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India's population will hit 1.46 billion by 2025, with a declining fertility rate. The young demographic offers economic potential if policies are optimized.

Indias Demographic Transformation by 2025

Projected to reach 1.46 billion by 2025, India's population is undergoing a demographic transformation. With declining fertility rates and a youthful workforce, the potential for economic prosperity is significant if policies are aligned with this dynamic demographic landscape.

India's population hits 1.46 billion, fertility falls

India to reach 1.46 billion by 2025. Declining fertility at 1.9 births per woman. Prominent youth demographic offers economic potential.

India's population is estimated to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, continuing to be the highest in the world, according to a new UN demographic report, which also revealed the country's total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement rate.
UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, The Real Fertility Crisis, calls for a shift from panic over falling fertility to addressing unmet reproductive goals.
Millions of people are not able to realise their real fertility goals, it asserts.
This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation, and the answer lies in greater reproductive agency&mdash;a person's ability to make free and informed 150 percent choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family, it says.
The report also reveals key shifts in population composition, fertility, and life expectancy, signaling a major demographic transition.
The report found that India's total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
This means that, on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration.
Despite the slowing birth rate, India's youth population remains significant, with 24 per cent in the age bracket of 0-14, 17 per cent in 10-19, and 26 per cent in 10-24.
The country's 68 per cent of the population is of working age (15-64), providing a potential demographic dividend, if matched by adequate employment and policy support.
The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at seven per cent, a figure that is expected to rise in the coming decades as life expectancy improves. As of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.
According to the UN estimates, India's population at present stands at 1,463.9 million.
India is now the world's most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people &ndash; a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins to fall, around 40 years from now, the report said.
Behind these numbers are the stories of millions of couples who decided to start or expand their families, as well as the stories of women who had few choices about whether, when or how often they became pregnant, the report said.
In 1960, when India's population was about 436 million, the average woman had nearly six children.
Back then, women had less control over their bodies and lives than they do today. Fewer than 1 in 4 used some form of contraception, and fewer than 1 in 2 attended primary school (World Bank Data, 2020), the report said.
But in the coming decades, educational attainment increased, access to reproductive healthcare improved, and more women gained a voice in the decisions that affected their lives. The average woman in India now has about two children.
While women in India, and every other country, have more rights and choices today than their mothers or grandmothers did, they still have a long way to go before they are empowered to have the number of children they want, if any, when they want them.
The UN report placed India in a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change, with population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.
"India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates&mdash;from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare," said Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.
"This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning millions more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups.
"The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to show how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together," she said.

Using a huge amount of global data on births, deaths and what drives fertility, the researchers tried to forecast the future for the world's population. 

Global fertility rate to keep plummeting: US study 

However, WHO experts urged caution, pointing out limitations of the research, particularly a lack of data from many developing nations. 

However, WHO experts urged caution, pointing out limitations of the research, particularly a lack of data from many developing nations.&nbsp;

The population of almost every country will be shrinking by the end of the century, a major study said Wednesday, warning that baby booms in developing nations and busts in rich ones will drive massive social change.
The fertility rate in half of all nations is already too low to maintain their population size, an international team of hundreds of researchers reported in The Lancet.
Using a huge amount of global data on births, deaths and what drives fertility, the researchers tried to forecast the future for the world's population.
By 2050, the population of three quarters of all countries will be shrinking, according to the study by the US-based Institute For Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
At the end of the century, that will be true for 97 percent -- or 198 out of 204 countries and territories, the researchers projected.
Only Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan are expected to have fertility rates exceeding the replacement level of 2.1 births per female in 2100, the study estimated.
During this century, fertility rates will continue to increase in developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, even as they tumble in wealthier, ageing nations.
"The world will be simultaneously tackling a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others," senior study author Stein Emil Vollset of the IHME said in a statement.
'Implications are immense'&nbsp; &nbsp; "We are facing staggering social change through the 21st century," he said in a statement.
IHME researcher Natalia Bhattacharjee said the "implications are immense".
"These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies," she said.
"Once nearly every country's population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth."
However World Health Organization experts urged caution for the projections.
They pointed out several limitations of the models, particularly a lack of data from many developing nations.
Communication about the figures "should not be sensationalised, but nuanced, balancing between gloom and optimism," the WHO experts wrote in The Lancet.
They also pointed out that there can be benefits of having a smaller population, such as for the environment and food security. But there are disadvantages for labour supply, social security and "nationalistic geopolitics".
Teresa Castro Martin, a researcher at the Spanish National Research Council not involved in the study, also emphasised that these are just projections.
She pointed out that the Lancet study predicts the global fertility rate will fall below replacement levels around 2030, "whereas the UN predicts this to occur around 2050".
The study was an update of the IHME's Global Burden of Disease study. The organisation, set up at the University of Washington by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has become a global reference for health statistics.

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