In a war being fought with missiles and tanks and fighter jets worth millions of dollars, will it finally be cheap 'suicide' drones which decide the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
With Ukraine managing to hold off Russia's invading army for nearly 8 months, Vladimir Putin has employed a new strategy.
'SUICIDE' STRATEGY
Russia is using Iranian 'suicide' drones to complement missile and rocket attacks. Ukraine's capital Kyiv, and Kharkiv are among the areas which have been hit by such drones. Southern Ukrainian cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa have also been struck with these UAVs.
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13 October 2022 marked the fourth consecutive day of aerial hits on Ukraine's civilian areas. Ukrainian authorities said that 'critical infrastructure facilities' had been attacked. The first recorded use of Iranian drones in Ukraine occurred in September 2022.
The long war seems to have exhausted a large part of Russia's weapons arsenal. And Moscow is now deploying cheap Iranian attack drones called Shahed-136, according to Kyiv.
SHAHED-136 DRONE
The drone is manufactured by Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company. It is a type of loitering munition, which are also called kamikaze drones. They attack by flying into the target, and exploding upon impact.
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These drones carry explosives weighing 5 to 30 kg. They cost $20,000 each. They have a claimed range of 2,500 km, and weigh around 200 kg. They are launched from the backs of trucks.
True to their name, these loitering munitions can fly around the target area until an attack is ordered. These drones also fly in a swarm in order to overwhelm the enemy's air defence systems. By doing so, a few of the drones can slip past the air defence line, and conduct attacks.
Russia calls these drones the Geran-2, and using them, Moscow has been attacking Ukrainian civilian structures, soldier barracks, military vehicles, and artillery pieces.
These 'suicide' drones offer many advantages to the attacker, but they are not the perfect weapon.
NOT THE PERFECT WEAPON
Each Shahed-136 drone costs $20,000, which is quite inexpensive in the world of modern weapons. However, Russia does have to bear the additional cost of transporting these drones from Iran to Russia, and then to the battlefields in Ukraine.
These drones are capable of hitting specific targets at a distance, but the quality of some parts like the cameras has been suffering due to Western sanctions on Iran. If Russia upgrades them, it means more expenditure.
One advantage is that these drones fly low, and so are difficult to detect. But they are not very fast, using a basic 2-stroke engine.
The Shahed-136 does pack a punch with a 30-kg explosive, but it is also a very noisy machine, and cannot be used for silent, sneak attacks.
One strike tactic is using these drones in a swarm to overwhelm enemy air defences, but the attrition rate of these drones has also been high. Of the 75 drones launched by Russia on 10 October, Ukraine claimed to have brought down 41 of them, i.e. 55%.
Experts say that these drones are a big headache for Ukraine, as Russia can more easily hit supply lines, communications, warehouses, and other important infrastructure. So, how can Kyiv's forces counter the modern kamikazes?
WHAT UKRAINE NEEDS
These drones can be brought down with radar-guided guns, but Ukraine does not have enough of them, according to reports. This is why Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government has been seeking the Phalanx weapon system from USA.
The Iranian drones are also difficult to hit with shoulder-fired Javelin bazookas. In contrast, the Phalanx is a rapid-fire, computer-controlled, and radar-guided gun.
The Shahed-136 has a small heat signature, so most man-portable guns are useless against it. The Phalanx can be effective here as it is a proven platform to take down rockets, artillery, and mortars.
Even as Ukraine's government waits for America and other Western countries to supply better weapons, the people of Ukraine have banded together.
FUND-RAISER FOR DRONES
Ukrainians recently organised a fund-raiser in the aftermath of Russia's drone attacks on civilian areas. The money was collected to buy 'suicide' drones for Ukraine's army. $9.6 million were reportedly raised in just 24 hours to buy Ram-II attack drones.
Initially, at least 50 Ram-II drones will be bought for Ukrainian forces. The Ram-II drone can carry 3 kg explosives, and has a 30 km flight range. Earlier, one of these drones allegedly destroyed a Russian missile system worth £634,000.
WAR OF THE DRONES?
Drones have been playing a big role in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Kyiv's forces have been using the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones to attack Russian missile systems, and even ships. Russia has also been using the Orlan-10 drones for recon and electronic warfare.
But with the war stretching on for months and months, both sides seem to be running low on resources and weapons. Russia more so than Ukraine, which has support of Western countries.
On 10 October 2022, Russia fired around 84 missiles. And they must have cost up to $13 million each, according to reports.
In such a situation, it might be cheap 'suicide' drones like the Shahed-136 which could prove to be the gamechanger. The question is - can Ukraine come up with an effective counter-strategy in time?
