Saudi Arabia's crown prince warned in an interview to CBS's '60 Minutes', that oil prices could spike, and I quote, to "unimaginably high numbers" if the world does not

Oil may hit 'unimaginably high numbers', stop Iran: MBS

Saudi Arabia's crown prince warned in an interview to CBS's&nbsp;'60 Minutes', that oil prices could spike, and I quote, to "unimaginably high numbers" if the world does not come together to deter Iran. The crown prince clarified that&nbsp;he would prefer a political solution to a military one.
&nbsp;Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler said if action wasn't taken against Iran, oil supplies&nbsp;will be disrupted and&nbsp; prices would jump to levels we haven't seen in our lifetimes.
In September a drone attack, allegedly by Iran&nbsp;knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply from Saudi Aramco.&nbsp;

Saudi Arabia's crown prince warned in an interview to CBS's '60 Minutes', that oil prices could spike, and I quote, to "unimaginably high numbers" if the world does not come together to deter Iran. The crown prince clarified that he would prefer a political solution to a military one. Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler said if action wasn't taken against Iran, oil supplies will be disrupted and prices would jump to levels we haven't seen in our lifetimes. In September a drone attack, allegedly by Iran knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply from Saudi Aramco.

The retail inflation data is due on Wednesday and experts see CPI inflation moderating to 4.1% in April from 5.5% in March. Base effects are significantly favoura

Inflation at 3-month low is set to be the headline as the govt releases Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday for the month of April. Inflation is seen easing down to 4.1% vs the spike of 5.5% in March. But reality is sorely different than the math of inflation.&nbsp;
The pull on the numbers comes from an inflated high base effects from last year when the index shot up due to the unexpected lockdown. Now it will put a 150 basis points downward pressure on headline year-on-year inflation. Food inflation is expected to be lower at around 1.9% as against 4.9% in March, even though on a sequential basis prices of fruits, pulses and meat rose slightly.&nbsp;
However, the recent build-up in input costs, driven by high global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions, remains a major concern.
Meanwhile, WPI inflation, which will be released on Friday,&nbsp;may continue to move higher and is expected to register a reading of around 9.3% as against 7.4% in March amidst higher commodity prices.&nbsp;

As India continues to report record high covid cases and fatalities, brokerages and think tanks rework this years economic reality. IMF is now looking at redu

As India continues to report record-high covid&nbsp;cases and fatalities, brokerages and think tanks rework this year's economic reality. IMF&nbsp;is now looking at reducing India's growth projection from the optimistic 12.5% for this year.&nbsp;
"We're all watching what is happening in India with concern," IMF&nbsp;spokesperson&nbsp;Gerry Rice said. "There will be spillovers ... contingent on how deep and how long the severity of this crisis continues." S&amp;P ratings have already reworked India's growth projection to below the 10% mark along with brokerages such as UBS, Goldman Sachs.
India reported a record 4.12 lakh new COVID-19 cases on Thursday and a record 3,980 deaths, as the second wave of infections swamped its healthcare system.

The central bank is firing from all fronts to reduce the impact of the surging covid crisis on the economy. Speaking at an unscheduled press conference on Wednesda

The central bank is firing from all fronts to reduce the impact of the surging covid&nbsp;crisis on the economy. Speaking at an unscheduled press conference on Wednesday, RBI&nbsp;Governor laid out a slew of steps for &nbsp;Covid related healthcare services and also small businesses. Here are the highlights -:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>For Covid related healthcare services RBI will provide a liquidity window of Rs 50,000 crore.</li>
<li>Banks can new liquidity window for on-lending to hospitals, medicine, vaccine manufactures, importers of Covid related drugs</li>
<li>Banks can classify lending to health infra under priority sector lending:</li>
<li>Businesses that have availed restructuring last fiscal and opted for two year moratorium last year, can seek a longer moratorium and get their loans further extended</li>
<li>Loans up to Rs 25 crore, that have not been restructured earlier, can seek fresh restructuring up to September 2021.</li>
<li>Loans to MFIs will be recognised as priority sector.</li>
<li>RBI will give 3-year funds at repo rate (4%) to small finance banks through long-term repos for on-lending.</li>
<li>Banks have been allowed to use counter-cyclical provisions for making specific provisions for bad loans.</li>
</ul>

India's growth engine is starting to slow down again with covid cases continuing to spike. With barely new orders in the manufacturing side, growth of orders and p

India's growth engine is starting to slow down again with covid&nbsp;cases continuing to spike. With barely new orders in the manufacturing side, growth of orders and production saw the slowest growth in 8 months.&nbsp; India's manufacturing PMI remained at 55.5 mark in April which marks an expansion but also is the slowest rate of growth since September last year.&nbsp; Forecasters at IHS Markit that compile the data warned that "the surge in COVID-19 cases could dampen demand further when firms' financials are already susceptible to the hurdle of rising global prices."

Axis bank chief Amitabh Chaudhary has warned that bad loans may rise as collection for loans could start to slow due to localised lockdowns. “These

Axis bank chief Amitabh&nbsp;Chaudhary&nbsp;has warned that bad loans may rise as collection for loans could start to slow due to localised lockdowns.&nbsp;&ldquo;These are early days, but we do see an immediate business impact across segments," said Chaudhary.&nbsp; Meanwhile&nbsp;Finance Industry Development Council (FIDC) has also written to the RBI&nbsp;requesting extension of the restructuring scheme till March 31, 2022. The industry body urged the central bank to consider the recast as "the retail borrowers, including the MSMEs, as also the retail and wholesale trader industry shall be in urgent need of support from the lenders, to revive their economic activities."

Slumping business activity to outflows of funds, it's a Déjà Vu of March 2020 for business news headlines. Foreign investors have sold over $1.1

Slumping business activity to outflows of funds, it's a D&eacute;j&agrave; Vu of March 2020 for business news headlines.&nbsp;Foreign investors&nbsp;have sold over $1.1 billion worth of equities in April, the biggest outflow since March last year when the nation went into lockdown.&nbsp; Meanwhile brokerage house Nomura&nbsp;highlighted that business activity suffered its steepest weekly fall in over a year and also warned that with more states extending restrictions, sequential momentum is likely to remain weak over the next month.&nbsp;

The central bank is raising red flag alerts on price rise due to localised lockdowns. The RBI in it's monthly bulletin stated "The resurgence in Covid-19, if not contai

The central bank is raising red flag alerts on price rise due to localised lockdowns. The RBI in it's monthly bulletin stated "The resurgence in Covid-19, if not contained in time, risks protracted restrictions and disruptions in supply chains with consequent inflationary pressures." This comes at a time when wholesale price inflation is already at a 8-year high.&nbsp; The bosses at mint street also said &ldquo;Pandemic protocols, speedier vaccination, ramping up hospital and ancillary capacity, and remaining resolutely focused on a post pandemic future is the way forward.&rdquo;&nbsp;

Fear of extending lockdowns is leading to cash withdrawals at a faster pace, the currency held by public jumpers by over Rs 30,000 cr for the 2-week period en

Fear of extending lockdowns&nbsp;is leading to cash withdrawals&nbsp;at a faster pace, the currency held by the public jumped by over ₹30,000 crore for the 2-week period ended April 9, as per RBI&nbsp;data. This jump is equal to the withdrawal number for the two months of December and January combined. Cash holding with the public now is at a record high of ₹27.8 lakh&nbsp;crore.&nbsp; A rise in uncertainties over Covid&nbsp;is leading to the people preferring cash, the same phenomena was observed between March and June 2020 when people withdrew cash heavily as dependence on cash transactions rose.

Recent surge in coronavirus cases poses increasing downside risks to the FY22 outlook stated ratings agency Fitch maintaining it's 'BBB-' sovereign rating with a n

Recent surge in coronavirus cases poses increasing downside risks to the FY22 outlook stated ratings agency Fitch maintaining it's&nbsp;'BBB-' sovereign rating with a negative outlook.&nbsp; Fitch expects&nbsp;GDP growth of 12.8% in FY22, moderating sharply to 5.8% in FY23.
Sounding cautious the rating agency stated.&nbsp;&ldquo;The medium-term debt trajectory is core to our rating assessment, as higher debt levels constrain the government&rsquo;s ability to respond to future shocks and could lead to a crowding out of financing for the private sector."
Fitch however did state that the second wave of virus cases may delay the recovery, but is unlikely to derail it.
&nbsp;

Finance Ministry via a notification has removed quarterly/monthly spending curbs on capital expenditures that were imposed on ministries in 2017. The move will hop

Finance Ministry via a notification has removed quarterly/monthly spending curbs on capital expenditures that were imposed on ministries in 2017.&nbsp; The move will hopefully lead to higher capital expenditure by the govt aiming to crowd in private investment.The Reserve Bank of India estimates that every one rupee spent by the Central government will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by over Rs 3.&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;target by brokerages are being lowered closer to 10% mark as localised lockdowns&nbsp;continue to hit industry and services.&nbsp;

While Nomura has downgraded projections of economic growth for the fiscal year ending March 2022 to 12.6 per cent from 13.5 per cent earlier, JP Morgan now projects GDP

As fresh Covid&nbsp;cases continue to spike over 2.5 lakhs daily the bets on India continue to decline with brokerages cutting their growth projections across the board.&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>UBS&nbsp;expects the current mobility restrictions to remain in place until end-May has cut it's growth expectation lower to below even the RBI's estimate at 10% vs 11.5%.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Citigroup&nbsp;now sees the current year's growth 50 bps lower at 11.5% mostly led down by private consumption and services.&nbsp;</li>
<li>JPMorgan&nbsp;has made the biggest cut , projecting the GDP&nbsp;growth now&nbsp; down 200 bps to 11% from their original&nbsp;13% bet.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;As daily new cases double of last peak in September 2020 brokerages also warn that if the situation does not ease by mid may there could be a period of multiple growth revisions like in last year.

China’s Q1 GDP jumped a record 18.3% in the Jan-April quarter vs 6.2% in the previous quarter. The rise is the highest since 1992 at least as per

China&rsquo;s Q1 GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;jumped a record 18.3% in the Jan-April&nbsp;quarter vs 6.2% in the previous quarter. The rise is the highest since 1992 at least as per official data. The reading however was still a notch below the 19% markets were expecting.
The figures are inflated due to a very low base last year due the pandemic lockdown.In other economic data Industrial output rose 14.1% in March missing projection of 18%, while retail sales expanded 34.2% in March, beating expectations of a 28% gain
&nbsp;

Goldman Sachs has downgraded India's growth targets for the coming year due to economic uncertainty from Covid resurgence . The Wall Street brokerage has

Goldman Sachs has downgraded India's growth targets for the coming year due to economic&nbsp;uncertainty&nbsp;from Covid&nbsp;resurgence . The Wall Street brokerage has cut the full year forecast to 10.5% from 10.9% earlier.&nbsp; The growth slowdown is hitting earnings and market outlook as well. Goldman Sachs expects Nifty to reach 16,300 by December, down from the earlier forecast of 16,500, which implies only about 14% upside in rupee terms. Earlier this week Nomura&nbsp;as well cut India's growth forecast from 12.5% to 11.5% and cited inflationary concerns on localised lockdowns.

British brokerage Barclays said localised lockdowns also could cost the economy over $1.25 billion per week. The report also states that if the restrictions across

British brokerage Barclays said localised lockdowns&nbsp;also could cost the economy over $1.25 billion per week. The report also states that if the restrictions across key economic states continue till end of May the total hit could be over $10 billion. Economists note that the increasing restrictions and night curfews across key economic hubs on a quarterly basis could shave off 140 bps in the April-June GDP&nbsp;number.&nbsp; Maharastra's&nbsp;role in the economic hit will remain the highest as it contributes nearly 15% to the nation's GDP.

Retail price rise picked up pace in March, Headline CPI rose to 5.5% in March from 5% in February. This marks a 4-month high for the retail prices. The pick u

Retail price rise picked up pace in March, Headline CPI rose to 5.5%&nbsp;in March from 5% in February. This marks a 4-month high for the retail prices.&nbsp; The pick up in inflation came from&nbsp;higher than anticipated uptick in food and fuel prices.&nbsp;&nbsp;Food inflation accelerated to 4.9% YoY in March mainly due to higher price of edible oil, fruits and meat.&nbsp; Industrial production for the month of February contracted&nbsp;3.6% YoY in February vs. -0.9% in January. This contraction however was anticipated given a higher base from last year.&nbsp;

Economists are going back to the drawing board on the GDP forecast as the strong resurgence of Covid could put brakes on the countries growth path. At $300 bn Maharasht

What is the economic impact of the infection epicentre, here is why Maharashtra&nbsp;matters in numbers -: 56,000: The daily rate of new Covid&nbsp;infections in the state&nbsp;
60%: Contribution to the national tally of Covid&nbsp;cases&nbsp;
$300 bn: The annual GDP&nbsp;of Maharashtra&nbsp;
14.2%: Contribution to India's GDP, largest among all states&nbsp;
5%: Mumbai's&nbsp;contribution alone to India's GDP Rs 4 lk cr: Annual turnover of Mumbai's&nbsp;service sector Rs 16,000 cr: Loss estimated in a month for Mumbai's&nbsp;service sector Rs 40,000 cr: The economic dent estimated by Care Ratings of 1-month lockdown&nbsp;in Maharashtra&nbsp;
30 bps: The immediate downside in India's GDP&nbsp;from Maharashtra&nbsp;lockdown
&nbsp;

RBI is geared to support the economy till recovery stabilises, Here are the top 10 announcements you should take note of -: RBI has kept rates at rec

RBI&nbsp;is geared to support the economy till recovery stabilises, Here are the top 10 announcements you should take note of -:&nbsp;
<ol>
<li>RBI&nbsp;has kept rates at record low, removes time based guidelines but assures that policy will remain accommodative&nbsp;till growth stabilises&nbsp; </li>
<li>RBI&nbsp;has maintained GDP&nbsp;outlook for 10.5% growth for this year but raised concerns on recovery as localised lockdowns&nbsp;could hurt supply. &nbsp;</li>
<li>Inflation outlook for April-October has been raised t 5.2% vs 5.0%, but this forecast will alter as per monsoon movement.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Customers of payment banks allowed to hold balances up to Rs 2 lakh as against Rs 1 lakh earlier &nbsp;</li>
<li>RBI has allowed fintech cos, payment companies to be a part of centralised payment systems - RTGS and NEFT</li>
<li>RBI&nbsp;backs the idea of adding fuel to the GST&nbsp;pack, says coordinated effort by state-centre can reduce tax pressure on fuel prices </li>
<li>Big move for bond markets, central bank announced&nbsp;Government Security Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) </li>
<li>RBI to buy Rs 1 lakh crore of G-Sec under G-SAP&nbsp;from April-June</li>
<li>First purchase of Rs 25,000 crore&nbsp;of g-secs will be done on April 15.</li>
<li>Priority sector lending norms eased for agriculture and warehousing services. </li>
</ol>

The covid surge is set to delay the recovery in the economy and indicators are already coming in. Factory output as measured by the manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month low

The covid surge is set to delay the recovery in the economy and indicators are already coming in. Factory output as measured by the manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month low in March.
 The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers&rsquo;&nbsp;Index&nbsp;of 55.4 last month from February's 57.5, even though for the last 8 months the index indicates an expansion, the pace of growth is slowing.&nbsp;
 IHS Markit that compiles the index highlighted that with COVID-19 restrictions expanded and lockdown measures re-introduced in many states, Indian manufacturers look set to experience a challenging month in April.

India imported a record 160 tonnes of gold in March as per a report on Reuters. This marks a 471% surge on a year-on-year basis for the yellow metal's import data.

India imported a record 160 tonnes of gold in March as per a report on Reuters. This marks a 471% surge on a year-on-year basis for the yellow metal's import data.&nbsp;
In value terms Reuters&nbsp;reports , March imports surged to $8.4 billion from $1.23 billion a year ago, as per govt sources.&nbsp;
For the Jan-March quarter told gold import stood at 321 tonnes up 191% from 124 tonnes a year ago
Experts cite dropping prices as big boost to demand, gold is down&nbsp;17% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020. India has also cut import duty in March for the yellow metal.
&nbsp;

As the curtain comes down on FY'21 a slew of data flooded in as well, here is a quick snapshot of the state of the economy. Core Industries output shrunk at th

As the curtain comes down on FY'21 a slew of data flooded in as well, here is a quick snapshot of the state of the economy.&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Core Industries output shrunk at the fastest pace in six months in February as all 8 key sectors saw contraction on year-on-year basis. For April-Feb core sectors contracted 8.3%</li>
<li>Fiscal deficit for the first 11 months of FY21 has come in below the Govt's&nbsp;revised estimates. At Rs 14.05 lakh crore&nbsp;it is 76% of the of revised estimates.</li>
<li>April-February, gross tax revenues are 0.7% below the collections seen in the same period in FY'20.</li>
<li>Inflation target has been maintained in the same band of 2%-6% for the next five years.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Meanwhile the World Bank has raised India's growth outlook they see FY'22 GDP at 7.5%-12.5% range but hinge it entirely on how fast the vaccination drive is undertaken and the global recovery trend.&nbsp;

Oil may hit 'unimaginably high numbers', stop Iran: MBS

Economy

Inflation set to ease, but is it just optics?

IMF gears to slash India's growth outlook as recovery gets derailed

RBI's Covid fight plan: Funds for healthcare, support to small biz and borrowers

Economy hit Déjà vu, factory orders rise at slowest rates in 8 months

Top bankers to small lenders warn of bad loans, Urge RBI to extend recast scheme

Foreign investors pull out $1 billion from equities as India sees record covid cases

Your monthly grocery bill is set to soar higher; RBI raises the inflation alarm

Rush for cash as Covid uncertainty continues; withdrawals top ₹30,000 crore in two weeks

Fitch: India outlook remains negative due to Covid surge

Finance Ministry eases spending limits in hope to fuel economy

Economy in need of oxygen as brokerages downgrade bets on India for FY'22

China grows at record pace in Jan-April, Q1 GDP clocks in 18.3%

Goldman Sachs, Nomura cut growth targets on Covid uncertainties

The lockdown math, economists peg hit at $1.25 billion a week

Inflation accelerated further to a four-month high, Industrial production contracts

Why Maharashtra matters, the economic impact of the infection epicentre

Top 10 things from the RBI meet that you need to take note of

Covid lockdown set to delay recovery, PMI clocks in at 7 month low

India's greed for gold surges in March, imports up 471% to a record 160 tonnes

The Economy Wrap: Fiscal deficit, inflation target and contracting core sector

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