Highlights

  • US inflation at a 40-year high
  • Yield curves have inverted to indicate recession ahead

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Markets now pricing in a 75 bps hike, the big question is how many more?

The Federal Reserve concludes a two-day rate-setting meeting on Wednesday and the markets are bracing for a big hike jolt. Most Wall Street firms are expecting a 75 bps hike, a quantum not done by the Fed since 1994.

The Fed rate hike is a game-changer as just a month ago Chairman Powell had almost ruled out the possibility of a 75 bps move but fast-moving inflation has changed the equation. The United States is facing stubbornly high inflation currently clocking in at a 40 year high.

Data showed the consumer price index increased 8.6% in the 12 months through May, the most in 40 years. The Fed has a goal of 2% inflation.

The worry of not one but multiple big rate hikes to counter this cost of living crisis has pushed the US markets into the clutches of bear territory with the broader S&P500 falling over 20% for the year and the tech index Nasdaq shaving off over 30% for the year so far.

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