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ONGC projects strong earnings as increased refining and marketing revenues counterbalance reduced upstream profitability due to low oil prices.

ONGC Earnings Strong Amid Oil Price Changes

ONGC is expected to maintain strong earnings this fiscal year as increased revenue from its refining and marketing segments offsets a decline in upstream profitability caused by recent drops in oil prices.

ONGC anticipates robust fiscal earnings through increased revenue in its refining and marketing segments, effectively counterbalancing declines in upstream profitability caused by recent reductions in oil prices.

State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) earnings are likely to remain resilient in the current fiscal as income from its refining and marketing operations will rise enough to offset a decline in upstream profitability following a recent fall in oil prices, S&amp;P Global Ratings said Monday.
ONGC, it said, is likely to generate enough free cash flow to consolidate its balance sheet and support the rating, but headroom for the 'bbb+' stand-alone credit profile (SACP) remains thin, given recent acquisitions.
"We project ONGC's adjusted EBITDA will be broadly stable at Rs 1-1.05 lakh crore in fiscal 2026, assuming Brent oil prices of USD 65 per barrel (bbl) in 2025 and USD 70 per bbl from 2026 onward," it said in a note.
The company's funds from operations (FFO)-to-debt ratio will likely improve to more than 40 per cent over the next 12-24 months, in line with our expectation for a 'bbb+' SACP.
"We expect the India-based integrated oil and gas company's earnings to remain resilient in fiscal 2026 (ending March 31, 2026). Earnings at the company's refining and marketing operations will rise enough to offset a decline in upstream profitability following a recent fall in oil prices," it said.
Expanded refining and marketing margins at ONGC's subsidiary Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) will support the profitability of the group's downstream operations. This assumes prices at the pump remain largely unchanged amid cheaper feedstock prices.
"We expect the higher marketing margins to more than cover continued losses on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales. Moreover, losses on LPG sales will narrow in fiscal 2026 after the government hiked prices on LPG by Rs 50 (about 10 per cent) per cylinder in April," the rating agency said.
Rising prices on ONGC&rsquo;s gas sales will temper the impact of lower oil prices in fiscal 2026, it added.
"We expect domestic gas prices to increase after India's government raised its cap on gas prices by USD 0.25 per metric million British thermal units (mmbtu) from April 2025. Moreover, gas from new wells will be sold at a higher price." It anticipated about 10 per cent of ONGC's annual gas production will come from new wells, and their pricing will be revised upward to 12 per cent of the preceding month's India crude basket instead of 10 per cent. This translates to about USD 7.8 per mmBtu under our latest oil price assumptions.
"We project discretionary cash flows of Rs 10,000-12,000 crore in fiscal 2026. A moderation is likely in capital spending to Rs 50,000-52,000 crore and in shareholder returns to Rs 6,000-8,000 crore amid softer upstream profitability. These amounts were Rs 55,700 crore and Rs 17,000 crore, respectively, in fiscal 2025," S&amp;P said.
ONGC's fiscal 2025 results were slightly below expectations. "We estimate the company's FFO-to-debt ratio was slightly below 40 per cent, compared with our expectation of 42-44 per cent".
The weaker performance was largely due to an uptick in operating costs and higher debt following recent acquisitions.
HPCL is eligible for government compensation when its revenue from selling LPG in the domestic market is lower than the effective cost of marketing it. This compensation would further support its credit ratios when received. However, some delay in compensation is likely because the under-recovery will only be recognised as revenue in the group's income statement after the government gives its approval, the note added.

Amid Middle East tensions, oil prices surge, sparking global concerns. Moody's Analytics released a note projecting that oil prices could climb by an additional $5 a barrel to $95 and potentially breach the $100 mark if the conflict escalates

Iran-Israel war propel oil prices: Surge triggers global energy security concerns

Amid Middle East tensions, oil prices surge, sparking global concerns. Moody's Analytics released a note projecting that oil prices could climb by an additional $5 a barrel to $95 and potentially breach the $100 mark if the conflict escalates

Oil prices surged on Tuesday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, triggering concerns about global energy security. The international crude oil market witnessed a sharp uptick as investors reacted to the ongoing standoff between Iran and Israel.
The June contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange climbed to $90.57 a barrel, marking a 0.52% increase from its previous close. Similarly, the May contract of West Texas Intermediate on the NYMEX rose by 0.59% to $85.91 a barrel.
Analysts pointed to the recent missile attack by Iran on Israel as a key driver behind the price hike. While initial fears of widespread damage eased following the attack, the event underscored the fragility of the geopolitical situation in the region.
The strength of the US dollar also played a role in shaping market dynamics, with the dollar index reaching five-month highs. This development limited the upward movement of global commodities, including oil. However, comments from Israeli military officials hinting at possible retaliation against Iran provided some support for oil prices.
Moody's Analytics released a note projecting that oil prices could climb by an additional $5 a barrel to $95 and potentially breach the $100 mark if the conflict escalates further.
In response to the surging crude prices, the Indian government announced an increase in the windfall tax on the sale of domestic crude oil to ₹9,600 a tonne, effective from Tuesday. The move aims to capture a portion of the windfall profits garnered by oil exploration and production companies amid the escalating price environment.
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