New Delhi, May 28 (PTI) — A recent report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has announced a 70% likelihood of global temperatures during 2025-2029 surpassing pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The announcement, made on Wednesday, conveys alarming news for our warming planet.
Furthermore, the report suggests an 80% probability that at least one year in the next five could exceed 2024's record as the hottest year on record. Notably, 2024 marked the first calendar year during which global temperatures rose more than 1.5 degrees Celsius over the 1850-1900 baseline, a time predating significant human-induced climate impacts.
This critical 1.5-degree threshold aligns with the target set at the Paris climate summit in 2015, where nations united in an effort to prevent the most detrimental effects of climate change. However, a permanent breach as conceived in the Paris Agreement pertains to warming maintained over a period of 20 to 30 years.
In the coming months, countries are slated to submit their new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or updated climate action plans for 2031-2035 to the UN climate body. These plans collectively aim to limit global temperature increase to within the 1.5-degree mark.
The WMO's projections estimate the global average near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will range from 1.2 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above levels recorded from 1850 to 1900. The chance of the temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees above this historic average for at least one year in this duration is stated at 86%.
Moreover, there's a 70% possibility that the average temperature for the entire five-year period could exceed the 1.5-degree benchmark compared to pre-industrial times.
"We've just witnessed the planet's ten warmest years on record. Regrettably, this WMO report shows no signs of relief in the coming years, indicating rising negative impacts on economies, daily life, ecosystems, and our planet at large," remarked WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. Barrett emphasized the necessity of ongoing climate monitoring and prediction, calling it vital for providing decision-makers with reliable scientific data to inform adaptation strategies.
In South Asia, recent years have seen a trend of increased rainfall, excluding 2023, a pattern expected to persist through 2025 to 2029, although some seasons may still experience dry spells. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India observed above-normal monsoon rainfall in four of the last five years, with another wet season forecast for this year.
Notably, the WMO indicates that the Arctic is anticipated to warm significantly faster than the global average over the next five winters (November to March), likely by about 2.4 degrees Celsius, or more than three and a half times the mean global rate. This warming is expected to lead to further reductions in sea ice, particularly in regions like the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
In the period from May to September 2025-2029, the WMO foresees increased rainfall in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, whereas the Amazon might experience drier than normal conditions. PTI GVS DIV DIV
