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India's GDP growth rate for 2024-25 is estimated at 6.4%, marking a four-year low primarily due to a slowdown in the manufacturing and services sectors. 

India’s GDP growth forecast at 6.4% for 2024-25

<p>India's GDP growth rate for 2024-25 is estimated at 6.4%, marking a four-year low primarily due to a slowdown in the manufacturing and services sectors.&nbsp;</p>

<p>India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, mainly on account of poor showing by the manufacturing and services sector, according to government data released on Tuesday.</p>
<p>The gross domestic product (GDP) rate of 6.4 per cent will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8 per cent. It was 9.7 per cent in 2021-22; 7 per cent in 2022-23; and 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal ended March 2024.</p>
<p>The first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) is lower than the 6.6 per cent projected by the Reserve Bank in December 2024. It is also a tad lower than the finance ministry's initial projection of 6.5-7 per cent.</p>
<p>The advance estimates will be used in preparation for the Union Budget to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha on February 1.</p>
<p>The manufacturing sector output is expected to decelerate to 5.3 per cent from a high of 9.9 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal, NSO said in the first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25.</p>
<p>The services sector, comprising trade, hotels, transport and communications, is estimated to expand at 5.8 per cent against 6.4 per cent in 2023-24.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the farm sector is estimated to record a growth of 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 1.4 per cent in 2023-24.</p>
<p>"Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2 per cent in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24," NSO said.</p>
<p>Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7 per cent in 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2023-24.</p>
<p>According to the data, nominal GDP (GDP at current prices) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 324.11 lakh crore in the year 2024-25 against Rs 295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7 per cent.</p>
<p>The size of the economy, as per the current estimates, is USD 3.8 trillion (@ Rs 85.7/USD) during 2024-25.</p>
<p>Further, the nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 292.64 lakh crore in 2024-25 against Rs 267.62 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.3 per cent.</p>
<p>Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3 per cent during 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4 per cent in the previous financial year.</p>
<p>Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1 per cent compared to the growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the previous fiscal.</p>

On global economy, SBI Ecowrap report mentioned that the likelihood of the economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2023 has brightened in recent months with risks broadly balanced

GDP for Q3 FY24 forecast to be 6.8%: SBI Ecowrap

<h2>On global economy, SBI Ecowrap report mentioned that the likelihood of the economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2023 has brightened in recent months with risks broadly balanced</h2>

<p>The latest SBI Ecowrap report stated that the Gross Domestic Product for the for the October to December quarter of financial year 2023-24 is projected to be 6.8%. This is slightly higher than RBI's expectation of 6.5% growth for the third quarter.</p>
<h3><strong>GDP Expectation</strong></h3>
<p>Factoring in the slight decline in economic activity in the third quarter, the report mentioned that the GDP should grow in the range of 6.7% to 6.9%. Driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban-rural landscape, Corporate Indian continued its robust performance.&nbsp;</p>
<p>As per the report, Corporate results from 4,000 listed entities for Q3 FY24 show robust growth of more than 30% in both EBIDTA and PAW, while top line grew by around 7% compared to the same period previous year.</p>
<p>As per first advance estimates, the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 declined 4.6% to 148.5 MMT. The overall acreage increased slightly as indicated by the sowing season of rabi crops. Meanwhile, the sown area under cereals saw a decline of 6.5% from the previous year.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&ldquo;While agriculture may see some moderation if the rabi output does not offset the kharif shortfall value added in agriculture will decline. The inland fish production has shown a rapid growth from 2014-15 to 2022-23 and reached 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23,&rdquo; the report stated</p>
<p><strong>Also Read: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/rbi-monetary-policy-committee-meet-minutes-reveal-continued-focus-on-bringing-inflation-down-1708607919157">RBI Monetary Policy Committee meet minutes reveal continued focus on bringing inflation down</a></strong></p>
<p>On global economy, the report mentioned that the likelihood of the economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2023 has brightened in recent months with risks broadly balanced.</p>
<p>As per the report, a significant slowdown in China, attributed to deflationary fears, primarily due to a property bubble and local government debt, which has slowed down bank lending despite recent rate cuts aimed at boosting demand has intensified the global economic complexity. China's struggle pose a challenge to &nbsp;the industrial and commodity demands, especially as the world is gradually recovering from the recent disruptions.</p>
<p>The report however mentioned that India is witnessing a boost in consumer confidence, largely driven by a positive outlook on the overall economic situation and employment conditions in contrast to the global economic gloom.</p>

The growth in the agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing sector was 1.2% in Q2FY24, a decline from the 2.5% growth recorded in Q2FY23.

India's Q2FY24 GDP surges 7.6%

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<p>The growth in the agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing sector was 1.2% in Q2FY24, a decline from the 2.5% growth recorded in Q2FY23.</p>
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<p>India's economic landscape has shown remarkable resilience as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surged by 7.6% in the second quarter (July-September) of the fiscal year 2023-24, as per the latest data unveiled by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday. This notable growth outpaced the projections set by financial analysts, marking a substantial upturn for the nation.</p>
<p>The figures depict a significant improvement compared to the previous year, with the year-on-year (YoY) growth standing at 6.2%. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the growth stood slightly below at 7.8%, signaling a robust economic recovery trajectory.</p>
<p>Breaking down the sector-wise performance, the agricultural sector, encompassing agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing, witnessed a growth of 1.2% in Q2FY24, down from 2.5% recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year.</p>
<p>Furthermore, the mining and quarrying industry marked a substantial upswing, growing by 10% in Q2FY24, in stark contrast to a contraction of 0.1% witnessed in Q2FY23.</p>
<p>The manufacturing sector notably rebounded with a remarkable growth rate of 13.9%, recovering from a contraction of 3.8% experienced in Q2FY23, showcasing an impressive resurgence.</p>
<p>Likewise, the construction sector displayed a robust performance, expanding by 13.3% in Q2FY24, a substantial increase from the 5.7% growth reported in Q2FY23.</p>
<p>However, there was a visible slowdown in the growth of the trade, hotels, transport, communications, and other related services sector, which recorded a growth rate of 4.3% in Q2FY24, significantly lower than the 15.6% growth observed in the same period of the previous fiscal year.</p>
<p><strong>Also Watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/economy/india-s-q2fy24-gdp-growth-expected-to-outpace-rbi-s-projections-1701321716160#google_vignette">India's Q2FY24 GDP growth expected to outpace RBI's projections</a></strong></p>

India's Q2FY24 GDP growth expected to outpace RBI's projections

<h2>RBI's forecast of 6.5% GDP growth for Q2FY24 mirrors its estimate for Q1FY24</h2>

<p>As anticipation builds for India's Q2FY24 GDP data release on November 30, experts foresee another potential surpassing of RBI estimates for the second consecutive quarter in the current fiscal year.</p>
<p>RBI's forecast of 6.5% GDP growth for Q2FY24 mirrors its estimate for Q1FY24. However, the economy surged beyond expectations in the previous quarter, hitting 7.8% growth, outperforming both market predictions and RBI's projection of 6.5%.</p>
<p><strong>Also read/watch - <a title="Gold, Silver Rates today November 30, 2023: Check Prices in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/gold-silver-rates-today-november-30-2023-check-prices-in-mumbai-delhi-chennai-1701320718338">Gold, Silver Rates today November 30, 2023: Check Prices in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai</a></strong></p>
<p>Analysts predict a similar trend for Q2, with expectations hovering around 7% growth or higher. This potential overachievement would mark the second successive quarter where the economy outshines RBI's estimates in this fiscal year.</p>
<p>Despite this optimism, RBI foresees a gradual slowdown in GDP growth for the following quarters. Projections indicate a decline to 6% and 5.7% growth in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Overall, RBI anticipates a broad 6.5% GDP growth for the entire FY24.</p>

For the first quarter of 2023-24, GDP came in at 7.8%. Meanwhile, GDP during the January-March quarter of 2022-23 was 6.1% and 4.5% in October-December

India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q1FY24 

<p>For the first quarter of 2023-24, GDP came in at 7.8%. Meanwhile, GDP during the January-March quarter of 2022-23 was 6.1% and 4.5% in October-December</p>

<p>India recorded economic growth of 7.8% in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1% in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Data (NSO) released on Thursday.</p>
<p>India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3%.</p>
<p>As per the NSO data, the agriculture sector recorded a 3.5% growth, up from 2.4% in the April-June quarter of 2022-23.</p>
<p>However, the growth in the manufacturing sector decelerated to 4.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal compared to 6.1% in the year-ago period. The construction sector's GDP growth settled at 7.9%, a notable drop from the 16% of the previous fiscal year.</p>
<p>The financial services sector's growth escalated from 7.1% to 12.2%, while the trade, hotel, and transport sector's growth went from 9.1% to 9.2%. The mining sector experienced growth from 4.3% to 5.8%. However, there was a decline in the growth of electricity and public utility, plummeting from 6.9% to 2.9%. Comparing Gross Value Added (GVA), it rose from 6.5% in the previous quarter (Q4FY23) to 7.8% in the current quarter (Q1FY24)</p>
<p>The growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the January-March quarter of 2022-23 was 6.1% and 4.5% in October-December.&nbsp;</p>

RBI lowers GDP growth projection, hikes repo rate

<p>&nbsp;RBI has&nbsp;maintained policy stance at &lsquo;withdrawal of accommodation&rsquo;</p>

<p>Making it the 5th tiime in a row, the RBI&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday raised the repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25 per cent with immediate effect, making loans expensive. The policy rate is now at the highest level since August 2018. The RBI has maintained policy stance at &lsquo;withdrawal of accommodation&rsquo;.</p>
<p>The RBI lowered FY23 GDP growth forecast to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent earlier. The central bank has, however, retained its retail inflation projection for FY23 at 6.7 per cent.&nbsp;</p>
<p>This is the fifth consecutive repo rate hike this year. With this latest hike, the RBI&rsquo;s rate-setting panel has raised the key policy rate by 225 basis points this year in total, in order to control inflation. The repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI lends to the commercial bank.</p>

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