Highlights

  • India may project 7% GDP growth FY24, aligns with RBI's estimate
  • Infrastructure push fuels India's robust economic performance

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India likely to set GDP growth forecast at 7% for FY24

RBI recently upgraded its growth forecast for the ongoing fiscal year to 7%, surpassing its earlier projection of 6.5%. This upward revision stemmed from a robust Q2 performance. 

India likely to set GDP growth forecast at 7% for FY24

India is poised to maintain its growth trajectory by likely setting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast at approximately 7% for the fiscal year 2023-24, aligning with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) revised estimate. This move solidifies India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy. The National Statistical Office is scheduled to unveil the initial advance GDP estimates today, reflecting the country's economic performance.

The RBI recently upgraded its growth forecast for the ongoing fiscal year to 7%, surpassing its earlier projection of 6.5%. This upward revision stemmed from a robust second-quarter performance that exceeded expectations, with economic expansion surging to 7.6%.

Michael Patra, the Deputy Governor of the RBI, characterized the revised forecast as a "conservative estimate," acknowledging the robust growth evident in various high-frequency indicators. India's economic landscape has been bolstered by the Modi government's emphasis on infrastructure development, elevating the country's economic growth and earning global acclaim as a significant growth beacon, reported Reuters.

The unexpectedly accelerated growth witnessed in the second quarter prompted several economists and agencies to revise their annual growth forecasts upward.

Market research firm S&P anticipates India, presently ranked as the world's fifth-largest economy, to register a growth rate of 6.4% for the ongoing fiscal year, with a projected surge to 7% by the fiscal year 2026-27. In contrast, S&P expects China's growth to decelerate to 4.6% by 2026, down from an estimated 5.4% for the current year.

Economists speculate that the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to reduce the benchmark policy rate, currently at 6.5%, over the coming quarters due to concerns regarding potential spikes in food inflation, particularly in an election year. This cautious approach aims to ensure stable economic conditions despite the risks posed by inflationary pressures.

Also Watch: India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q1FY24


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