Even as India aims to ramp up the vaccination drive across. the subcontinent it may not be fast enough to support a big growth revival as per Fitch Ratings' India arm India Ratings. The domestic debt rating firm on Thursday cut its FY22 gross domestic product growth estimate for India to 9.4 per cent from 9.6 per cent, saying the aim of vaccinating the entire adult population by year-end would not be met.
"Going by the pace of vaccination, it is now almost certain that India will not be able to vaccinate its entire adult population by December 31, 2021," it added further.
Muted wage growth, rise in health expenditure, and decline in household savings coupled with high consumer inflation are expected to weigh on consumption demand and hence, economic growth, it said.
The agency’s estimate suggests that 5.2 million daily doses would have to be administered from August 18, 2021 to vaccinate more than 88 per cent of the adult population by year-end as well as to administer single doses to the rest by March 31, 2021.
In the last two weeks, India has administered over 5.5 million doses daily, but this pace is unlikely to continue as many have raised concerns on vaccine availability as procurement numbers are not matching the doses required. India needs 188 crore doses to cover entire adult population. Taking in account for vaccine wastage the true requirement stands at over 200 crore doses. As per a Rajya Sabha response the govt currently has ordered only half that amount till the year end.