2023 Himachal floods & 2013 Uttarakhand floods: decoding the similarity

Internet is currently abuzz with pictures and videos of recent rainfall in northern India. Pictures and videos of heavy rainfall have left people worried and many wondered if this monsoon is similar to one that took place in 2013 and caused floods in Uttarakhand.

It is worth taking note that the recent rainfall that is being witnessed in northwest India is more than that is usually witnessed. IMD reported that this time northwest India had 59% excess rainfall, whereas, it was 4% excess rainfall in central India.

But, the question that lies here is what is causing extreme rainfall in North India?

According to a report by TOI, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that over the past two days, there were two active weather systems in north India. One of these systems was a trough stretching from Rajasthan to the north Arabian Sea, which was associated with a western disturbance.

Simultaneously, the strong monsoon conditions allowed winds from the Bay of Bengal to reach the northern region. Consequently, there was a convergence of these two systems, primarily centred around Jammu & Kashmir on Saturday and Himachal Pradesh on Sunday. These areas experienced heavy showers as they received moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

He further mentioned that such interactions between two weather systems are not unusual and have often been linked to severe weather occurrences, particularly in the hilly regions of northwest India.

As an example, he referred to a notable incident in mid-June 2013. During that time, a western disturbance drew moisture towards the northern region from a low-pressure system originating from the Bay of Bengal. This unique combination not only facilitated the rapid progression of the monsoon across the entire country (reaching its coverage milestone by June 16) but also resulted in catastrophic heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand. The intense precipitation included a cloudburst at Kedarnath, causing significant damage and loss of life.

Is it going to rain even more in the coming days?

According to Mahesh Palawat, the vice president of climate change and meteorology at Skymet Weather Services, the intensity of rainfall will gradually decrease, although it is expected to persist in Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and certain areas of Bihar.

The monsoon trough is shifting towards the Indo-Gangetic Plains. The recent period of heavy rainfall was primarily attributed to the interaction between a western disturbance and the trough. However, normal rainfall patterns will persist over northwest India in the subsequent periods, as stated by the private forecaster.

Also watch: Season's first heavy rainfall leaves Delhi paralysed, IMD predicts...