While addressing a conference of bank directors, RBI governor highlighted specific instances where banks used 'innovative methods' to conceal the real status of stressed assets. 

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das red flags governance gaps in certain banks 

While addressing a conference of bank directors, RBI governor highlighted specific instances where banks used 'innovative methods' to conceal the real status of stressed assets.&nbsp;

Reserve Bank of India's governor Shaktikanta Das has raised concerns over governance gaps in certain banks despite there being clear guidelines in place for corporate governance.&nbsp;
The governor was addressing directors of banks at a conference organised by the Reserve Bank of India. Pointing out that such gaps have the potential to cause volatility in the overall banking sector, the governor said&nbsp; "It is essential that boards and managements do not allow such gaps to creep in."&nbsp;
Das said that the central bank discovered several instances during the RBI's supervisory procedure when creative methods were employed to hide the true situation of stressed loans.
"To mention a few, such methods include bringing two lenders together to evergreen each other&rsquo;s loans by sale and buyback of loans or debt instruments; good borrowers being persuaded to enter into structured deals with a stressed borrower to conceal the stress," said Das.
Das further said: "We have also come across a few examples where one method of evergreening, after being pointed out by the regulator, was replaced by another method."
The governor also emphasised that bank board members should not have any conflicts of interest that could impair their independence and objectivity.
"It is the responsibility of the Board to ensure that policies are in place to identify potential conflicts of interest and deal with them," Das said.

The benchmark Sensex and Nifty market indices increased on Monday for a third straight day. BSE Sensex climbed 344.69 points and NSE Nifty gained 99.30 points

 Markets end on a strong note, Bank Nifty at record high

The benchmark Sensex and Nifty market indices increased on Monday for a third straight day. BSE Sensex climbed 344.69 points and NSE Nifty gained 99.30 points

Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty rose for a third straight day on Monday amid positive trends in the US markets and continuous foreign fund inflows.
The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 344.69 points or 0.55 per cent to settle at 62,846.38. During the day, it jumped 524.31 points or 0.83 per cent to 63,026.
The NSE Nifty gained 99.30 points or 0.54 per cent to end at 18,598.65.
From the Sensex pack, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra climbed 3.71 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent jump in its consolidated profit for the March quarter and the highest-ever annual profit of Rs 10,282 crore in FY23.
Titan, Tata Steel, HDFC, UltraTech Cement, State Bank of India, ITC, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finserv were the other major gainers.
HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Maruti, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Hindustan Unilever were the laggards.
Meanwhile, global oil benchmark Brent crude dipped 0.17 per cent to USD 76.82 a barrel.

Upon RBI's decision to withdraw ₹2,000 banknotes, finance minster said that the notes had reached their lifespan

Nirmala Sitharaman on ₹2,000 banknote withdrawal 

On RBI's decision to withdraw ₹2,000 banknotes, finance minster said that the notes had reached their lifespan

On ₹2,000 banknote withdrawal, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said 'Even by lifespan calculation, the currency notes's lifespan has been reached and hence RBI has decided to withdraw them'. FM also said that these decisions are taken by the RBI.
'The RBI has achieved its motive here, Opposition can say what it wants. Introduction of Rs 2,000 notes was an attempt of remonetisation,' said Sitharaman at a press conference on 9 years of Modi government in Mumbai.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced on May 19 that it is removing ₹2,000 notes from circulation. The RBI stated in a release that the ₹2,000 banknotes will still be accepted as legal money.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recommended the general people to deposit&nbsp; &nbsp;₹2,000 banknotes into their accounts or exchange them for notes of other denominations at any bank branch.
'Deposit into bank accounts can be made in the usual manner, that is, without restrictions and subject to extant instructions and other applicable statutory provisions,' RBI stated in a release.
Reacting to Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram's remark on ₹2,000 banknote withdrawal as a 'foolish decision', Sitharaman said 'He has been in the (FM) office. He should not make frivolous statements and understand the process'
The RBI further stated that beginning on May 23, 2023, any bank will be able to exchange &nbsp;₹2,000 banknotes into notes of other denominations up to a ceiling of &nbsp;₹20,000 at a time in order to maintain operational convenience and prevent disruption of regular activities of bank branches.
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Twitter quits after a new law called the Digital Services Act was introduced which will be effective from August. The law makes it mandatory for all social media sites to monitor and flag disinformation

Elon Musk's twitter quits EU disinformation code

Twitter quits after a new law called the Digital Services Act was introduced which will be effective from August. The law makes it mandatory for all social media sites to monitor and flag disinformation

Twitter has decided to leave the EU's disinformation code, a voluntary pact that groups together the major social platforms, but "its obligations remain," EU Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton tweeted Saturday.
This after, new law called the Digital Services Act was introduced. This will be effective from August and is mandatory for social media sites to monitor and flag disinformation, which was voluntary before.
Launched in 2018, the EU's code of practice on disinformation counts nearly three dozen signatories including the giants in the sector such as Meta, Google, Twitter, Microsoft and TikTok.
It also covers smaller platforms, as well as advertisers and fact-checkers and non-governmental organisations.
The code was written by the industry players themselves and contains over three dozen pledges such as better cooperation with fact-checkers and not promoting actors distributing disinformation.
"You can run but you can't hide. Beyond voluntary commitments, fighting disinformation will be legal obligation under DSA (digital services law) as of August 25," he wrote.
"Our teams will be ready for enforcement," he warned.
Since buying the social network six months ago, billionaire Elon Musk has relaxed the moderation of problematic content, which appears to have amplified the voices of notorious propagators of disinformation on the platform.
"If (Elon Musk) doesn't take the code seriously, then it's better that he quits," a European Commission official had told AFP on Friday.

Ashwini Upadhyay argued that the RBI and SBI's notifications allowing the exchange ₹2,000 notes without ID are arbitrary, illogical, and violate Article 14 of the Indian Constitution

PIL challenging the exchange of ₹2,000 banknotes without ID proof dismissed by the Delhi HC

Ashwini Upadhyay argued that the RBI and SBI's notifications allowing the exchange ₹2,000 notes without ID are arbitrary, irrational and violate Article 14 of the Indian Constitution

The Delhi High Court dismissed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) challenging the ability to exchange ₹2,000 banknotes without a demand slip and identification documentation on May 29
Attorney Ashwini Upadhyay filed the petition on May 23 arguing that the RBI and SBI's notifications in this matter are arbitrary, irrational and in violation of Article 14 of the Indian Constitution.&nbsp;
Senior attorney Parag Tripathi, who spoke on behalf of the RBI, asked the panel to reject the claim on the grounds that the SC constitution bench has repeatedly reaffirmed its inability to intervene with the country's economic policies.
Tripathi added that the removal of ₹2,000 notes is not the result of demonetisation but rather a statutory procedure and is not a matter of public concern.
After hearing from all parties, the bench dismissed Upadhyay's PIL.
According to Upadhyay's appeal, a significant portion of the money has either found its way into someone's locker or has 'been hoarded by the separatists, terrorists, Maoists, drug smugglers, mining mafias &amp; corrupt people.'
&nbsp;

Addressing a press conference here, the former Union finance minister said the key economic indicators are pointing downward and there is low confidence that the economy will reach the high growth path

₹2,000 note Introduction & withdrawal cast doubt on India's currency integrity, stability: Chidambaram

Addressing a press conference here, the former Union finance minister said the key economic indicators are pointing downward and there is low confidence that the economy will reach the high growth path

Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Monday said the introduction of Rs 2,000 note and its subsequent withdrawal have cast doubt on the integrity and stability of the Indian currency.
Addressing a press conference here, the former Union finance minister said the key economic indicators are pointing downward and there is low confidence that the economy will reach the high growth path.
He also said the situation in Manipur, where recent ethnic clashes have claimed more than 75 lives, was alarming and questioned the continued silence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Governance and policies in a secular, democratic country must give rise to a tide that will lift all boats. In that view, the NDA government has totally failed in the last nine years, he said.
What is worse is that the government does not even make an effort to correct its mistakes and govern for all the people, he said.
The Reserve Bank of India recently announced withdrawal of Rs 2000 notes from circulation and asked people to deposit it in banks or get it exchanged by September 30.
"The thoughtless - some would even say foolish - introduction of the Rs 2,000 note (which the people shunned) and the mortifying spectacle of withdrawing the note have cast doubt on the integrity and stability of India's currency," Chidambaram said.
The first three quarters of 2022-23 recorded growth rates of 13.2, 6.3 and 4.4 per cent, a declining trend. The present situation is a far cry from the average of nine per cent growth rate that marked the boom years between 2004 and 2009, he said.
The Indian economy is growing modestly at a much-reduced pace facing serious issues of unemployment, inflation, widening inequalities and stumbling welfare programmes, he said.

Sunday Times reports that British engine maker Rolls-Royce is expected to cut about 3,000 non-manufacturing staff

Rolls Royce layoff: British engine maker likely to cut 3000 jobs 

Sunday Times reports that British engine maker Rolls-Royce is expected to cut about 3,000 non-manufacturing staff

After tech and consulting firms, prominent provider of engines - Rolls Royce is now planning to sack employees.&nbsp;
According to a report by The Sunday Times, Rolls Royce is planning to slash thousands of jobs, around 3,000 'non-manufacturing employees', as it aims to cut costs and and streamline operations.&nbsp;
The report further added that the company has also reportedly hired consultants from McKinsey &amp; Co. to help it in planning and executing these layoffs.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson from Rolls-Royce told Reuters that no decisions had been made regarding any potential impact on employees. They emphasized that the claims of layoffs were baseless and purely speculative.
Tufan Erginbilgic, the chief executive of Rolls-Royce in January, has said Rolls-Royce, which provides engines for Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 planes, is a "burning platform" which needs to improve its cash generation, cut debt and invest for the future.&nbsp;

In the scheme for 2022, flats in the economically weaker section category were offered in a price range of Rs 7.91 lakh to Rs 12.42 lakh, while lower income group category flats were available for Rs 18.10 lakh to Rs 22.8 lakh

DDA likely to launch its 2023 housing scheme in June; to offer 23,000 flats in Delhi

In the scheme for 2022, flats in the economically weaker section category were offered in a price range of Rs 7.91 lakh to Rs 12.42 lakh, while lower income group category flats were available for Rs 18.10 lakh to Rs 22.8 lakh

The Delhi Development Authority (DDA) is likely to launch its housing scheme for 2023 in June. The scheme will be offering about 23,000 newly constructed flats for the lower income group and economically weaker section.
The flats will be allotted through a computerised draw of lots and the majority of the flats are located in Narela. The scheme will be launched only after the approval from the authority meeting. After the launch applications will be invited. However, the final price of the flats will be decided before the formal launch.&nbsp;
As per Moneycontrol, in the scheme for 2022, flats in the economically weaker section category were offered in a price range of Rs 7.91 lakh to Rs 12.42 lakh, while lower income group category flats were available for Rs 18.10 lakh to Rs 22.8 lakh.
DDA currently has about 40,000 unsold flats in Narela, Dwarka, and Jasola. As per reports, the flats are not sold due to lack of infrastructure and connectivity. The DDA has also facilitated the construction of metro corridor along the Rithala-Bawana-Narela section.&nbsp;
The DDA has also said that individuals who already own a flat or plot in Delhi can apply.

33.6% of women worked overtime in factories in 2019 as compared to 27.9% of men in the same period

Share of women overworking in factories surge; at 11-year high in 2019

33.6% of women worked overtime in factories in 2019 as compared to 27.9% of men in the same period

A latest data released by the labour bureau has shown that the share of women working overtime in factories has increased to 33.6% in 2019. This is a 11-year high. In 2008, the share of women working overtime was 39.2%.
Meanwhile, only 27.9% of men worked more than the statutorily-mandated hours. This is from a compilation of data furnished by states and union territories. As per the Factories Act, 1948 the maximum mandated working hour is 48 hours in a week.&nbsp;
As per the data, 58.5% of the women worked between 45 and 48 hours weekly compared to 64.6% of male workers. However only 3.1% of the men worked less than 42 hours as compared to 4.5% of women.
Tamil Nadu tops the list where women worked over time followed by Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. Men employed in these working factories include 77.7% and women include 22.2%.
Recently, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka made changes in their application of the Factories Act that allows 12 hour shifts and the easing of rules for night-time work for women.&nbsp;

According to the PwC analysis, UPI accounted for over 75% of the retail segment's total transaction volume between 2022 and 2023

UPI will handle 90% of retail digital payments by 2026–2027: PwC India

According to the PwC analysis, UPI accounted for over 75% of the retail segment's total transaction volume between 2022 and 2023

UPI transactions are forecast to grow steadily and reach 1 billion per day by 2026&ndash;2027, making up 90% of all retail digital payments in the nation, according to a PwC India estimate.
The PwC research titled "The Indian Payments Handbook - 2022-27" stated that the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which is leading the digital payments revolution, accounted for nearly 75% of the overall transaction volume in the retail industry during 2022&ndash;23.
According to the report, over the next five years, UPI is expected to handle 90% of all retail digital payment transactions.
According to the report, the Indian digital payments market expanded steadily at a CAGR of 50% (volume-wise) and is predicted to increase to 411 billion transactions in FY 2026&ndash;27 from 103 billion in FY 2022&ndash;23.
By FY2026&ndash;2027, it is predicted that UPI will record 1 billion transactions every day, up from 83.71 billion in 2022&ndash;2023 to 379 billion in 2026&ndash;2027.
It added that, after UPI, cards (both debit and credit) payments are one of the most popular retail digital payment methods, and the credit card market in particular, is still expanding at a strong rate. By FY 2024&ndash;2025, credit card usage is anticipated to outpace debit card usage in terms of transaction volume.
According to the PwC estimate, the credit card industry would generate close to 76% of all card sales in 2022&ndash;2023, making it a lucrative market for banks, NBFCs, and FinTech.
According to the report, the revenue from credit card issuance climbed by 42% in 2022&ndash;2023 compared to 2021&ndash;2022 and is anticipated to expand by a CAGR of 33% over the following five years.&nbsp;

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New Parliament

IPL 2023

Mukesh&nbsp;Ambani&nbsp;is dressing up Reliance's acquisition&nbsp;portfolio&nbsp;this festive season.&nbsp;Reliance Brands Limited (RBL) will acquire a 40 per cent stake in Manish Malhotra's&nbsp;deign brand&nbsp;in MM Styles Pvt. Ltd.&nbsp;This is the most prominent buy by the&nbsp;Reliance Brands in the luxury ethnic wear market though the company did not disclose the deal size. Mukesh&nbsp;Ambani's Reliance already has&nbsp;Satya Paul&nbsp; part of its portfolio and also has invested in Indian menswear designer Raghavendra Rathore&rsquo;s eponymous label.For the popular designer&nbsp;Manish Malhotra, this is the first&nbsp;external investment for &nbsp;brand, which has been privately held by the creator&nbsp;himself.&nbsp;
The brand will continue to be led by Malhotra as the managing and creative director.&nbsp;Malhotra, a self-taught designer, found his calling designing costumes for blockbuster Bollywood films.


Reliance brands to acquire 40% stake in Manish Malhotra's designer label

Mukesh Ambani is dressing up Reliance's acquisition portfolio this festive season with Manish Malhotra's brand investment

Reliance acquires stake in Manish Malhotra's brand

Currently, Malhotra runs four flagship stores in the country, apart from two shop-in-shops.

Mukesh&nbsp;Ambani&nbsp;is dressing up Reliance's acquisition&nbsp;portfolio&nbsp;this festive season.&nbsp;Reliance Brands Limited (RBL) will acquire a 40 per cent stake in Manish Malhotra's&nbsp;design brand&nbsp;in MM Styles Pvt. Ltd. This is the first external investment by Manish&nbsp;Malhotra&nbsp;who has been designing for bollywood&nbsp;for over 3 decades.&nbsp;From designing looks for actors including Sridevi,&nbsp;Kajol, Raveena Tandon, Aishwarya Rai Bachchan to the generation of Kareena Kapoor Khan,&nbsp;Alia Bhatt, Janhvi Kapoor, and many others, Manish has been telling stories through all his creations for years.&nbsp; This is the most prominent buy by the&nbsp;Reliance Brands in the luxury ethnic wear market though the company did not disclose the deal size. Mukesh&nbsp;Ambani's Reliance already has&nbsp;Satya Paul part of its portfolio and also has invested in Indian menswear designer Raghavendra Rathore&rsquo;s eponymous label.&nbsp;

The source indicated that suspension of flights would be extended by a few more days as DGCA will take time to take a final decision on the revival road map submitted to it

Go First executives discuss revival plans with DGCA officials

The source indicated that suspension of flights would be extended by a few more days as DGCA will take time to take a final decision on the revival road map submitted to it

Senior executives of crisis-hit Go First, which is undergoing insolvency resolution process, on Monday discussed its revival plans with officials of aviation regulator DGCA, according to a source.
The meeting, held in the national capital, came against the backdrop of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), last week, asking the grounded airline to submit its revival plan within 30 days.
The budget carrier, filed a petition for voluntary insolvency resolution proceedings on May 2, citing its inability to carry out operations due to non-delivery of engines by the US engine maker Pratt &amp; Whitney. The plea of the airline, which has not flown since May 3, was admitted by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) on May 10.
"DGCA had called the entire management team of Go First on Monday to discuss the resumption plan. At the meeting, the team presented the road map for revival of operations," a source told PTI on the condition of anonymity.
Without divulging specific details, the source said that all stakeholders are keen to see the airline taking wings again.
"The airline will shortly come out with a way forward. As of now, it is heading in the right direction," the source said.
Currently, the airline has suspended operations till May 30.
The source indicated that suspension of flights would be extended by a few more days as DGCA will take time to take a final decision on the revival road map submitted to it.
Meanwhile, Go First has offered its captains Rs 1 lakh per month as "retention allowance," in addition to their salary, as per a communication sent out to them on Sunday.
"First officers, in addition to their present salary, will get an additional Rs 50,000 per month as retention allowance," it said.
These allowances will be paid from June.

The unemployment rate in July-September 2022 and October-December 2022 was 7.2 per cent only. It was 7.6 per cent in April-June 2022

Unemployment in India: rate dips to 6.8% in January-March 2023 shows govt survey	

The unemployment rate in July-September 2022 and October-December 2022 was 7.2 per cent only. It was 7.6 per cent in April-June 2022

The unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 6.8 per cent during January-March 2023 from 8.2 per cent a year ago, the National Sample Survey Survey (NSSO) showed.
Joblessness or unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force.
Joblessness was high in January-March 2022, mainly due to the staggering impact of Covid-related restrictions in the country.
The unemployment rate in July-September 2022 and October-December 2022 was 7.2 per cent only. It was 7.6 per cent in April-June 2022.
The unemployment rate (UR) for persons aged 15 years and above in April-June 2022 was 7.6 per cent in urban areas, the 18th Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) showed.
In January-March 2022, the unemployment rate was 8.2 per cent.
It also showed that the unemployment rate among females (aged 15 years and above) in urban areas declined to 9.2 per cent in January-March 2023 from 10.1 per cent in the same quarter a year ago. It was 9.6 per cent in October-December 2022, 9.4 per cent in July-September 2022 and 9.5 per cent in April-June 2022.
Among males, the unemployment rate in urban areas dipped to six per cent in January-March 2023 compared to 7.7 per cent in the same quarter a year ago. It was 6.5 per cent in October-December 2022, 6.6 per cent in July-September 2022 and 7.1 per cent in April-June 2022.
Labour force participation rate in CWS (Current Weekly Status) in urban areas for persons aged 15 years and above increased to 48.5 per cent in the January-March quarter of 2023, from 47.3 per cent in the same period a year ago. It was 48.2 per cent in October-December 2022, 47.9 per cent in July-September 2022 and 47.5 per cent in April-June 2022.
Labour force refers to the part of the population, which supplies or offers to supply labour for pursuing economic activities for the production of goods and services and, therefore, includes both employed and unemployed persons.
NSSO launched PLFS in April 2017. On the basis of PLFS, a quarterly bulletin is brought out giving estimates of labour force indicators namely unemployment rate, Worker Population Ratio (WPR), Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), distribution of workers by broad status in employment and industry of work in CWS.
The estimates of unemployed persons in CWS give an average picture of unemployment in a short span of seven days during the survey period. In the CWS approach, a person is considered unemployed if he/she did not work even for one hour on any day during the week but sought or was available for work at least for one hour on any day during the period.
Labour force, according to CWS, is the number of persons either employed or unemployed on average in a week preceding the date of the survey. LFPR is defined as the percentage of the population in the labour force.
The WPR (in per cent) in CWS in urban areas for persons aged 15 years and above stood at 45.2 per cent in January-March 2023, up from 43.4 per cent in the same period a year ago. It was 44.7 per cent in October-December 2022, 44.5 per cent in July-September 2022 and 43.9 per cent in April-June, 2022.
The present quarterly bulletin is the eighteenth in the series for the quarter January-March 2023.&nbsp;

Go First's captains currently earn about 530,000 rupees a month on average, according to data on AmbitionBox, compared with 750,000 rupees at SpiceJet 

Go First offers 1 lakh over and above salary to retain pilots

Go First's captains currently earn about 530,000 rupees a month on average, according to data on AmbitionBox, compared with 750,000 rupees at SpiceJet&nbsp;

Go First, which is undergoing insolvency resolution proceedings, is planning give retention allowance to its pilots.&nbsp;
According to a report by Bloomberg, debt- ridden airline plans to raise salaries of captains by 100,000 rupees ($1,211) a month and by 50,000 rupees for first officers as it tries to salvage its operations after filing for insolvency on May 2.&nbsp;
Not only this, the offer is also to those who have left the company but are willing to withdraw their resignations by June 15.
The additional pay, which the airline calls a retention allowance, will come into effect on June 1, according to an email to pilots seen by Bloomberg News.
Last week, Aviation watchdog DGCA had asked cash-strapped Go First to submit a comprehensive plan for the revival of its operations, including details about the availability of operational planes and pilots, within 30 days.
The no-frills carrier, which is undergoing a voluntary insolvency resolution process, stopped flying on May 3 and lessors are looking to take back aircraft leased to the carrier.

ECB uses monthly data from 121 countries on consumer price indexes and climatic conditions

Climate change to keep inflation high: European Central Bank's latest report

Warmer temperatures will boost annual food inflation by between 0.92 and a hefty 3.23 percentage points, the research paper found

Did you know climate change is a secret driver of inflation? As per European Central Bank's data driven research from 121 countries, climate change is likely to be a big contributor to global inflation in the next decade. As temperatures rise, the impact on inflation will be more.&nbsp;
In the report published this week, analysts predicted rising temperatures mean annual inflation will be between 0.32 to 1.18 percentage points higher by 2035. That will create problems for consumers as well as policy makers, with the ECB&rsquo;s target to keep inflation at 2%.
The research paper found that warmer temperatures will boost annual food inflation by between 0.92 and a hefty 3.23 percentage points.&nbsp; &ldquo;Climate change poses risks to price stability by having an upward impact on inflation,&rdquo; said the researchers Maximilian Kotz, Friderike Kuik, Eliza Lis and Christiane Nickel. That would &ldquo;place global incomes under pressure from rising prices and could impact inflation expectations, thereby requiring monetary policy to react.&rdquo;
ECB uses monthly data from 121 countries on consumer price indexes and climatic conditions. They use indicators based on monthly and daily temperatures, excess wet and drought conditions, and extreme daily rainfall.

In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent

RBI may reduce policy rate in fourth quarter of 2024: Oxford Economics

In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent

Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday said the RBI may cut key benchmark policy rate in the fourth quarter of the current calendar year as a mix of factors will allow the central bank to shift focus and adopt a more accommodative policy stance sooner.
It further said inflation has already begun easing, and consumer inflation expectations are falling, so attention has shifted from estimating the peak level of the current hiking cycle to the timing of rate cuts.
"We are updating our baseline view for India to include a first rate cut by the RBI in Q4 2023.
"We think a mix of factors will allow the RBI to shift focus and adopt a more accommodative policy stance sooner," Oxford Economics said.
It noted that despite easing price pressures recently, risks to inflation over the remainder of the year are to the upside.
"The MPC will want to see clear signs that inflation is stabilising in the middle of its target range before considering a dovish move &ndash; in our view this will happen before the end of the year," the global forecasting firm said.
While pointing out that high-frequency indicators for India still suggest robust activity, it said, but activity has clearly begun to slow.
"After a resilient first quarter, the global economic slowdown is set to identify and there are significant risks of a long and deep downturn that will transmit from advanced to emerging economies, including India," it said.
The RBI has been tasked to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent (with margin of 2 per cent on either side).
In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent.
Prior to it, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was on a rate hiking spree, raising the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022.
Last week, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said inflation has moderated, and the next print is expected to be lower than 4.7 per cent though there is no room for complacency and the war on inflation will continue.
Retail inflation fell to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April, mainly due to cooling food prices.
The governor, however, had emphasised that although inflation has moderated, there is no room for complacency.
For the current financial year, he said the RBI has projected a growth rate of 6.5 per cent.

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