USAID Funding Cuts May Lead to 14 Million Avoidable Deaths by 2030

New Delhi, Jul 1 (PTI) – A recent study published in The Lancet warns that significant funding cuts to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) could result in over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030, with a third of these fatalities affecting children under the age of five.

The research suggests that these financial reductions could dismantle decades of health progress, equating the impact on numerous low and middle-income countries to a catastrophic global pandemic or a major armed conflict.

Earlier in March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that President Donald Trump’s administration had cancelled 83 per cent of USAID's programmes, which is regarded as the world’s largest provider of humanitarian and development aid.

Davide Rasella, study coordinator and research professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) in Spain, highlighted the gravity of the situation, stating, "The funding cuts risk abruptly halting -- and even reversing -- two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations."

According to the study, between 2001 and 2021, USAID-supported programmes were instrumental in preventing over 90 million deaths in low and middle-income countries, with a third of these lives being those of children.

"Our analysis indicates that USAID funding has been a crucial factor in saving lives and enhancing health outcomes in some of the world's most susceptible regions over the past two decades," noted Daniella Cavalcanti, the study's first author and a postdoctoral researcher at the Federal University of Bahia, Brazil.

The researchers used predictive models to examine two scenarios: maintaining the 2023 funding levels or implementing the drastic 83-per cent cut announced for March 2025. "The current sharp funding cuts could result in more than 14,051,750 additional deaths of all ages, including 4,537,157 deaths among children under five, by 2030," the study authors stated.

The study further revealed that USAID-supported programmes have been linked to a 15 per cent reduction in all-cause mortality and a 32 percent drop in mortality rates among children under five. Countries receiving considerable USAID support have seen notable health improvements, with HIV/AIDS deaths declining by 74 per cent, malaria by 53 per cent, and neglected tropical diseases by 51 per cent, compared to those receiving minimal or no support.

This research is the first comprehensive analysis to evaluate the impact of total USAID funding, which encompasses health care, nutrition, humanitarian aid, development, education, and related sectors, on mortality rates in low and middle-income countries over the last two decades.