Brace yourself for power cuts and growth outlook cuts as China and India both face rising demand and falling coal supplies, which could lead to a potential supply shock. There is a looming shortage of coal in India as stockpiles hit a 4-year low and China has ordered slowing of coal based energy production based to meet carbon reduction goals.
Inventory of the black gold in India has fallen to the lowest since November 2017, data from the Central Electricity Authority showed. But, India isn’t alone in facing a fuel crisis. Buyers from the U.K to China are grappling with energy shortages as a rebound in demand outpaces supply. A revival in industrial activity as the threat of covid recedes has added demand pressure on already fragile supply system.
China is facing power issues on two fronts. Some provinces have ordered industrial cuts in order to meet emissions goals, while others are facing an actual lack of electricity as sky-high coal and natural gas costs cause generators to slow output amid high demand.
The shortage of power in China could lead to a economic shock as it would push prices of China made/exported goods more costly to world importers. Brokerages from Goldman to Nomura have stated to cut GDP targets for China sighting a potential power crisis.