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US retail inflation sees a faster annual increase of 2.6% versus the September rise of 2.4%. With inflation moving further from the US Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the rate decision trajectory is likely to become more uncertain.

US Retail Inflation Surges By 2.6%: What This Means for Fed Rate Cuts

US retail inflation sees a faster annual increase of 2.6% versus the September rise of 2.4%. With inflation moving further from the US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s 2% goal, the rate decision trajectory is likely to become more uncertain.

The Consumer Price Index in the United States has increased by 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, according to the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Over the last 12 months, the all-items CPI has increased by 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment, compared to a 2.4 percent increase in September.
CPI &amp; Fed Rate Decision
The rise in the annual CPI reading has added uncertainty to the US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s rate cut trajectory. Some economists believe that the Jerome Powell-led US Fed may avoid aggressive rate cuts in the near future, as the annual retail inflation figure has now moved further from the US Fed&rsquo;s 2 percent goal.
Fed&rsquo;s November Rate Cut Decision
Remember, just last week the US Federal Reserve announced its second consecutive interest rate cut. On November 7, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points, to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. This decision followed September&rsquo;s 50 basis points reduction, indicating a less aggressive pace of rate cuts.
US Consumer Price Index: The Fine Print
Looking at the annual changes, the all-items CPI rose by 2.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, after rising by 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all-items less food and energy index rose by 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased by 4.9 percent for the 12 months ending October. The food index increased by 2.1 percent over the last year.
US CPI: Monthly Changes in October
On a monthly basis, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September. Indexes that increased in October include shelter, used cars and trucks, airline fares, medical care, and recreation. The indexes for apparel, communication, and household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month.
The index for shelter rose by 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising by 0.2 percent, as the food-at-home index increased by 0.1 percent and the food-away-from-home index rose by 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining by 1.9 percent in September.
Must Watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/india-s-income-tax-surge-contribution-from-50-lakh-earners-soars-1731563528058">India&rsquo;s Income Tax Surge: Contribution from ₹50 Lakh+ Earners Soars</a>

Ahead of the September Fed meeting, analysts speculate a rate cut for the first time since 2020. With inflation at 2.5%, markets are pricing in a 25bps cut. Gold has surged to a record $2,586, and bond yields are falling amid dollar weakness.

US Fed Rate Cut Incoming? Jerome Powell Hints At First Cut Since 2020; Dollar Weakens, Gold Surges

Ahead of the September Fed meeting, analysts speculate a rate cut for the first time since 2020. With inflation at 2.5%, markets are pricing in a 25bps cut. Gold has surged to a record $2,586, and bond yields are falling amid dollar weakness.

US Central Bank Chief Jerome Powell begins, as markets teeter on the edge, anticipating his next words.
The September Federal Reserve meeting stands as one of the most crucial economic events this year, not just for the United States but globally.
Experts, including economists and market analysts, are weighing in, speculating that the US Fed may cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The American central bank has held its key lending rate at a two-decade high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent for the past 14 months.
With the European Central Bank recently cutting rates by 25 basis points and China preparing to reduce rates on five trillion dollars' worth of mortgages, all eyes are now on the US Fed's rate decision.
Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at a potential cut in the upcoming meeting, raising expectations. But the big question remains: What will be the magnitude of this rate cut?
Before we delve into that, let's explore the US Fed's role. The American central bank has two key mandates: maintaining price stability and promoting a robust job market.
With inflation at its lowest since February 2021&mdash;sitting at 2.5%&mdash;it appears that price stability is no longer the primary concern.
According to Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, the Fed has been cautious about cutting rates for fear of reigniting inflation. However, with recent data suggesting inflation is under control, the door is now open for a potential cut to boost growth.
In fact, markets are pricing in a 61% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
However, experts at ING Think, who had earlier suggested a 50 basis points cut, now believe the latest jobs and inflation data lean more towards a 25 basis point reduction.
As we await the crucial rate decision, the impact is already being felt across asset classes. The US 10-year bond yield has dropped from 4.28% in July to 3.65% now. The US Dollar has also weakened, with the Dollar Index falling to 100.96. Investors are moving towards safer assets, and gold prices have surged to all-time highs, with some analysts predicting it could reach 3,000 dollars.
These movements across asset classes align with expert commentary. With inflation stable and markets reacting in real-time, all eyes are on Jerome Powell. And the big question is will the Fed opt for a 25 or a 50 basis point cut?
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don't forget to like and subscribe for more updates on this evolving story!

AFP further reports that the widespread expectation that the FOMC will maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on June 12

US Fed rate decision: Likely to remain on pause and pare back rate cut expectations

AFP further reports that the widespread expectation that the FOMC will maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on June 12

The US Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but could pare back the number of cuts it has penciled in for this year, as policymakers digest a mixed bag of economic data.
Stalled progress against inflation and a robust labor market have pushed many analysts to predict that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not cut interest rates from their current 23-year high before September at the earliest.
Also read/watch - <a title="5 firms raised Rs 9,606 crore via initial public offerings in May" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/markets/5-firms-raised-rs-9-606-crore-via-initial-public-offerings-in-may-1718019396835">5 firms raised Rs 9,606 crore via initial public offerings in May</a>
A September start to cuts would likely increase the gap between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), which began easing monetary policy rates last week.
"Data released since the last meeting indicate that the threat of price re-acceleration due to strong economic activity has diminished somewhat," Wells Fargo economists wrote in a recent note to clients.
"However, we share the universal expectation that the FOMC will keep its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on June 12," they said.

Owing to the reduced inflation, the Federal Reserve Bank has predicted three rate cuts in 2024, while some Wall street economists have forecasted five cuts this year, and are expecting the US FED to hold the rate constant this time

Key expectations on US federal reserve bank's monetary policy decision

<h2>Owing to the reduced inflation, the Federal Reserve Bank has predicted three rate cuts in 2024, while some Wall street economists have forecasted five cuts this year, and are expecting the US FED to hold the rate constant this time</h2>

The US Federal Reserve Bank is all set to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, January 31. The Fed has spent nearly two years raising the interest rate to combat inflation.&nbsp;
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is underway and the minutes of the January 30-31 meeting will be released on February 21.
<h3>Expectation on FED rate</h3>
Owing to the reduced inflation, the Federal Reserve Bank has predicted three rate cuts in 2024, while some Wall street economists have forecasted five cuts this year. Jerome Powell's press conference will also be monitored closely because the FED chief could provide some hints as to how policymakers are considering when to lower interest rates.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/federal-reserve-holds-key-interest-rates-for-the-third-time-in-a-row-1702525279894">Federal Reserve holds rates steady, indicates three cuts in 2024</a>
US markets are expecting a rate cut in May. Even while rate cuts could provide some respite to households and businesses with loans, Wall street experts expect FED to hold the rate constant this time.&nbsp;
<h3>US Economy in check</h3>
Inflation in US had dropped in the recent months and the economy has remained resilient. As per data, the economy grew at a significantly faster rate in the fourth quarter than economists expected.
The growth also accelerated to 3.3% annual rate, following a 4.9% expansion in the July-September period. As per JOLTS survey, job opportunities in the United States surged unexpectedly in December while fewer Americans left their jobs.

The domestic market, the gold future contract for February 2024 on MCX spiked to an unprecedented ₹64,000 per 10 grams

Gold hits record high amid US Fed rate cut expectations: Time to buy or sell the yellow metal? 

The domestic market, the gold future contract for February 2024 on MCX spiked to an unprecedented ₹64,000 per 10 grams. Concurrently, silver prices on MCX started at ₹78,450 per kg, peaking at ₹78,549&nbsp;

Gold rates on Monday surged to record highs amidst speculations of a potential US Fed rate cut following remarks by Jerome Powell. Early in the Asian stock market, gold soared past $2,100 (₹175,197), hitting an all-time peak of $2,146 (₹179,319) per ounce.
Similarly, in the domestic market, the gold future contract for February 2024 on MCX spiked to an unprecedented ₹64,000 per 10 grams. However, profit booking led to a retracement from these highs, pulling gold prices below $2,100 (₹175,197).
In tandem, silver prices (March 2024 expiry) on MCX started at ₹78,450 per kg, surging to an intraday high of ₹78,549 within minutes of market opening. Internationally, silver hovered around $25.50 per ounce.
Also read/watch - <a title="Stock markets zoom: Post election rally propels Sensex, Nifty to new highs" href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/markets/stock-markets-zoom-post-election-rally-propels-sensex-nifty-to-new-highs-1701689750620">Stock markets zoom: Post election rally propels Sensex, Nifty to new highs</a> HDFC Securities on factors driving the Gold surge
Anuj Gupta from HDFC Securities attributed the surge in gold prices to expectations of a US Fed rate cut. Speculation arose after Jerome Powell's speech, suggesting a potential rate cut by March 2024, likely impacting bond yields and further weakening the US dollar.
According to an ICICI Securities report, gold's rise is linked to weakened treasury yields and the US dollar. German yields hit recent lows, and the 10-year US treasury yields dropped amid speculation that the Fed might conclude its tightening cycle. Powell's speech hinted at the impact of tighter monetary policies on slowing the economy, aligning with their forecasts.
Commenting on gold's outlook, Anuj Gupta highlighted strong support at $2,050 per ounce, with resistance at $2,025. On MCX, gold has support at ₹62,800 and faces a hurdle at ₹64,800 per 10 grams. Gupta suggested a buy-on-dips strategy, citing an overall positive trend for the precious metal in the near term.

The US Fed has kept the lending rates unchanged between 5.25 to 5.5% and has predicted that the lending rates will need to remain higher for longer to definitively cool inflation

US Fed pauses rate hikes but predicts long fight against inflation

The US Fed has kept the lending rates unchanged between 5.25 to 5.5% and has predicted that the lending rates will need to remain higher for longer to definitively cool inflation

The US Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to hold interest rates at a 22-year high while predicting that lending rates will need to remain higher for longer to definitively cool inflation.
"We are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we're confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward our objective," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference after the decision.
After 11 interest rate increases since March last year, inflation has fallen sharply but remains stuck stubbornly above the Fed's long-run target of two percent per year -- keeping pressure on officials to consider further policy action.
The Fed's decision to keep its key lending rate between 5.25 and 5.50 percent gives policymakers more time to assess the health of the US economy amid signs of robust economic growth and a strong labor market.
The move, which was in line with expectations, postpones additional pain for millions of Americans already struggling with the impact of the Fed's existing hikes on mortgages and other loans.
"We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate," Powell said, referring to the Fed's twin mandate to tackle both inflation and unemployment.
<h2>Revision to Growth</h2>
On Wednesday, the Fed said economic activity had been expanding at a solid pace, while noting strong job gains and a low unemployment rate.
The recent string of positive economic data has raised hopes that the Fed can slow price increases without triggering a damaging recession.
Through updated economic forecasts, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated it believes the economy will fare far better than previously hoped, with knock-on effects for Fed policy.
FOMC members left the median projection for interest rates at the end of this year between 5.50 and 5.75 percent, keeping alive the possibility of another quarter percentage point hike before the end of the year to tackle inflation.
At the same time, they raised their forecast for where interest rates will be next year by half a percentage point -- a significant increase that indicates a slower pace of rate cuts than previously anticipated.
"The overall message is unambiguously hawkish," Citi economists wrote in a note to clients after the Fed decision was published.
FOMC members also more than doubled the median projection for economic growth this year to 2.1 percent from 1.0 percent in June, and sharply raised their forecast for next year as well.
"Stronger economic activity means we have to do more with rates," Powell said during his press conference.
The forecast for the unemployment rate in 2023 was lowered slightly from June, suggesting the jobs market is faring better than hoped, while the expectation for headline inflation was raised slightly.
<h2>On the 'golden path'</h2>
Policymakers are looking to keep the country on what Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee calls the "golden path," attempting to slow down inflation while averting a surge in unemployment and a major economic slowdown.
On Wednesday, Powell reiterated previous comments suggesting a data-dependent approach to monetary policy.
"Given how far we've come, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlooks and risks," he told reporters.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs recently cut their expectation of a recession in the United States from 20 percent down to 15 percent, while other economists -- including those in the Fed's research team -- say they no longer expect the US economy to contract this year.

US Fed lifts rates to highest since 2001 to tackle inflation. Powell hints at more hikes if needed. "Soft landing" possible

US Fed raises rates to 22-yr high, hints at further increases

US Fed lifts rates to highest since 2001 to tackle inflation. Powell hints at more hikes if needed. "Soft landing" possible

The US Federal Reserve made a significant move to combat above-target inflation by raising its benchmark lending rate on Wednesday to the highest level since 2001. The quarter-percentage-point increase was announced in response to the ongoing inflation surge and was in line with analysts' expectations.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed the intention to maintain a restrictive policy until inflation showed sustainable progress towards the 2% target. He also hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes later in the year.
Policy to Tackle Inflation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the current policy measures have not been sufficiently restrictive for a significant period to yield their desired effects on inflation. As a result, the decision to raise the interest rates was taken to ensure inflation comes down sustainably to the target rate of 2%. Powell emphasized that the Fed is prepared to tighten monetary policy further if necessary.
Assessing Future Monetary Policy
The US central bank, in its official statement, asserted that it will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. This suggests that there may be more rate hikes in the pipeline as officials closely monitor various economic indicators and data points to gauge the need for additional policy tightening.
Outlook for the Economy
Despite inflation moderating somewhat since last year, it still remains above the target rate. On the positive side, unemployment has remained low, and economic growth in the first quarter was revised upward due to strong consumer spending. The Federal Reserve anticipates maintaining high rates well into 2024, except in the case of a more pronounced economic slowdown and a rise in unemployment. Economic experts predict another rate hike in November, allowing ample time to assess the economy's cooling and any potential disruptions due to strikes.
Possibility of a "Soft Landing"
Recent positive economic news has raised hopes for a "soft landing," wherein the Federal Reserve can effectively reduce inflation by raising interest rates without causing a recession or surging joblessness. Chairman Powell remains optimistic about achieving this goal and reaffirms that a soft landing is possible. The Federal Reserve staff has revised their outlook, indicating a noticeable slowdown in growth later this year but no longer forecasting a recession due to the economy's resilience.
As the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation, it maintains a cautious eye on various economic indicators. The objective is to bring inflation down to the target level sustainably, and further tightening may be considered if required. The possibility of future rate hikes and the potential for a soft landing are key factors that will shape the economic outlook in the coming months. Investors will be closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions in the next meeting in September.

The pause in rate hike comes amid a slower decline in the U.S inflation and the policymakers are foreseeing a 100 basis points cuts in 2024

U.S FED leaves rates unchanged; forecasts two small hikes by end of 2023

The pause in rate hike comes amid a slower decline in the U.S inflation and the policymakers are foreseeing a 100 basis points cuts in 2024

The U.S Federal Reserve bank has left the interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The benchmark lending rate continues to be between 5% and 5.25%. Before the pause, the FED had increased the rate for 10 consecutive times.&nbsp;
However, the new economic projections signal two small rate hikes of 0.25% each, before the end of the year. By this, the benchmark overnight interest rate would rise from the current 5%-5.25% to 5.5%-5.75% by 2023 end.
This comes amid a slower decline in the inflation in U.S. Alongside the declining inflation, the U.S. policymakers are foreseeing a 100 basis point cuts in 2024.
Further decisions on the interest rate would, "take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments," the FOMC statement said.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also pointed out that holding the interest rate would allow the committee to get additional information and its implications for monetary policy.
"Holding the target (interest rate) range steady at this meeting allows the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy," the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a unanimous policy statement issued at the end of its latest two-day meeting.&nbsp;
The FOMC will take another 6 weeks to see the impact of the policy move. The FOMC next meets for two days on 25th and 26th July.

Following Powell's remarks, US stocks rallied, with the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index surging more than three percent

US central banks signals shift to slower interest rate increases

Following Powell's remarks, US stocks rallied, with the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index surging more than three percent

The head of the US central bank has said authorities may start to ease its pace of interest rate hikes "as soon as" December, after racing to raise borrowing costs earlier this year.&nbsp;
He added that the full effects of the bank's moves are yet to be felt, but also warned that its policy will likely have to remain tight "for some time" to restore price stability.
Following Powell's remarks, US stocks rallied, with the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index surging more than three percent.
The central bank has raised the benchmark lending rate by 0.75 percentage points four consecutive times in recent months, out of six rate hikes this year in an aggressive effort to rein in prices.
The latest increase in November took the benchmark lending rate to 3.75-4.0 percent, the highest since January 2008.

From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Power Grid, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, HDFC Bank and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra were among the major winners

Sensex hits record high, Nifty jumps 216 pts amid firm global equities

From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Power Grid, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, HDFC Bank and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra were among the major winners

Equity benchmark BSE Sensex closed at an all-time high of 62,272.68 on Thursday, tracking a firm trend in global markets after the US Fed minutes indicated a slower pace of rate increase that bolstered investors' sentiment.
Extending its rally to the third straight day, the 30-share BSE benchmark rallied 762.10 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 62,272.68, its record closing peak. During the day, it jumped 901.75 points or 1.46 per cent to its lifetime high of 62,412.33.
The broader NSE Nifty gained 216.85 points or 1.19 per cent to end at 18,484.10. During the day, it hit its 52-week high of 18,529.70, higher by 262.45 points or 1.43 per cent.
"Two triggers assisted the Sensex rally to record highs. One, in the mother market US, the market construct turned favourable with rising equities, declining bond yields and falling dollar. Two, macro developments in India show steady rise in credit growth and capex indicating strong economic recovery.
"Along with this, sharp correction in crude is a big positive. This has facilitated this Sensex rally led by large-caps, mainly the HDFC twins, Infosys, TCS and RIL," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Power Grid, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, HDFC Bank and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra were among the major winners.
Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the laggards.
Elsewhere in Asia, markets in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong ended in the green, while Shanghai settled lower.
Equity exchanges in Europe were trading in the green in the afternoon trade. Wall Street had ended higher on Wednesday.
"Led by broad-based buying, domestic indices witnessed solid gains as investors digested the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which hinted that the rate hike cycle may be slowing down. The optimism was further boosted by falling crude prices and the declining dollar index. Crude oil prices dropped over talks of a possible price cap on Russian oil and a rise in US product stockpiles," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
International oil benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.46 per cent lower at USD 85.02 per barrel.

Analysts warn that the economy could enter a recession in 2023 on the effects of the Fed's rate hikes, inflation and a global slowdown in growth
 

US Fed set for further steep rate hike as recession fears loom?

Analysts warn that the economy could enter a recession in 2023 on the effects of the Fed's rate hikes, inflation and a global slowdown in growth
&nbsp;

The US Federal Reserve is pegged to make a fourth straight steep hike in the key interest rate this week as it battles surging costs, with its aggressive stance fueling expectations of a recession.
American households have been squeezed by soaring consumer prices, propelling economic issues to the top spot among voter concerns in upcoming midterm elections. Fed officials walk a tightrope to try and rein in prices while avoiding a downturn.
To raise borrowing costs and cool demand, the US central bank has already cranked up the benchmark lending rate five times this year, including three straight 0.75 percentage point raises.
But with persistently high inflation and a tight labor market supporting wages and spending, analysts say another 0.75 point hike is almost certain at central bankers' next policy meeting.
Further Fed hikes are also expected to dampen consumer and business spending, making it more attractive to save rather than spend.
Analysts warn that the economy could enter a recession in 2023 on the effects of the Fed's rate hikes, inflation and a global slowdown in growth.

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