Lok Sabha election 2024: how close were exit polls predictions in 2014 and 2019

As exit poll surveys have predicted a BJP sweep and the return of the Narendra Modi government, it is pertinent to recall how close close were the exit polls in the past two general elections, which is 2014 and 2019-- both won by the Narendra Modi-led BJP by huge margins.

In 2014, an average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats – failing to estimate the extent of the ‘Modi wave’ that year. The NDA had finished with 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44.

In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls put the NDA’s combined tally at 306 and the UPA’s at 120 – again underestimating the NDA’s performance, which won 353 seats in all. The UPA got 93. Of these, the BJP won 303, and the Congress 52.