Here’s how some countries fared in the Apr-Jun 2020 quarter after COVID-19 brought the world to its knees.
India’s GDP contracted by 23.9% compared to Apr-Jun 2019. In comparison to Jan-Mar 2020, the GDP contracted by 29.3%.
Notably China registered a positive growth. But it is to be noted that China faced the worst of the pandemic in Jan-Mar 2020 and started recovering in Apr-Jun 2020.
A more meaningful comparison would be to compare GDP trends during quarters that respective countries were worst affected by COVID
Interestingly, China’s 27% QoQ slump in Jan-Mar 2020 translates to 7% YoY slump.
Historically China sees a QoQ GDP slump of 16-17% every year during Jan-Mar.
The Chinese New Year holidays in this quarter lead to massive reduction of industrial output for almost a month - almost like an annual lockdown.
If we look at absolute GDP figures in dollars, China saw a slump of almost a trillion dollars in Jan-Mar compared to previous quarter
India saw a shrinkage of 152 billion dollars in the Apr-Jun quarter
In the last part of this series we will have a look at GDP trends in India over the last decade and possible recovery from the COVID blues.