growth close to 7.6%,&rdquo; Bhardwaj stated.
About the Gross Value Added, Reuters poll anticipates a slow down to 6.2% while Upasna Bhardwaj told PTI that it might go down to 5.7%.
The Indian economy reported growth rates of 8.2% in the June quarter, 8.1% in the September quarter, and 8.4% in the December quarter of 2023-24. The government is set to release the GDP figures for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year on May 31.
Also Watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/icra-forecasts-india-s-gdp-growth-to-moderate-to-6-7-in-q4-fy2024-1716294032101">ICRA forecasts India&rsquo;s GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in Q4 FY2024</a>

India's Q1 FY24 GDP growth to surpasses RBI's estimate at 8.3%, driven by manufacturing & services. Corporate earnings up 30%, inflation resurges due to global disruptions. IMF raises 2023 growth forecast to 6.1%: SBI Ecowrap

India's GDP to surge in Q1 FY24: 8.3% growth estimated

India's Q1 FY24 GDP growth to surpasses RBI's estimate at 8.3%, driven by manufacturing &amp; services. Corporate earnings up 30%, inflation resurges due to global disruptions. IMF raises 2023 growth forecast to 6.1%: SBI Ecowrap

India's economy is set to exceed growth expectations, with the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) projected to reach 8.3%, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) estimate of 7.8-8.0%.
This positive outlook was revealed in the latest report from the State Bank of India's Economic Research Department, SBI Ecowrap. The report also indicated that the overall growth for the entire fiscal year will outpace a predicted 6.5%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had earlier forecasted India's growth at 6.1% for the year 2023. However, the recent SBI report highlights the country's resilient economic activity in the April-June quarter of FY24, predominantly propelled by growth in the services sector.
The report attributed the favorable performance to sustained manufacturing growth, reflected in key indicators such as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), automobile sales, and PMI data.
Furthermore, strong agricultural sales and consistent power supply contributed to the robust economic momentum. The service sector also exhibited encouraging trends, with sustained passenger traffic and increased air cargo movement.
Indian corporations have also demonstrated commendable performance in the first quarter of FY24. Despite challenges, top-line growth averaged around 3%, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and profit after tax (PAT) registered over 30% growth compared to the same period last fiscal year.
Notable sectors driving this growth include banking, automotive, information technology (IT), pharmaceuticals, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and refineries.
The report acknowledged the re-emergence of inflationary pressures, primarily attributed to global disruptions and domestic factors. It emphasized the need for heightened vigilance by the government and the RBI in light of evolving inflation trends.
Although retail inflation is projected to remain high for the near future, concerns about food inflation are expected to abate. Disruptions on the global front, particularly in key food commodities such as cereals, pulses, and vegetables, have been significant contributors to India's inflationary pressures.

The government has kept the GDP estimate unchanged at 7% for the full financial year 2022-23

Explained: India's GDP grows at 4.4 pc in Q3

The government has kept the GDP estimate unchanged at 7% for the full financial year 2022-23

India's economic growth slowed down to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2022-23 mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector.
In October-December 2021, the economy grew by 11.2 per cent and by 6.3 per cent in the July-September 2022 quarter, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
The NSO in its second advance estimate of national accounts pegged the country's growth at 7 per cent for 2022-23.
Besides, the NSO revised the GDP growth for 2021-22 to 9.1 per cent against the earlier estimate of 8.7 per cent.

GDP growth for the October to December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year came in at 4.4% more or less in line with estimates.

Q3 FY23 GDP: Oct-Dec GDP growth at 4.4%

Q3 FY23 GDP OCT-DEC GDP GROWTH AT 4.4% Q3 GDP GROWTH AT 4.4% VS 6.3% IN Q2 GOVT&rsquo;S GDP ESTIMATE FOR 2022-23 AT 7%

GDP growth for the October to December quarter (Q3) came in at 4.4% versus 6.3% for the quarter ending september.&nbsp;

GDP growth for the October to December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year came in at 4.4% more or less in line with estimates. This compares to 6.3% GDP for the quarter ending September 2022.&nbsp; On a sectoral basis, for Q3, agriculture growth and mining growth came in at 3.7% each. Manufacturing saw a contraction of 1.1%. Meanwhile, construction sector grew a strong 8.4% as well as trade, hotel, transport, communications saw a 9.7% growth. Real estate and financial sector growth came in at 5.8%. The government has kept the GDP estimate unchanged at 7% for the full financial year 2022-23.&nbsp; However, the GDP growth for the previous financial year FY22 has been revised upwards to 9.1% as against an earlier estimate of 8.7%.&nbsp;

Economists expect the GDP growth for Q3FY23 to slow to 4.6%. This, largely due to base effects normalising which are pulling down the numbers. 

October-December GDP expected to slow to 4.6%

Economists expect the GDP growth for Q3FY23 to slow to 4.6%. This, largely due to base effects normalising which are pulling down the numbers.&nbsp;

The GDP numbers for the October to December quarter will be released on Tuesday, 28th February.&nbsp; As per a poll by Reuters, GDP growth is likely to have slowed down to 4.6% in the third quarter of the current financial year.&nbsp; SBI research also pegs the GDP for Q3 at 4.6% which is higher than the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 4.4%. The SBI report also says that revisions are likely in the GDP data for FY20, FY21 and FY22. "There are base effects that are normalizing and pulling down the annual numbers. The support from agriculture might be lower and also manufacturing could be a drag," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.&nbsp; In Q1 (April to June) GDP came in at 13.5%, that was largely due to the pandemic related statistical distortions. The following quarter ending September 2022, GDP came in at 6.3%.&nbsp;

Finance Ministry's January economic review says that India is on track to achieve 7% growth in FY23. However, the report also says that the 6.5% growth forcast for FY24 has more downside than upside risks. 

India on track to achieve 7% GDP Growth in FY23: Finance Ministry 

Finance Ministry's January economic review says that India is on track to achieve 7% growth in FY23. However, the report also says that the 6.5% growth forcast for FY24 has more downside than upside risks.&nbsp;

The finance ministry has released its January economic review report outlining the current state of the economy and the road ahead.&nbsp;&nbsp; On GDP Growth, the report says that India is on track to achieve 7% GDP growth in 2022-23. Manufacturing is growing steadily and overall demand conditions are conducive to support economic activity. However, the report also cautions that the 6.5% growth forecast for FY24 has more downside than upside risks.&nbsp; On Inflation: Despite a sticky core inflation currently, the inflation risks are likely to be lower for India in FY24. While there have been some instances of inflation stiffening above the downward trending like, the report points out that "Inflation decline does not often happen in a straight line as prices are usually downward sticky." But that, this situation could prolong if global commodity prices do not head towards the pre-pandemic levels.&nbsp; Another word of caution is basis predictions of the return of El-Nino conditions. If that happens, monsoon rains could be deficient which may lead to lower agriculture output and higher prices.&nbsp;&nbsp; Exports: There is a likelihood of exports showing a tepid growth with major export markets of India likely to decline sharply.&nbsp; External deficits may be a lesser challenge in FY24 than in FY23, but close attention to trends in international trade and capital flows will be warranted.
Global outlook: Global inflation likely to moderate gradually, but will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. However, inflation risks remain as geopolitical conflicts and the resulting supply disruptions that contributed to higher inflation in 2022 are still present.&nbsp;&nbsp;
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RBI lowers GDP growth projection, hikes repo rate

&nbsp;RBI has&nbsp;maintained policy stance at &lsquo;withdrawal of accommodation&rsquo;

Making it the 5th tiime in a row, the RBI&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday raised the repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25 per cent with immediate effect, making loans expensive. The policy rate is now at the highest level since August 2018. The RBI has maintained policy stance at &lsquo;withdrawal of accommodation&rsquo;.
The RBI lowered FY23 GDP growth forecast to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent earlier. The central bank has, however, retained its retail inflation projection for FY23 at 6.7 per cent.&nbsp;
This is the fifth consecutive repo rate hike this year. With this latest hike, the RBI&rsquo;s rate-setting panel has raised the key policy rate by 225 basis points this year in total, in order to control inflation. The repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI lends to the commercial bank.

GST latest news: The Government of India has released the entire amount of GST compensation payable to States up to 31st May, 2022 by releasing an amount of Rs.86,912 crores. This decision was taken to assist the States in managing their resources and ensuring that their programmes especially the expenditure on capital is carried out successfully during the financial year. This decision has been taken despite the fact that only about Rs.25,000 crore is available in the GST Compensation Fund. The balance is being released by the Centre from its own resources pending collection of Cess.

Centre releases entire GST compensation due to states

Modi Govt has released the entire amount of GST compensation payable to States up to 31st May, 2022 by releasing an amount of Rs.86,912 crores. 

Centre clears GST bill for states, all dues till May 31

Balance released by the Centre from its own resources pending collection of Cess.

GST&nbsp;latest news:&nbsp;The Modi&nbsp;Govt has&nbsp;released the entire amount of GST compensation payable to States up to 31st May, 2022 by releasing an amount of Rs.86,912 crores.&nbsp; In a statement issued the govt said that the money has been released despite the fact that only about Rs.25,000 crore is available in the GST Compensation Fund. The excess Rs 60,000 cr is being&nbsp;released by the Centre from its own resources pending collection of Cess.
Also read/watch| <a title="GDP hits a year low in March quarter; FY22 growth at 8.7%" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/gdp-for-jan-march-at-1-year-low-4-1-fy-22-gdp-at-8-7-inline-with-estimates-1653998875226">GDP hits a year low in March quarter; FY22 growth at 8.7%</a> GST was introduced in the country w.e.f. 1 July, 2017 and the states were assured for compensation for loss of any revenue arising on account of implementation of GST as per the provisions of the GST (Compensation to States) Act, 2017 for a period of five years. 2022 marks the end of the said 5 year tenure of compensation to states by the central govt.&nbsp;

FM Nirmala Sitharaman said the country's economic growth is expected at 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, on the back of a sharp rebound in the economy.

Union Budget 2022: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says FY22 GDP growth estimated at 9.2%

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says the country's economic growth is expected at 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, on the back of a sharp rebound in the economy.

Budget 2022: Finance Minister says FY22 GDP growth estimated at 9.2%

She also said virtuous cycle of investment is expected to revive on account of capex (capital expenditure) and crowd in private investment.

Union Budget 2022: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the country's economic growth is expected at 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, on the back of a sharp rebound in the economy.
She also said virtuous cycle of investment is expected to revive on account of capex (capital expenditure) and crowd in private investment.
"Government focus since 2014 is on poor and marginalised. The government strives to provide necessary ecosystem to middle class," Sitharaman said in her <a href="https://www.editorji.com/liveblog/budget/budget-2022-live-updates-fm-nirmala-sitharaman-to-present-budget-at-11-am-today-26" target="_blank">Budget speech 2022-23</a>.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/budget-2022-400-new-generation-vande-bharat-trains-to-be-brought-in-next-3-years-1643697911207" target="_blank">Budget 2022: 400 new generation Vande Bharat trains to be brought in next 3 years</a> &nbsp;

The Indian economy remained on track to post the fastest growth among major economies this year as its GDP expanded by a better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the July-September quarter to cross pre-pandemic levels.
The GDP growth in the second quarter of the current fiscal (2021-22) was slower than the 20.1 per cent expansion in the previous quarter -- which largely reflected a bounce back from last year's crash -- but was better than the contraction of 7.4 per cent in July-September 2020, official data released on Tuesday showed.
With economic activities returning back to normalcy post the second wave of pandemic earlier this year, this is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth after a two-quarter contraction witnessed last year.
The Q2 FY22 GDP print reflects a healthy recovery in private consumption expenditure driven by an unlock of the economy, the declining intensity of the pandemic and the significant progress on vaccination.
The growth of 8.7 per cent in government expenditure over the corresponding period of the previous year and low-interest rates boosted consumption.
Agriculture chipped in on the back of a good monsoon, delivering back-to-back 4.5 per cent growth.
Manufacturing posted a 5.5 per cent increase, reflecting both a recovery in domestic demand and buoyant exports.
The effect of unlocking was reflected in the 7-8 per cent growth in construction, trade, hotels, transport and financial services.
What seemed to have moved the needle meaningfully was the strong 17.4 per cent growth in government services that include public administration and defence.
The absolute real GDP value at Rs 35.73 lakh crore has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels of Q2 FY20 by 0.33 per cent.
The GDP had shrunk to Rs 32.96 lakh crore in July-September last year during the nationwide lockdown.
GVA clocked 8.5 per cent year-on-year growth in July-September 2021 and the data shows broad-based expansion across sectors.
While private consumption is likely to pick up as the economy nears complete normalisation, a new coronavirus variant has emerged as the top threat to global recovery.
Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) K V Subramanian said India is expected to log double-digit growth in the current financial year (April 2021 to March 2022), aided by rising demand and a robust banking sector.
"The overall growth for the first half has been 13.7 per cent so even a little more than 6 per cent growth in the subsequent quarters should be able to deliver double-digit growth for this year," he said. "We are projecting 6.5-7 per cent next year and thereafter 7 per cent plus over different scenarios." India's GDP projection for 2021 compares with 8 per cent projected for China and 6 per cent for the US. China has logged a growth of 4.9 per cent in the July-September period of 2021.
He also said the seminal second-generation reforms would help the country grow by over 7 per cent during this decade.
With regard to fiscal deficit, he said the Budget estimate is likely to be met.
The government estimates a fiscal deficit of 6.8 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the current financial year ending on March 31, 2022.
Commenting on the GDP numbers, former finance minister and senior Congress leader P Chidambaram said it was not yet a V-shaped recovery and there are sectors of the economy that are still "crippled" and need help to recover.
"Let us extend a cautious welcome. It is NOT yet a 'V' shaped recovery. The fine print will bear that out," he tweeted. "In 2021-22, GDP growth in Q1 was 20.1 percent on a previous year's Q1 growth of -24.4 percent. In Q2, the growth is reported as 8.4 percent on a previous year's Q2 growth of -7.4 percent".
Separately, core sector data was released, which showed a revival in October at 7.5 per cent as compared to a moderation seen at 4.5 per cent in the previous month.
The sharp sequential growth of the core index at 7.3 per cent was driven by a massive recovery in coal production along with healthy sequential growth in output of cement, fertilisers and refinery products.
Except for electricity generation, which has seen a slight sequential contraction due to both seasonal factors and the earlier coal shortage, there has been a broad-based growth across all the core segments, raising hopes of an improving momentum in industrial activity.
The core sector output has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels with the weighted average index in April-October higher by 0.6 per cent as compared to the same period in 2019.
Six segments of the core sector have shown healthy positive growth over this seven-month period vis-a-vis that in FY20, except for crude oil and refined petroleum products.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in April-September 2021-22 (H1 2021-22) is estimated at Rs 68.11 lakh crore as against Rs 59.92 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 13.7 per cent in H1 2021-22 as against a contraction of 15.9 per cent during the same period last year, the data showed.
According to the NSO data, gross value added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated to 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2021-22, compared to a contraction 1.5 per cent a year ago.

 India maintains status as fastest growing economy: GDP grows at 8.4% in Q2

The Indian economy remained on track to post the fastest growth among major economies this year as its GDP expanded by a better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the July-September quarter to cross pre-pandemic levels.
The GDP growth in the second quarter of the current fiscal (2021-22) was slower than the 20.1 per cent expansion in the previous quarter -- which largely reflected a bounce back from last year's crash -- but was better than the contraction of 7.4 per cent in July-September 2020, official data released on Tuesday showed.
With economic activities returning back to normalcy post the second wave of pandemic earlier this year, this is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth after a two-quarter contraction witnessed last year.
The growth of 8.7 per cent in government expenditure over the corresponding period of the previous year and low-interest rates boosted consumption.
Agriculture chipped in on the back of a good monsoon, delivering back-to-back 4.5 per cent growth.
Manufacturing posted a 5.5 per cent increase, reflecting both a recovery in domestic demand and buoyant exports.
The effect of unlocking was reflected in the 7-8 per cent growth in construction, trade, hotels, transport and financial services.
What seemed to have moved the needle meaningfully was the strong 17.4 per cent growth in government services that include public administration and defence.
The absolute real GDP value at Rs 35.73 lakh crore has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels of Q2 FY20 by 0.33 per cent.
The GDP had shrunk to Rs 32.96 lakh crore in July-September last year during the nationwide lockdown.

The absolute real GDP value at Rs 35.73 lakh crore has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels of Q2 FY20 by 0.33 per cent. The GDP had shrunk to Rs 32.96 lakh crore in July-September last year during the nationwide lockdown.

The Indian economy remained on track to post the fastest growth among major economies this year as its GDP expanded by a better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the July-September quarter to cross pre-pandemic levels.
The GDP growth in the second quarter of the current fiscal (2021-22) was slower than the 20.1 per cent expansion in the previous quarter -- which largely reflected a bounce back from last year's crash -- but was better than the contraction of 7.4 per cent in July-September 2020, official data released on Tuesday showed.
Also Watch:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/india-gdp-growth-for-april-june-quarter-at-20-1-record-high-gdp-1630411376049">Record high GDP at 20.1% in April-June, is the economy mending or is it a numerical illusion?</a>
With economic activities returning back to normalcy post the second wave of pandemic earlier this year, this is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth after a two-quarter contraction witnessed last year.
The Q2 FY22 GDP print reflects a healthy recovery in private consumption expenditure driven by an unlock of the economy, the declining intensity of the pandemic and the significant progress on vaccination.
The growth of 8.7 per cent in government expenditure over the corresponding period of the previous year and low-interest rates boosted consumption.
Agriculture chipped in on the back of a good monsoon, delivering back-to-back 4.5 per cent growth.
Manufacturing posted a 5.5 per cent increase, reflecting both a recovery in domestic demand and buoyant exports.
The effect of unlocking was reflected in the 7-8 per cent growth in construction, trade, hotels, transport and financial services.
What seemed to have moved the needle meaningfully was the strong 17.4 per cent growth in government services that include public administration and defence.
The absolute real GDP value at Rs 35.73 lakh crore has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels of Q2 FY20 by 0.33 per cent.
The GDP had shrunk to Rs 32.96 lakh crore in July-September last year during the nationwide lockdown.
GVA clocked 8.5 per cent year-on-year growth in July-September 2021 and the data shows broad-based expansion across sectors.
While private consumption is likely to pick up as the economy nears complete normalisation, a new coronavirus variant has emerged as the top threat to global recovery.
Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) K V Subramanian said India is expected to log double-digit growth in the current financial year (April 2021 to March 2022), aided by rising demand and a robust banking sector.
"The overall growth for the first half has been 13.7 per cent so even a little more than 6 per cent growth in the subsequent quarters should be able to deliver double-digit growth for this year," he said. "We are projecting 6.5-7 per cent next year and thereafter 7 per cent plus over different scenarios." India's GDP projection for 2021 compares with 8 per cent projected for China and 6 per cent for the US. China has logged a growth of 4.9 per cent in the July-September period of 2021.
He also said the seminal second-generation reforms would help the country grow by over 7 per cent during this decade.
With regard to fiscal deficit, he said the Budget estimate is likely to be met.
The government estimates a fiscal deficit of 6.8 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the current financial year ending on March 31, 2022.
Commenting on the GDP numbers, former finance minister and senior Congress leader P Chidambaram said it was not yet a V-shaped recovery and there are sectors of the economy that are still "crippled" and need help to recover.
"Let us extend a cautious welcome. It is NOT yet a 'V' shaped recovery. The fine print will bear that out," he tweeted. "In 2021-22, GDP growth in Q1 was 20.1 percent on a previous year's Q1 growth of -24.4 percent. In Q2, the growth is reported as 8.4 percent on a previous year's Q2 growth of -7.4 percent".
Separately, core sector data was released, which showed a revival in October at 7.5 per cent as compared to a moderation seen at 4.5 per cent in the previous month.
The sharp sequential growth of the core index at 7.3 per cent was driven by a massive recovery in coal production along with healthy sequential growth in output of cement, fertilisers and refinery products.
Except for electricity generation, which has seen a slight sequential contraction due to both seasonal factors and the earlier coal shortage, there has been a broad-based growth across all the core segments, raising hopes of an improving momentum in industrial activity.
The core sector output has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels with the weighted average index in April-October higher by 0.6 per cent as compared to the same period in 2019.
Six segments of the core sector have shown healthy positive growth over this seven-month period vis-a-vis that in FY20, except for crude oil and refined petroleum products.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in April-September 2021-22 (H1 2021-22) is estimated at Rs 68.11 lakh crore as against Rs 59.92 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 13.7 per cent in H1 2021-22 as against a contraction of 15.9 per cent during the same period last year, the data showed.
According to the NSO data, gross value added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated to 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2021-22, compared to a contraction 1.5 per cent a year ago.

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