The covid surge is set to delay the recovery in the economy and indicators are already coming in. Factory output as measured by the manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month low

Covid lockdown set to delay recovery, PMI clocks in at 7 month low

The covid surge is set to delay the recovery in the economy and indicators are already coming in. Factory output as measured by the manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month low in March.
 The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers&rsquo;&nbsp;Index&nbsp;of 55.4 last month from February's 57.5, even though for the last 8 months the index indicates an expansion, the pace of growth is slowing.&nbsp;
 IHS Markit that compiles the index highlighted that with COVID-19 restrictions expanded and lockdown measures re-introduced in many states, Indian manufacturers look set to experience a challenging month in April.

The covid surge is set to delay the recovery in the economy and indicators are already coming in. Factory output as measured by the manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month low in March. The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of 55.4 last month from February's 57.5, even though for the last 8 months the index indicates an expansion, the pace of growth is slowing. IHS Markit that compiles the index highlighted that with COVID-19 restrictions expanded and lockdown measures re-introduced in many states, Indian manufacturers look set to experience a challenging month in April.

While Nomura has downgraded projections of economic growth for the fiscal year ending March 2022 to 12.6 per cent from 13.5 per cent earlier, JP Morgan now projects GDP

As fresh Covid&nbsp;cases continue to spike over 2.5 lakhs daily the bets on India continue to decline with brokerages cutting their growth projections across the board.&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>UBS&nbsp;expects the current mobility restrictions to remain in place until end-May has cut it's growth expectation lower to below even the RBI's estimate at 10% vs 11.5%.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Citigroup&nbsp;now sees the current year's growth 50 bps lower at 11.5% mostly led down by private consumption and services.&nbsp;</li>
<li>JPMorgan&nbsp;has made the biggest cut , projecting the GDP&nbsp;growth now&nbsp; down 200 bps to 11% from their original&nbsp;13% bet.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;As daily new cases double of last peak in September 2020 brokerages also warn that if the situation does not ease by mid may there could be a period of multiple growth revisions like in last year.

China’s Q1 GDP jumped a record 18.3% in the Jan-April quarter vs 6.2% in the previous quarter. The rise is the highest since 1992 at least as per

China&rsquo;s Q1 GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;jumped a record 18.3% in the Jan-April&nbsp;quarter vs 6.2% in the previous quarter. The rise is the highest since 1992 at least as per official data. The reading however was still a notch below the 19% markets were expecting.
The figures are inflated due to a very low base last year due the pandemic lockdown.In other economic data Industrial output rose 14.1% in March missing projection of 18%, while retail sales expanded 34.2% in March, beating expectations of a 28% gain
&nbsp;

Goldman Sachs has downgraded India's growth targets for the coming year due to economic uncertainty from Covid resurgence . The Wall Street brokerage has

Goldman Sachs has downgraded India's growth targets for the coming year due to economic&nbsp;uncertainty&nbsp;from Covid&nbsp;resurgence . The Wall Street brokerage has cut the full year forecast to 10.5% from 10.9% earlier.&nbsp; The growth slowdown is hitting earnings and market outlook as well. Goldman Sachs expects Nifty to reach 16,300 by December, down from the earlier forecast of 16,500, which implies only about 14% upside in rupee terms. Earlier this week Nomura&nbsp;as well cut India's growth forecast from 12.5% to 11.5% and cited inflationary concerns on localised lockdowns.

British brokerage Barclays said localised lockdowns also could cost the economy over $1.25 billion per week. The report also states that if the restrictions across

British brokerage Barclays said localised lockdowns&nbsp;also could cost the economy over $1.25 billion per week. The report also states that if the restrictions across key economic states continue till end of May the total hit could be over $10 billion. Economists note that the increasing restrictions and night curfews across key economic hubs on a quarterly basis could shave off 140 bps in the April-June GDP&nbsp;number.&nbsp; Maharastra's&nbsp;role in the economic hit will remain the highest as it contributes nearly 15% to the nation's GDP.

Retail price rise picked up pace in March, Headline CPI rose to 5.5% in March from 5% in February. This marks a 4-month high for the retail prices. The pick u

Retail price rise picked up pace in March, Headline CPI rose to 5.5%&nbsp;in March from 5% in February. This marks a 4-month high for the retail prices.&nbsp; The pick up in inflation came from&nbsp;higher than anticipated uptick in food and fuel prices.&nbsp;&nbsp;Food inflation accelerated to 4.9% YoY in March mainly due to higher price of edible oil, fruits and meat.&nbsp; Industrial production for the month of February contracted&nbsp;3.6% YoY in February vs. -0.9% in January. This contraction however was anticipated given a higher base from last year.&nbsp;

Economists are going back to the drawing board on the GDP forecast as the strong resurgence of Covid could put brakes on the countries growth path. At $300 bn Maharasht

What is the economic impact of the infection epicentre, here is why Maharashtra&nbsp;matters in numbers -: 56,000: The daily rate of new Covid&nbsp;infections in the state&nbsp;
60%: Contribution to the national tally of Covid&nbsp;cases&nbsp;
$300 bn: The annual GDP&nbsp;of Maharashtra&nbsp;
14.2%: Contribution to India's GDP, largest among all states&nbsp;
5%: Mumbai's&nbsp;contribution alone to India's GDP Rs 4 lk cr: Annual turnover of Mumbai's&nbsp;service sector Rs 16,000 cr: Loss estimated in a month for Mumbai's&nbsp;service sector Rs 40,000 cr: The economic dent estimated by Care Ratings of 1-month lockdown&nbsp;in Maharashtra&nbsp;
30 bps: The immediate downside in India's GDP&nbsp;from Maharashtra&nbsp;lockdown
&nbsp;

RBI is geared to support the economy till recovery stabilises, Here are the top 10 announcements you should take note of -: RBI has kept rates at rec

RBI&nbsp;is geared to support the economy till recovery stabilises, Here are the top 10 announcements you should take note of -:&nbsp;
<ol>
<li>RBI&nbsp;has kept rates at record low, removes time based guidelines but assures that policy will remain accommodative&nbsp;till growth stabilises&nbsp; </li>
<li>RBI&nbsp;has maintained GDP&nbsp;outlook for 10.5% growth for this year but raised concerns on recovery as localised lockdowns&nbsp;could hurt supply. &nbsp;</li>
<li>Inflation outlook for April-October has been raised t 5.2% vs 5.0%, but this forecast will alter as per monsoon movement.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Customers of payment banks allowed to hold balances up to Rs 2 lakh as against Rs 1 lakh earlier &nbsp;</li>
<li>RBI has allowed fintech cos, payment companies to be a part of centralised payment systems - RTGS and NEFT</li>
<li>RBI&nbsp;backs the idea of adding fuel to the GST&nbsp;pack, says coordinated effort by state-centre can reduce tax pressure on fuel prices </li>
<li>Big move for bond markets, central bank announced&nbsp;Government Security Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) </li>
<li>RBI to buy Rs 1 lakh crore of G-Sec under G-SAP&nbsp;from April-June</li>
<li>First purchase of Rs 25,000 crore&nbsp;of g-secs will be done on April 15.</li>
<li>Priority sector lending norms eased for agriculture and warehousing services. </li>
</ol>

India imported a record 160 tonnes of gold in March as per a report on Reuters. This marks a 471% surge on a year-on-year basis for the yellow metal's import data.

India imported a record 160 tonnes of gold in March as per a report on Reuters. This marks a 471% surge on a year-on-year basis for the yellow metal's import data.&nbsp;
In value terms Reuters&nbsp;reports , March imports surged to $8.4 billion from $1.23 billion a year ago, as per govt sources.&nbsp;
For the Jan-March quarter told gold import stood at 321 tonnes up 191% from 124 tonnes a year ago
Experts cite dropping prices as big boost to demand, gold is down&nbsp;17% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020. India has also cut import duty in March for the yellow metal.
&nbsp;

NASA recently discovered 16 Psyche or Psyche 16 asteroid using the Hubble Telescope. If the estimates are correct this metal and nickel asteroid could be valued more

NASA recently discovered 16 Psyche or Psyche 16 asteroid using the Hubble Telescope. If the estimates are correct this metal and nickel asteroid could be valued more the $10,000 Quadrillion, more than the economy of all the countries on the earth combined.
NASA has also launched Psyche mission which will see a spacecraft visiting the 16 Psyche asteroid's orbit by 2026, this mission maybe similar to one NASA carried on the Bennu asteroid recently. The Psyche 16 is located inside the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

As the curtain comes down on FY'21 a slew of data flooded in as well, here is a quick snapshot of the state of the economy. Core Industries output shrunk at th

As the curtain comes down on FY'21 a slew of data flooded in as well, here is a quick snapshot of the state of the economy.&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Core Industries output shrunk at the fastest pace in six months in February as all 8 key sectors saw contraction on year-on-year basis. For April-Feb core sectors contracted 8.3%</li>
<li>Fiscal deficit for the first 11 months of FY21 has come in below the Govt's&nbsp;revised estimates. At Rs 14.05 lakh crore&nbsp;it is 76% of the of revised estimates.</li>
<li>April-February, gross tax revenues are 0.7% below the collections seen in the same period in FY'20.</li>
<li>Inflation target has been maintained in the same band of 2%-6% for the next five years.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Meanwhile the World Bank has raised India's growth outlook they see FY'22 GDP at 7.5%-12.5% range but hinge it entirely on how fast the vaccination drive is undertaken and the global recovery trend.&nbsp;

Reports indicate that in a big push towards ‘Make in India” the Modi-Govt is set to offer $1 billion in cash to each semiconductor company that sets up

Reports indicate that in a big push towards &lsquo;Make in India&rdquo; the Modi-Govt is set to offer&nbsp;$1 billion in cash to each semiconductor company that sets up manufacturing units in the country.
The incentive comes as there is a global chip shortage has hit everyone from makers of laptops smartphone to even kitchen appliances.
A senior govt official has told Reuters that the&nbsp;govt will assure the manufacturer that the government will be a buyer and there will also be mandates in the private market.

Despite giving the banks over 20 months to prepare for the new norms for auto-debit of payments, the large scale of non-compliance has led to the RBI extending the

Despite giving the banks over 20 months to prepare for the new norms for auto-debit of payments, the large scale of non-compliance has led to the RBI&nbsp;extending the timeline&nbsp;of implementation by 6 months.&nbsp;
Starting April 1, a customer's e-mandate transactions for&nbsp;bill payments and subscription renewals needed to be given approval by the customer to remain active. Auto-initiated payments for mobile phone, broadband, DTH, electricity, water and other utilities bill were likely to be impacted the most. However the banks were largely still unprepared for this which would have out the payment mechanisms at a complete standstill. Noting the gap the central bank has extended the timeline&nbsp;to September 30 but also added a warning.&nbsp; The RBI&nbsp;stated&nbsp;"Any further delay in ensuring complete adherence to the framework beyond the extended timeline will attract stringent supervisory action."
&nbsp;

India's inflation is "uncomfortably high” that’s the concern being raised by Moody’s Analytics as it sums up the price rise trend in Asia. The

India's inflation is "uncomfortably high&rdquo; that&rsquo;s the concern being raised by Moody&rsquo;s Analytics as it sums up the price rise trend in Asia.&nbsp;
The Moody&rsquo;s unit states in it&rsquo;s latest report &ldquo;&nbsp;&ldquo;India&rsquo;s inflation is worrisome. Higher fuel prices will keep upward pressure on headline&nbsp;Consumer Price Index&nbsp;(CPI) and keep the reserve Bank of India (RBI) from offering further rate cuts,"
Volatile food prices and rising oil prices led Indiaʼs CPI to exceed the upper band of 6% several times in 2020. Retail inflation in February clocked in at a 3-month high of 5.3%
The RBI&nbsp;has a target for maintaining retail ination at 4 per cent &nbsp;(+/- 2 per cent)

Rs 1.75 lakh crore is an achievable divestment target for the coming fiscal, that's the word coming in from govt that is banking on the mega LIC IPO in F

Rs 1.75 lakh crore&nbsp;is an achievable divestment target for the coming fiscal, that's the word coming in from govt that is banking on the mega LIC&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;in FY'22.
India's Chief Economic Adviser speaking at a virtual confrence&nbsp;said, "There are estimates suggesting Rs 75,000-80,000 crore or even higher can just come from the privatisation of BPCL itself. LIC IPO could bring in Rs 1 trillion approximate"
The LIC&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;are on track with the govt passing amendments in the LIC Act&nbsp; through the Finance Bill 2021 in Parliament.
&nbsp;

As the Govt clears the path for the amega infrastructure push with a development financial institution (DFI) , this is what you need to know. The DFI

As the Govt clears the path for a&nbsp;mega&nbsp;infrastructure push with a&nbsp;development financial institution (DFI) , this is what you need to know.
<ol>
<li>The DFI&nbsp;has been set up to fill the gaps in large infrastructure funding needs.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The DFI&nbsp;will be set up with an initial corpus of Rs 20,000 cr and will be scaled up to Rs 3 lakh&nbsp;crore&nbsp;</li>
<li>The government will give Rs 5,000 crore as grant to the institution</li>
<li>Govt will hold 100% initially but is willing to sell 26% stake over time.&nbsp;</li>
<li>DFI&nbsp;will be managed by a professional board.</li>
<li>The institute will be backed by the sovereign, giving it access to cheaper funds</li>
<li>Govt to give 10-year tax exemption to funds invested in the DFI&nbsp;</li>
<li>DFI&nbsp;isn't a new concept ICICI, IDBI&nbsp;started out as DFI's&nbsp;to finally be full banks.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Govt to choose between 7,000 projects for funding via DFI</li>
<li>Even at Rs 3 lakh&nbsp;crore&nbsp;it covers only 3% of the Rs 111 lk crore&nbsp;infra pipeline</li>
</ol>

As the nation-wide bank strike enters day 2 the finance minister has reassuring words for the 10 lakh PSU bank employees protesting privatisation. Fina

As the nation-wide bank strike enters day 2 the finance minister has reassuring words for the 10 lakh&nbsp;PSU&nbsp;bank employees protesting privatisation.&nbsp;
Finance Minister reiterated that the Govt will ensure that the interest of all public sector bank employees will be safeguarded through the process of privatising.&nbsp;
Justifying the push towards privatisation, FM said the country needs many more banks the size of SBI&nbsp;to meet the needs of the country.&nbsp;

All eyes will move to the US Federal Reserve for it's 2-day meet starting Tuesday. The central bank will released new economic and interest rate forecasts o

All eyes will move to the US Federal Reserve for it's 2-day meet starting Tuesday.&nbsp;
The central bank will released&nbsp;new economic and interest rate forecasts on Wednesday which is expected to show Fed inclined to raise rates only by 2023.&nbsp;
The press conference will be critical for commentary of yields as the&nbsp;10-year yield,&nbsp;which influences mortgage rates and other loans, has risen from 1.07% to a one year high of 1.64%.

After the Consumer Price Inflation clocked in at a 3-month high the Wholesale Price Inflation is adding to the price rise concerns surging to 4.17% in February .&n

After the Consumer Price Inflation clocked in at a 3-month high the Wholesale Price Inflation is adding to the price rise concerns surging to&nbsp;4.17% in February making it a 27 month high for the Index.&nbsp;
Inflation (WPI) on the rise-:
<ul>
<li>February: 4.17%</li>
<li>January: 2.03%</li>
<li>December:&nbsp;1.95% (Revised Higher)</li>
</ul>
Food Inflation has seen a sharp rise to 3.31% in February vs&nbsp;-0.26% in January. Pulses and onion prices have seen steep increase in prices.&nbsp; Fuel and power index added to the pressure as expected with rising crude prices coming in higher.&nbsp;

India's forex reserves at $580.3 billion are now the 4th largest in the world. Even though for the week ended March 5 India's reserves fell by $4.3 billion,

India's forex reserves at $580.3 billion are now the 4th largest in the world.&nbsp;
Even though for the week ended March 5 India's reserves fell by&nbsp;$4.3 billion, the slide in Russia's reserves were steeper to edge India up to the 4th rank in reserve holdings.&nbsp; India's reserves currently covers over 18 months of imports.&nbsp;
China tops the reserve holdings with a total of $3.2 trillion
&nbsp;

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