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The Indian VIX surged 39-44% due to election uncertainty with Sensex and Nifty dropping over 7%, erasing Rs 40 lakh crore in market capitalization. PSU stocks suffered significantly, with sectoral indexes falling by nearly 15%

Lok Sabha poll results: Markets crash, volatility index soars over 40% amid vote counting

<h2>The Indian VIX surged 39-44% due to election uncertainty with Sensex and Nifty dropping over 7%, erasing Rs 40 lakh crore in market capitalization. PSU stocks suffered significantly, with sectoral indexes falling by nearly 15%</h2>

The stock markets are not happy with the Lok Sabha election results trends. The final tally appears to be much below what the street was expecting based on the exit polls. As a result, the volatility index or VIX soared over 40% and is in the range of 29-30. Less than 300 seats for the BJP-led NDA is a clear possibility.&nbsp;
The VIX is the index that gauges the extent of anticipated volatility in the market which also indicates investor sentiment. A higher VIX indicates increasing volatility due to uncertainty and investor fear while a lower VIX indicates a stable period and positive investor sentiment.
<h3>VIX soars</h3>
Amid the counting trend, share markets on Tuesday witnessed deep cuts. This comes as the trend depicts less than 300 seats for the BJP led NDA. The BSE-listed companies erased about Rs 40 lakh crore in m-cap as both the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell over 7% each. Sensex fell below 72,000 points, Nifty 50 fell below the 21,200 mark.
&ldquo;Uncertainty over the actual outcome of election results compared to exit polls is leading to panic amongst market participants. This has led to a rise in India VIX as demand for out-of-money options seems to be on the rise to hedge long positions and portfolios. 30-35 is the crucial range,"Ruchit Jain, Lead Research Analyst at 5paisa told Mint.
The Indian VIX topped the 30-35 range in May 2019 and February 2022 with the exception of Covid-19 Correction.&nbsp;
Mint quoted market experts and said that the market will continue for some time as volatility is very high due to the negative surprise in the election results. In a worst decline in the market in 4 years all the sectoral indices were trading in red on Tuesday.
PSU stocks have suffered greatly, with sectoral indexes falling by almost 15%. Out of the top losers in defence, BEL and HAL dropped by more than 18%.
Also watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/lok-sabha-polls-sensex-falls-over-6-000-points-records-biggest-intraday-fall-in-two-years-1717491089996">Lok Sabha polls: Sensex falls over 6,000 points, records biggest intraday fall in two years</a>

While reiterating that there will not be any significant impact unless there is a steep decline in voter turnout or significant anti-incumbency, Bernstein further mentioned that investors should not read too much  into the turnout numbers

Lok Sabha Polls: Bernstein's advice to investors amid low voter turnout

<h2>While reiterating that there will not be any significant impact unless there is a steep decline in voter turnout or significant anti-incumbency, Bernstein further mentioned that investors should not read too much &nbsp;into the turnout numbers</h2>

Amid concerns over a low voter turnout during the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, foreign brokerage Bernstein points out that there are no obvious correlations between voting percentages and election outcomes based on past elections. In its latest India strategy report, Bernstein said that one should not read too much into the voter turnout numbers at this point.
&ldquo;A large decline (over 5%) without much anti-incumbency should see them repeating figures of 2019 with minor up/down revisions. Only the case of a large vote share decline (over 5%) and significant anti-incumbency is where the elections become a market-defining event. The fact that the opposition is more united nationally this time should start having meaningful repercussions only at this stage&rdquo;, said Bernstein
<h3>Bernstein on voter turnout</h3>
The firm also said that there will be a marginal rise in vote share for the opposition and a major loss to BJP is unlikely. It also said that the loss due to swing voters will likely be for NDA.
"Assuming a minor decline of 2.5% for overall voting and generously assuming INC captures 75% of the anti-incumbency, we still have the BJP&rsquo;s vote share at 32.7% compared to that of INC at 22.2%. The vote percentage difference is only marginally behind the 2014 difference, still translating to a comfortable victory. Thus, even with anti-incumbency, a minor vote share decline does not translate to any election surprises. The opposition seats will go up given that we&rsquo;re seeing a combined INDIA alliance, but a major loss to BJP seats is unlikely.&rdquo;
Bernstein compared the voter turnout with ballot voting. Additionally the ballot paper impact is larger than what used to be in the past years, it said. It also predicted that there will not be any significant impact unless there is a steep decline in voter turnout or significant anti-incumbency.
"A lack of any connection with an issue on the ground or lack of connection with opposition, for instance, may discourage these swing voters from coming out and voting. This also gets one interesting result: there weren&rsquo;t enough swing votes in favor of INC in 2019 (barely 0.5%). So, assuming the core voters will mostly turn up, the loss due to swing voters will likely be for NDA," Bernstein said
All the four phases of polling so far saw a dip in voter turnout with Phase 4 witnessing 67.3% voter turnout, which was lower than 69.6% in 2019 general elections
Also watch: <a href="https://www.editorji.com/business-news/markets/market-will-shoot-up-after-june-4th-says-amit-shah-attributes-volatility-to-rumours-1715588391527">Market will shoot up after June 4th, says Amit Shah; attributes volatility to rumours</a>

Man, arrested for protesting outside the Parliament, left village saying that he's visiting Delhi for army recruitment. 

Man arrested outside Parliament told parents he was going to Delhi for army recruitment

Man who was detained outside Parliament on Wednesday told parents that he was going to Delhi for an army recruitment drive.&nbsp;

Amol Shinde, arrested for protesting outside the Parliament building on Wednesday, had left his village in Maharashtra's Latur district saying he was going to Delhi to take part in an army recruitment drive, a local police official said.
Shinde (25), a resident of Zari village in Chakur tehsil of Latur, was arrested along with Neelam, 42, of Haryana's Hisar after they opened gas canisters that emitted smoke outside the Parliament building and shouted "Tanashahi Nahi Chalegi" (dictatorship will not be allowed), "Bharat Mata Ki Jai" and "Jai Bheem, Jai Bharat." After the incident in Delhi, a team of Latur police visited his house in Zari village.
Shinde belongs to a Scheduled Caste community and is a BA graduate, said a police official based in Chakur. He did odd jobs as a daily wager while preparing for police and army recruitment exams, as per the preliminary information.
Shinde's two brothers and parents also work as daily wagers, he said, adding that one of the brothers works in Panvel near Mumbai.
His parents told police that Amol left home on December 9 saying he was going to Delhi for an army recruitment drive, the official said. As he had taken part in such recruitment drives earlier too, his parents did not find it unusual, the official added.
Shinde was not known to be affiliated to any political party or movement, he said.
The incident outside the Parliament building happened minutes after two people jumped into the Lok Sabha chamber from the public gallery and opened canisters that emitted a similar-coloured smoke, triggering panic among the MPs. The twin incidents came on a day when the nation is observing the anniversary of the 2001 Parliament attack.&nbsp;

Congress' Gaurav Gogoi in Lok Sabha: PM Modi 'maun rahe'.

Congress' Gaurav Gogoi in Lok Sabha: PM Modi 'maun rahe'

Congress' Gaurav Gogoi in Lok Sabha: PM Modi 'maun rahe'.

Congress politician Gaurav Gogoi, who opened the No-Trust debate on Tuesday, said that PM Narendra Modi took a "maun vrat" and did not speak in the parliament.&nbsp;
"We had to bring the No Confidence Motion to break his silence," he added.
The no-confidence motion debate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi&rsquo;s government is underway in the Lok Sabha. In the backdrop of the crucial parliamentary deliberation is the ethnic violence in Manipur. The motion was introduced by the Congress to elicit a response from Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Parliament on the situation in Lok Sabha.
The Modi government is now in its second term, with opposition parties forming the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) to prevent the ruling BJP-led NDA from coming to power for a third term under him.

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