Sydney, Jun 27 (The Conversation) Understanding climate change involves measuring temperature changes over time, a method often complicated by natural fluctuations. However, observing the flow of heat into and out of Earth's atmosphere, known as Earth's energy budget, provides a clearer picture. This budget is alarmingly out of balance now.
Recent studies, including ours, indicate that this imbalance has more than doubled over 20 years, supported by other researchers’ findings. Current measurements show a larger imbalance than what climate models anticipated.
In the mid-2000s, the energy imbalance was approximately 0.6 watts per square meter (W/m²). Recently, it averages about 1.3 W/m², illustrating a doubled rate of energy accumulation at the planet's surface.
These outcomes suggest a potential acceleration of climate change. Compounding the problem, financial uncertainties in the U.S. jeopardize the ability to monitor heat flows accurately.
The balance between solar energy entering Earth and heat leaving resembles a bank account where energy is the currency. Life relies on this balance, but it’s now tipping.
Solar energy warms Earth, and heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere retain some of this energy. However, the combustion of fossil fuels has added over two trillion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, trapping more heat and reducing its escape.
The extra heat primarily warms the oceans, due to their substantial heat capacity, while smaller amounts melt ice and warm land.
Earth releases heat by reflecting it off clouds, snow, and ice, and through the emission of infrared radiation. Historically, Earth's average surface temperature was about 14°C. The energy imbalance now raises this by 1.3-1.5°C.
Scientists utilize two methods to track the energy budget. The first method involves measuring solar heat and its emission back to space using satellite radiometers, dating back to the late 1980s. The second method involves measuring heat buildup in oceans and the atmosphere with robotic floats since the 1990s.
Both methods reveal a rapid growth in the energy imbalance. The doubling of the imbalance is surprising, as climate models have not predicted such swift changes.
Models typically forecast less than half the observed changes.
We have yet to fully explain this rapid change, but evolving cloud patterns may be significant. While clouds generally cool, highly reflective clouds have decreased, and less reflective clouds have increased.
Possible reasons for cloud changes include reduced sulfur in shipping fuel since 2020, but this imbalance began before those efforts. Natural climate system fluctuations and the warming-induced feedback on clouds may also play roles.
These insights suggest that recent heat extremes may signal stronger, prolonged warming, leading to more severe climate impacts like intense heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.
Long-term consequences might be severe. Recent research indicates that models closely simulating reality have higher climate sensitivity, predicting intensified warming if emissions continue uncurbed.
While it remains unclear if other factors are involved, determining a high-sensitivity path is premature.
Ceasing fossil fuel use and curbing activities like deforestation are long-known solutions. Maintaining meticulous long-term records is crucial for recognizing unexpected changes.
Satellites serve as an early warning system, identifying heat storage changes about a decade ahead of other methods. However, U.S. funding cuts and priority changes may threaten essential climate monitoring.
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