With the launch of the new iPhone 15 expected to occur within a few days, prominent tech analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts a potential shift in the balance of smartphone brand dominance worldwide.
According to Kuo, Apple might seize the opportunity to attain superiority over the existing global leader, Samsung, largely driven by a predicted iPhone shipment target of 250 million units come 2024.
Kuo's estimations present a possible variation in the smartphone market dynamic, heralding Apple's rise to the crown.
Based upon a superior market demand outlook, Kuo expects a 5-10 percent year-on-year growth in iPhone shipments, a development that may see Apple surpass Samsung.
He highlights the latter's conservative view on market demand, which could lead to Apple retaining the largest smartphone brand title in 2024.
According to recent information, Samsung's smartphone shipments for the current year have dropped to around 220 million units.
Kuo indicates that if Apple were to keep pace with its shipment targets, it could surpass Samsung in smartphone shipments, with estimates reaching 220-225 million units by 2023.
"This shipment ranking has a long-term positive impact on Apple’s ecosystem," Kuo explains.
He points to the potential influence of shipment dominance on Apple's larger ecosystem, hinting at the possible ripple effects that may result from this market shift.
Some perspectives within the market frame a concern, anticipating that iPhone 15 shipments could further diminish due to challenges in the supply chain.
Particularly, it's expected that the elite iPhone 15 Pro Max may be subject to delayed shipments.
However, Kuo argues differently. He states, "the fact is that the iPhone 15 Pro Max will start mass shipments this week, and Apple is also increasing shipments of legacy models simultaneously," refuting the concerns for supply chain issues.
Kuo points out the overly cautious view on the part of the market regarding iPhone/iPhone 15 shipment estimates for the second half of 2024.
This has subsequently led to a correction in Apple's stock price and a favourable trading sentiment towards new product announcements.
According to Kuo, this situation may offer Apple stock an opportunity to rebound in the near term.