Highlights

  • Moody's downgrades China's economic outlook due to growth challenges.
  • China's GDP growth expected at 4% in 2024-25 by Moody's.

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Moody's downgrades China's credit outlook to 'negative' amid economic uncertainty

Moody’s foresees China's property sector having a smaller economic role post-2021, expecting GDP to be around 4% in 2024-25 and averaging 3.8% from 2026-2030.

Moody's downgrades China's credit outlook to 'negative' amid economic uncertainty

Moody's Investors Service dealt a blow to China's economic outlook, marking a shift from 'stable' to 'negative' due to persistent challenges in its growth trajectory and the ongoing turmoil in the property sector. The downgrade reflects heightened concerns over China's structural issues affecting its economic prospects.

Highlighting these concerns, Moody’s cited a sustained slowdown in medium-term economic growth, emphasizing the ongoing contraction within China's property sector. Despite the downgrade in outlook, Moody's reaffirmed China's credit rating at 'A1'.

The ratings agency anticipates the Chinese property sector to maintain a reduced share of the overall economy, compared to its pre-2021 correction levels. This adjustment comes amidst predictions by Moody’s that China's GDP growth will likely hover around 4% in 2024 and 2025, with an average of 3.8% between 2026 and 2030.

A recent report also pointed to subdued consumer and business spending, sluggish exports, and the persistent property market turbulence contributing to the country's growth deceleration.

Consequently, the stock market in China experienced a downturn, reflecting growing concerns about the country's economic performance amid fluctuating economic indicators.

Global financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, observed a trend of decreased investments in China and broader emerging Asian markets by hedge funds in November, signaling reduced confidence in the world's second-largest economy.

In response to these challenges, China's top leadership is gearing up for crucial meetings this month. Analysts anticipate the Communist Party’s Politburo, comprising 24 key officials, to convene and set ambitious growth targets for 2024. Goldman Sachs economists highlighted the potential benefits of such targets, suggesting they could counteract negative sentiments and uplift growth prospects.

As China navigates these economic headwinds, policymakers face the critical task of devising strategies to reinvigorate growth and restore investor confidence in the nation's economic stability.

Also Watch: Moody's lowers ratings of US banks, signals potential reductions for others


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